Atlantic Division Fantasy Preview (Part II)
For the introduction to this article and our comments on the Nets and Knicks, see Part I.
Philadelphia 76ers
Another case where last year’s numbers mean very little. The team is now built around the very position (center) that was a constant problem.
If you compare Offensive Efficiency (101.7) to Defensive Efficiency(96.3), the Sixers’ differential of 5.1 was fifth-best in the entire NBA. If you had no idea they were that good, you aren’t alone.
Best to Own
Andrew Bynum A “third banana” with the Lakers who gets his first starring role in Philly. Given that nobody on the Sixers will get as many touches as Kobe Bryant did, Bynum should put up career numbers (over 20 PTS and 12 REB per game).
Solid Contributors
Jrue Holiday Still has room to improve. At 22, in his fourth year, he’s another example of how deep the PG position is this year.
Thaddeus Young Thought he’d do more last year and he will, if he ever gets 30+ minutes per game. Doug Collins likes his energy off the bench, so even though he “deserves” to start he may technically be the sixth man.
Spencer Hawes Expected to add PF eligibility, as Collins imagines Hawes playing the “Pau Gasol role” alongside Bynum.
Fantasy Sleepers
Evan Turner Being counted on to step up in his third season and while he’s no Andre Iguodala yet, Turneraveraged 12,7 PTS, 6.7 REB and 3.0 AST as a starter and gained valuable experience in 12 playoff games.
Arnett Moultrie is a fascinating rookie who averaged better than 16 & 1o last year for Mississippi State. His ankle injury comes at a bad time, but he could develop into a role player once healthy.
Players to Avoid
Jason Richardson Might be the starter, but he’s four years older than Nick Young and there’s a disturbing downward trend in his stats. J-Rich shot just 40.8% from the floor and a putrid 59.4% from the line last year
Lavoy Allen Though he was a pleasant surprise last year as an unheralded rookie, minutes are unlikely to increase.
Kwame Brown Was added before the Bynum trade, which knocked him down the depth chart. Now in a battle with Allen for a backup role.
Royal Ivey Technically the backup PG, but may not be in the regular rotation. There’s talk of Evan Turner playing some PG with the second unit.
High Risk/High Reward
Nick Young Could come off the bench firing, the way Louis Williams did the last few years. Might even become a starter.
Dorell Wright On a new team, in a new role, we don’t know exactly what to expect. If Turner does spend time at the point, Wright may get more minutes than most SF backups.
Boston Celtics
Fantasy owners know exactly what they are getting with the Celtics. They play tenacious defense and are methodical with the ball. Doc Rivers allows his starters to play big minutes and keeps his bench short.
Boston isn’t the only defensive team on this list. The whole Atlantic Division tends to play low-scoring games. The Nets’ inability to stop anyone last year was due mostly to a series of untimely injuries.
Best to Own
Kevin Garnett As Jeff pointed out in his great series on strategy, KG has gradually become an afterthought in keeper leagues. That makes him exactly the type of undervalued player who can help you win this year.
Solid Contributors
Rajon Rondo Doesn’t hit free throws or 3-pointers, an unusual profile for a point guard. If you can afford those category hits and make up for them elsewhere, Rondo
Paul Pierce Another who has fallen out of favor in keeper leagues but still maintains value this year.
Brandon Bass Nothing spectacular; shows up every night and does his job. I’ve had a lot of success with PF-C who shoot 80% from the line and have a decent A/T ratio.
Jason Terry Without a lot of depth at PG to begin the season, Terry will play both guard spots. Like many of his teammates, he isn’t a target in dynasty leagues — unless you’re trying to win right now.
Courtney Lee While he won’t be as productive as other starting SG around the league, fits his new role well.
Fantasy Sleepers
Jeff Green Sure to be overlooked in many draft rooms after missing an entire season with a heart problem. The 4-year, $36 million contract suggests the Celtics aren’t concerned about his health, and his versatility allows him to back up at both SF and PF.
Players to Avoid
Darko Milicic Has been added as the probable backup to Garnett. Even if he does see unexpected playing time, poor FT% cancels out BLK and REB.
Fab Melo A big rookie with a great name, but the Milicic signing all but guarantees this will be a year of gaining experience.
Chris Wilcox At least on my radar as a possible backup C until they added Darko. Now he’s irrelevant.
High Risk/High Reward
Jared Sullinger Has the best chance of the Boston rookies to see regular minutes. If Jeff Green isn’t the same player after his long absence, Sully will have an even better opportunity.
Avery Bradley Recovering from injuries to both shoulders, Bradley isn’t expected to play until January but could steal minutes from Courtney Lee.
Toronto Raptors
Chris Sheridan has them 29th in the league in his September Power Rankings and it’s hard to imagine them escaping the cellar in such a tough division. Formerly casual about defense, the Raps became grittier last year and will surprise some opponents with their effort. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, coach Dwayne Casey would prefer to win 80-79 and his input on personnel seems to be growing.
Best to Own
Kyle Lowry A perfect fit for the coach and his system. He might be there when the other Tier 2 PG are off the board.
Solid Contributors
Landry Fields Of course, Toronto overpaid. That contract was a “poison pill” attempt to knock the Knicks out of the Steve Nash sweepstakes. Don’t hold it against Fields, who is responsible defensively and will get plenty of minutes. A safe pick late in standard-sized leagues.
DeMar DeRozan Just turned 23 and will be forced to play better in his fourth season because there’s more depth at his position. If his FG% doesn’t improve, DMDR might spend longer stretches on the bench.
Fantasy Sleepers
Jonas Valanciunas Sheridan, who gave Toronto a D- in his offseason report card, has a good point about foul trouble being his nemesis, but the Lithuanian phenom will put up fantasy-friendly numbers whenever he’s on the floor. News that JV is currently in a walking boot may cause him to drop a bit in drafts.
Terrence Ross Another addition with the fingerprints of coach Casey. There were draft day rumors about the Raptors trading the #8 overall pick for Kyle Lowry. Instead, they used it to select Ross, who might see a lot of second-unit minutes. I like him in deep leagues only this year, with some keeper potential.
Players to Avoid
Jose Calderon One of my favorite players needs a change of scenery. A 48% shooter from the floor for his career, 87.5% from the line, with an A/T ratio over 4.0 — it’s too bad he has trouble defending. A classy guy, the Spaniard won’t complain in public about coming off the bench, but fantasy owners should expect reductions in all his counting stats.
Amir Johnson There are two big men fighting for one role. On our Depth Chart, neither is listed as a starter. It’s hard to pick a “winner” this soon and they could diminish each other’s value.
Ed Davis His third season has a “now or never” feel. The former Tar Heel needs to get bigger and tougher if he ever wants to start in the NBA and also must outplay Johnson. Pass.
Aaron Gray The big man might start once in a while against certain centers but has very little fantasy value beyond 30-team leagues.
Alan Anderson Don’t be fooled by his April; the Raps were limping badly and he’s unlikely to see that much playing time again.
Jamaal Magliore Nothing more than veteran presence, though he’s popular with fans as a Toronto native.
Quincy Acy Rookie isn’t expected to be relevant this year unless there are a few injuries.
High Risk/High Reward
Andrea Bargnani Yes, there’s an injury risk, as that calf muscle was problematic all year. Forget about what he did in March and April during an aborted return. Think about the 23.5 PTS and 6.5 REB he was averaging when healthy.
Linas Kleiza In the 2010-2011 season, after a year recovering from microfracture surgery, he lasted just 39 games before shutting it down. In 2011-2012, he missed a few weeks at the start. Based on his performance at the Olympics, he might finally be 100% healthy.
John Lucas For now, he’s a third-string PG, not worth owning except in the deepest formats. However, he can fill it up and would immediately be useful if (when?) Jose Calderon gets traded.
Our introduction and fantasy analysis of the Nets and Knicks is in Part I.