Russia’s done it with force, Spain with savvy, Team USA with unparalleled athleticism and Brazil with—well, Brazil’s undefeated, too.
The South Americans barely snuck by the Aussies in the opener and withstood an indescribably impotent, four-point first quarter to keep Great Britain winless in game two. Thanks to that soft schedule and the even softer touch on Marcelinho Huertas’ floaters, Ruben Magnano’s squad are among the four teams with zeroes in the loss column.
The ranks of the undefeated will shrink by at least one Thursday when Brazil goes up against Andrei Kirilenko, Viktor Khryapa and Sasha Kaun of Russia.
With those six gangly arms protecting the rim, Huertas will have to heave those floaters a little higher than usual, and he’ll need more consistency around him than he’s gotten in the first two frames.
If help arrives, Brazil can keep their record spotless and join the medal conversation. If not, then Russia keeps one foot on the podium.
Let’s pick us some winners, shall we?
Group A
France (1-1, 5th) vs. Lithuania (1-1, 3rd) | Tip: 4:00 AM EST
Nicolas Batum hit a two, a three, and then assisted on France’s third bucket against Argentina, and that’s exactly the hot start Vincent Collet needs out of his small forward. I’d even categorize his goaltending violation in the first few minutes as a positive; making an aggressive mistake beats floating around with his hands stapled to his hips.
Containing Tony Parker is obviously a priority, and nobody on Lithuania can do it alone. In last summer’s EuroBasket, Kestutis Kemzura spun a carousel of defenders at quick ball handlers—Milos Teodosic, Bo McCalebb and even Parker himself—so expect Mantas Kalnieits, Martynas Pocius and even the cagey vet, Sarunas Jasikevicius, to give it a whirl.
And as long as Parker’s goggles are making the rim look fuzzy (8-of-21 from the floor, 0-of-7 from three), Kalnietis & Co. should slide right under those picks and make him convert from outside.
Figuring out who hedges on which screens is even more important than who applies initial ball pressure, so Paulius Jankunas, Darius Songaila and the other Lithuanian bigs will need to be even more active than usual to keep TP out of the lane.
Given Jonas Valanciunas’ history of foul trouble, he’ll need to be extra cautious when the situation calls for a switch. Lithuania’s at their best when the 20-year-old is diving toward the rim and finishing around the rim, not brooding on the sideline in his warm-ups.
The Pick: Lithuania by 4
Argentina (1-1, 2nd) vs. Tunisia (0-2, 6th) | Tip: 9:30 AM EST
Both teams are coming off losses, but only one has the firepower to make amends on Thursday. If you caught any of Team USA’s game on Tuesday night, you might have surmised that Tunisia is not that team.
Of the five players averaging 20 or more in these Olympics, coach Julio Lamas has two of them in Luis Scola and Manu Ginobili. Quite the luxury.
An even grander luxury? The chance to give those old horses a rest in favor of an underutilized, unproven bench. If Argentina can push the lead above 20, Lamas should send a fresh five to the scorer’s table.
Hopefully that leads to an epic duel between 5’10” point guards Facundo Campazzo and Marouan Kechrid because, really, that’s why we’re all here.
The Pick: Argentina by 25
USA (2-0, 1st) vs. Nigeria (1-1, 4th) | 5:15 PM EST
After USA’s 47-point destruction of Tunisia, the betting lines for Nigeria and the States have shot into the forties. If you call yourself a gambler, I’d throw some money (naira, if you’ve got some) on the Aminu Brothers.
Nigeria is not Tunisia, nor should they be treated as such. Salah Mejri and Macrah Ben Romdhane were the only Tunisians worth boxing out on Thursday, while Nigeria has the bodies to board with Team USA for 40 minutes. Their front court of Ike Diogu, the Hornets’ Al-Farouq Aminu and his older brother Alade is averaging 27 rebounds as a unit, and Nigeria as a team has snagged 41 offensive boards through two games.
But to grab O-boards you need to miss shots, and Nigeria’s Olympics-leading stats may be due to an excess of opportunity. The team is shooting 29 percent as a whole and a sickly 10 percent (3-of-29) from distance. Whereas Nigeria has one player making more than half his shots (Diogu), Team USA has seven.
And lastly: do you remember George Mason’s Final Four run in 2006? Of course you do. Tony Skinn ran point for the Patriots then, and he’ll be bringing the ball up the court for Nigeria tomorrow.
The Pick: USA by 27
Group B
Australia (0-2, 4th) vs. China (0-2, 6th) | 6:15 AM EST
Aleks Maric ripped the Euroleague to shreds during the 2009-10 season as he and Bo McCalebb led Partizan to a Final Four appearance in Paris. Maric was named to the All-Euroleague squad behind 14.6 points and 8.4 rebounds (in just 26 minutes per game) and that summer, both Serbia and Australia tugged at the 6’11” center in hopes that he’d join them in Turkey for the World Championships.
The center with dual citizenship chose to play in the country that birthed him, but three summers later Australia is still itching for that Partizan beast to resurface. So far in London, the 27-year-old Maric has eked out just two points, four boards and five fouls in a total of 18 minutes.
And that’s too bad, because Australia really could use him.
Few bigs in these Olympics have the international résumé of David Andersen—seven Euroleague Final Fours with three different teams, three Euroleague championships, two NBA seasons, both the 2004 and 2008 Olympics—but the 6’11” Boomer would rather stretch the floor than bang inside, and Matthew Nielsen is a scrapper, not a skills guy.
The door is open for Maric to thrive, especially when Aron Baynes is the only other center trying to squeeze through.
On the perimeter, it’s all about threes for Australia: keeping China from getting open looks on defense—they’ve made 12-of-29 from deep—and convincing Patty Mills (1-of-14) to stop shooting so many on the other end.
The Pick: Australia by 11
Brazil (2-0, 3rd) vs. Russia (2-0, 1st) | 11:45 AM EST
Leandro Barbosa and Anderson Varejao both played well against Australia. Then against Great Britain, Barbosa went silent as Varejao flopped and whined his way to a subdued stat line.
Tiago Splitter flipped the script, going 2-of-10 in the opener before blasting the Brits for 21 points on 9-of-11 shooting in game two.
Then there’s Nene, who’s been fairly mediocre since Muhammad Ali lit the torch.
And while Brazil’s legion of NBAers is having trouble stringing together solid outings, their Euroleague representative is picking up the slack. Marcelinho Huertas plays his club ball for Regal Barcelona in Spain, and he’s put Brazil on his back so far in the United Kingdom.
In a frightening display of what life without Marcelinho might look like, Brazil sat him for five minutes of the opening period against Great Britain and the result was disastrous: just four points scored in the entire quarter. The hosts lifted their foot from Brazil’s neck a little too early, but Russia has the length in their backcourt—6’6″ Alexey Shved, 6’8″ Anton Ponkrashov, 6’5″ Vitaly Firdzon—to harass the 6’3″ Marcelinho from the moment he crosses half court.
If it’s one thing Russia has plenty of it’s big, versatile forwards. And if there’s one thing Brazil lacks it’s…big, versatile forwards.
Brazil will have to get creative to limit Andrei Kirilenko and Viktor Khryapa’s touches inside the arc. That might mean more Marcus Vieira at small forward and it might even mean more Guillherme Giovannoni, who’s not especially fleet of foot but at least offers some height at the three.
No matter what Ruben Magnano dials up defensively, David Blatt will look to exploit Brazil’s personnel issues early and often.
The Pick: Russia by 8
Spain (2-0, 2nd) vs. Great Britain (0-2, 5th) | 3:00 PM EST
Pau Gasol missed all four of his threes in Beijing. Here in London, he’s already gotten two to fall.
But fans of British basketball—I promise they exist; I’ve even met a couple—should remember one particular Gasol triple very clearly.
It was EuroBasket 2009 in Poland, and Great Britain had battled back from down 14 to take an improbable lead in the fourth quarter. Then Pau, destroyer of miracles, knocked one in from the top of the key with 3:11 on the clock to recapture the lead for good and deprive Great Britain of their fledgling program’s biggest milestone.
Team GB gets another crack at Spain on Thursday, who will likely be missing scorer extraordinaire, Juan Carlos Navarro, with a foot injury. JCN’s absence takes a boat load of pressure off of Nate Reinking and especially Andrew Sullivan, who has picked up eight fouls in the first two games and would have had fits chasing a healthy Navarro around the arena.
Pops Mensah-Bonsu’s made it perfectly clear that he’s going up if you throw him the ball, and if Joel Freeland adopts the same attacking mentality they could force the Gasols and Serge Ibaka into foul trouble. Add Luol Deng’s potential mismatch at the two and you’ve got a recipe for British redemption.
The Pick: Spain by 14
Nick Gibson, editor of EuroleagueAdventures.com, covers the Euroleague and other international basketball developments for SheridanHoops.com. Follow him on Twitter.
Wow, this paragraph is good, my sister is analyzing these things, so I am going to convey her.|