As the second half of the season looms, the contenders to finish “in the money” in fantasy hoops leagues have been established. Most likely your league’s standings look like the following: a few teams at the top battling to earn first place; a handful of teams scrapping to essentially win back their entry fee and finish third; and lowly bottom-feeders desperate to avoid the dubious distinction of finishing last.
As of the All-Star Break, my 9-CAT squad is locked in a first-place tie and my 8-CAT squad is in fourth place but on the rise (thank you, Jeremy Lin!) and a good week from second place. Hopefully you drafted smartly, have traded wisely and had a bit of luck in acquiring a significant free agent or two to put your team in similar positions.
As of today, there are four major intangibles that will greatly impact the rest of this fantasy basketball season.
The first is injuries, which began before the season even started (Brook Lopez) and have continued to plague star players on a weekly basis. Eric Gordon has played but two games this season and will not return until April. Will Derrick Rose’s balky back flare up? When Zach Randolph returns, what impact if any will he have on Marc Gasol’s amazing season? What’s up with Manu Ginobili?
The second intangible is the March 15 trade deadline. The two biggest dominoes with potential to fall are Dwight Howard and Deron Williams, both impending free agents who’ve refused to re-sign with their current clubs. It would be devastating to the future of the Magic and Nets to let either superstar play out the season, watch them walk and have nothing to show when the dust settles.
Unless Howard is traded to New Jersey in the next few weeks to form a dynamic duo with D-Will, Williams will most likely seek a new team to take his talents to next season. Thus, it would behoove the organization to move Williams prior to the deadline and get something – anything. And when a major cog such as Williams is dealt, another cog takes his place, meaning their fantasy value goes from minimal to potentially significant.
The third intangible is player reaction to an All-Star snub. Pau Gasol – also on the trading block – seemingly played with a ferocious level of intensity this past week. The term “All-Star Snub” has perhaps been redefined in honor of Josh Smith.
The fourth and final intangible is the ability for surprise players to maintain a high level of fantasy production. Lin and Ricky Rubio have made substantial impacts on fantasy basketball this season. Will Rubio hit the dreaded “rookie wall?” Will the Miami Heat’s complete emasculation of Lin this week mark the beginning of the end of “Linsanity?”
Here are 8 players to closely watch over the season’s second half:
Brook Lopez, New Jersey
Analysis: The third-round fantasy pick finally made his season debut this past week. In leagues with position requirements, quality centers can be difficult to come by. I had Lopez projected for season averages of 22 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.4 blocks and 4.9 free throws made, on 51.5 FG%. Will Williams or Jordan Farmar be his point guard the final month of the season in New Jersey? Or will Lopez play the final month in Orlando, flip-flopping teams with Howard? Is Lopez’s damaged foot completely healed? How long will the Nets limit his play to just 25 minutes? In our 8-CAT league I offered Nicolas Batum for Lopez and was turned down. Time will tell if my peer or I will have made out best in this trade that didn’t happen.
Manu Ginobili, San Antonio
Analysis: Other than Andrei Kirilenko, Ginobili may be my all-time favorite fantasy hoops player. I of course drafted him in our 8-CAT league, and punched my computer screen when someone else drafted him in our 9-CAT league. As Manu has played in 80 or more of the Spurs’ games exactly once in his 10-year career, I am well-versed in his proclivity for injury. But this season has been especially frustrating to me, as it was just last season Ginobili played those 80 games, and he was off to a tremendous start this season (in four games and 25.8 minutes, he averaged 19.8 points and 3.3 threes while shooting a white-hot 60.5 FG%) before succumbing to a broken left hand. After four unproductive games upon his return, Ginobili strained his left oblique and has since missed his past three games. Is 2011-12 a lost season for Ginobili’s fantasy owners?
Jordan Farmar, New Jersey
Analysis: If Williams is traded, Farmer is all but guaranteed to take over as the starter at the point. As noted in last week’s column, in 18 starts for the Nets last season, Farmar averaged 13.7 points, 1.5 threes, 9.1 assists and one steal. Those are quality numbers for a number two or three fantasy guard. Williams’ value most likely remains constant regardless of where he plays. Farmar’s value potentially skyrockets if Williams is dealt by March 15.
Jerryd Bayless, Toronto
Analysis: Jose Calderon has been quite the pleasant fantasy surprise this season, notably in 9-CAT leagues with his crazy 4.68 assists/turnovers. The point guard’s name is becoming increasingly popular among trade rumors. Should Calderon be dealt, you would be safe to surmise Bayless is the beneficiary and becomes the starting point guard in Toronto. Bayless has started six games this season, averaging 14.5 points and two threes. Last season, he started 14 games and averaged 18.1 points, 6.7 assists, 1.2 threes, 4.6 free throws made, one steal and shot 46.7 FG%.
Josh Smith, Atlanta
Analysis: When Joe Johnson’s injury forced him out of the All-Star Game, it was Rajon Rondo, rather than Johnson’s teammate, who got the nod from the commissioner’s office. After the snub, J-Smoove went off against Phoenix for 30 points, 17 rebounds, seven assists, three blocks and four steals, plus two threes. Nervous owners – not knowing how the mercurial talent would react to the snub – breathed a deep sigh of relief. After the double-snub, fantasy owners again will pray Smith continues to take out his anger by putting up ridiculous stat lines on the rest of the league.
Pau Gasol, LA Lakers
Analysis: Like Smoove, fantasy owners want to know if Gasol plays better when angered. Not only was Gasol arguably snubbed from this season’s All-Star Game, but he also was nearly traded just prior to the season and has stayed on the trading block. By his lofty standards, Gasol had a subpar December and January. Regardless, the Spaniard felt he earned an All-Star berth and is disappointed in Lakers’ management for allowing him to blow in the trade winds all season. Since All-Star reserves were named, Gasol has averaged 17.6 points, 11.9 rebounds and 3.6 assists, his best stretch of the season. Will he be traded by March 15? If so, to where? And how will his fantasy production by affected?
Jeremy Lin, New York
Analysis: Even David Stern said he’s never seen anything during his tenure as NBA commissioner like the “Linsanity” that has consumed the league. In 11 games as a starting guard, Lin has provided fantasy owners first-round value, averaging 22.4 points, 8.8 assists, 4.0 rebounds, 1.2 threes, 5.5 free throws made, 2.5 steals and shot 47.3 FG%. Can Lin possibly maintain this type of production? Can he mesh his game with Carmelo Anthony? Did the Heat provide the league with a blueprint on how to defend Lin? I got lucky and outbid another owner for Lin. My philosophy is to just ride the wave while it lasts.
Ricky Rubio, Minnesota
After playing 34 games and averaging 34.9 minutes, Rubio’s fantasy numbers clearly have declined. Comparing his stats from January to February, Rubio’s rebounds (4.7 to 3.5) and assists (9.1 to 7.5) are down, and his turnovers are up (3.3 to 3.6). Like Lin, how many minutes can Rubio’s inexperienced legs log as a first-year starter? Minnesota is fighting for a playoff berth, so the intensity of his games only will increase as the season progresses. When will Rubio hit the “wall,” and will he crash and burn?
Marc Kravitz, based in Philadelphia, provides Quality Assurance Mystery Shopper services to Restaurants throughout the Mid-Atlantic region. He is a Mixed Martial Arts fanatic and Fantasy Basketball junkie. In Fantasy Hoops, “Krewtime” has finished “in the money” in 85% of the leagues he has participated in. Follow Marc’s fantasy advice on Twitter @Marc_Kravitz