Atlantic Division Fantasy Preview (Part I)
While we follow the NBA closely and have opinions about the best teams in each division, fantasy owners shouldn’t care about the standings.
Starting today, we’ll look at each team’s fantasy strengths and weaknesses: coaching, probable rotation, expected pace and other characteristics. Plus you’ll get our tips on which players to target, or avoid.
This week-long series is a team effort. Jeff Nichols examines the Northwest tomorrow, Bruce Wrigley looks at the Pacific on Wednesday and I’ll visit the Southwest on Thursday. Bruce returns on Friday with the Central, then Jeff wraps it up on Saturday with the Southeast.
Each divisional preview has two parts. They begin with an intro and the two teams we like best. Part II will examine the other three teams.
Hold off on the angry comments, Celtics fans. I am NOT “predicting” your team will finish fourth. Just saying that in my drafts, everything else being equal, I’d give slight extra credit to a Nets or Knicks player because those teams should produce better overall fantasy numbers.
Brooklyn Nets
What a difference a year makes. From a last-place finish in New Jersey to a new name, new arena and some key new players. The Nets were 23rd in the league in offensive efficiency last season and 24th in scoring but those numbers are certain to improve. Not only is the starting five much stronger, the bench is greatly improved. In his offseason analysis, Chris Bernucca calls them “a 50-win team that could make a lot of noise in the postseason.”
I’m expecting them to score 100 points a night and don’t care about the W-L record.
Best to Own
Deron Williams Missed 11 games last year, played hurt in many more and was often a one-man team. With more support at every position, D-Will should become more efficient.
Solid Contributors
Joe Johnson One of the Nets’ new offensive weapons, Johnson may not get quite as many touches as he did in Atlanta but can still score and will be open for some corner threes.
Gerald Wallace Has been traded midseason the last two years; now gets a full camp with talented teammates. “Crash” is a fantasy asset for REB and STL in addition to PTS.
Brook Lopez Not a great rebounder for a 7-foor center, Lopez does block shots and score enough to be a valuable commodity. On the court, he was irreplaceable.
Kris Humphries It’s not enough of a concern to put him on my “avoid” list, but Hump was — by necessity —more of a focal point last year and is now the fifth option. Some decline in his numbers is anticipated.
Players to Avoid
Reggie Evans Tough guy won’t play much and his style is a fantasy negative.
Tyshawn Taylor PG had a strong senior year at Kansas but the Nets’ veteran starters and deep bench will make it tough for rookies to contribute.
Tornike Shengelia Rookie from Georgia (the country, not the state) had a Eurobasket game of 20 PTS, 9 REB, 2 BLK and 2 STL recently, but unless you’re in a crazy-deep keeper league, isn’t worth drafting
Jerry Stackhouse No longer relevant in fantasy, Stack is nearing the end of a long career.
Josh Childress Was a much better player (and a sneaky contributor in several categories) before he played in Greece for two years. Unlikely to improve on his poor numbers with the Suns; does provide extra depth.
Fantasy Sleepers
Mirza Teletovic Without the kind of fanfare that comes with going deep into the NCAA tournament and being a high draft pick, this 27-year-old could be among the league’s best rookies. He gives the Nets a shooter off the bench, capable of backing up at both forward spots.
High Risk/High Reward
Andray Blatche Has size and skill but an attitude that rubbed coaches and teammates the wrong way in Washington. Gets a chance to make a better impression in Brooklyn and could be one of the better backup C if he’s more focused.
C.J. Watson The risk is playing time if D-Will stays healthy, the reward is playing time — and proven productivity — if D-Will gets hurt.
MarShon Brooks Role is limited by the addition of Joe Johnson but if he does fall in your draft, worth considering.
New York Knicks
The highest-scoring team in the division a year ago with 97.8 points per game. They will continue to play at a reasonable pace and substitution patterns are consistent. Remember, we’re not saying they will finish second behind Brooklyn, only that Knicks are almost as good to own as Nets in fantasy leagues, and slightly better to own than players from the other three Atlantic Division teams we discuss in Part II of this article.
Best to Own
Carmelo Anthony You can count on PTS (career average 24.7) with reasonable contributions in other categories. If you read my SF Tiers article, you already know he’s a solid Tier 2 at a position that isn’t deep.
Amar’e Stoudemire Reportedly in great shape and spent a week working with Hakeem Olajuwon on his offensive moves. While everyone has an opinion on his “chemistry” (or lack thereof) with Melo, I’m expecting a bounce-back from last season’s slightly disappointing numbers.
Solid Contributors
Tyson Chandler Has improved his once-lackluster offensive game dramatically over the last two years and is one of the more consistent, reliable fantasy performers.
Raymond Felton Won’t be one of the league’s best PG, but he’ll get the majority of minutes on a talented team and should produce enough to add depth to fantasy rosters.
Fantasy Sleepers
J.R. Smith Benefits early in the season from the injuries to other SG and if he gets off to the anticipated hot start, becomes a “sell high” candidate later on.
Steve Novak Always seems to be around late in a draft, when his 3-point contributions can be just what your roster needs.
Iman Shumpert Expected to miss at least the first month recovering from ACL surgery and as a result, will fall in drafts. If you can afford to stash him, could be an asset in the second half.
Players to Avoid
Kurt Thomas A third-stringer only at this stage; capable of filling in adequately in the event of an injury.
Pablo Prigioni One of the oldest NBA rookies ever, this Argentine national team and Euroleague veteran likely won’t play unless one (or both) other PG get hurt.
High Risk/High Reward
Ronnie Brewer Likely to miss training camp after surgery on a torn meniscus, he’s expected to be ready for the season. If his role is limited to backup SF, minutes will be scarce. If he starts at SG for his defensive abilities, he could be a cheap source of useful fantasy stats, particularly steals.
Marcus Camby At 38, isn’t likely to play much, but he can still stuff the boxscore and is a good handcuff to Chandler in deep leagues.
Jason Kidd The risk is that he won’t see much action behind Raymond Felton. The possible reward comes if Felton disappoints, and the 39-year-old earns at least a timeshare. FG% is horrible but helps in AST, REB, STL and 3PTM when he plays.