What are we going to learn in tonight’s big Heat-Bulls matchup in Chicago?
Hopefully, we’ll find out which stars can show some fourth-quarter moxie. But the better Chicago-Miami game to look forward to will happen next Thursday, when a clearer picture of playoff positioning possibilities will have emerged.
There is a case to be made that it is better to be the No. 2 seed than the No. 1 seed, because it might mean an easier path to the conference finals — a dynamic I discussed with CineSport’s Noah Coslov in the above video.
The No. 1 seed may have to play a first-round series against a New York Knicks team that has been surging, and then possibly face a Boston Celtics team that has been clicking particularly well lately and defeated the Heat twice in the past 10 days.
Of course, much of that depends on whether Indiana stays in front of Boston in the standings to secure the No. 3 seed. If the Pacers and Celtics finish with the same record, Boston gets the tiebreaker (and the No. 3 seed) by being a division winner.
In the last 21 seasons, 35 of 42 #1 seeds (83%) have gone as far as the conference finals. That number drops all the way down to 50% – 21 of 42 – for #2 seeds.
Since the 1991 playoffs, 76% of higher seeds have won their second round matchup. This is about what you’d expect. If seedings hold up in the first round, you’ll see the 1 seed beat the 4 or 5 almost all the time, and the 2 beats the 3 (or the 6) just over half the time – which explains the previous stat.
In the conference finals, the winning percentage for the higher seed drops down to 58%. It’s still an advantage worth having, and worth working hard in the regular season to attain, but it’s not as definitive as prior rounds.
Here’s the one that just floored me, though – and this is the one that really matters to Miami if you look at the standings now:
17 of the last 21 NBA Championships have been won by the team with home court in the Finals. 81%.
Right now the Heat are tied in the loss column with the Spurs and Thunder. So even conceding the East to Miami, two decades of history says that if they don’t earn home court against their Finals opponent, they have only a 1 in 5 chance of winning that series. Dallas beating Miami despite the Heat having home court last year was an outlier. So whether they know it or not, every game matters to Miami now.