Fantasy Spin: September 27, 2012 – Part II

Southwest Division Fantasy Preview Part II

For the introduction to this article and our comments on the Mavericks and Grizzlies, see Part I.

Houston Rockets

Who are these guys? After juggling their roster and contracts in a fruitless bid to make room  for Dwight Howard, the Rockets must regroup. They have a completely new look and a wide-open battle for jobs. Fantasy owners who buy low on the right players will be rewarded.

Best to Own

Kevin Martin would like to forget last season. A combination of injuries and disagreements with coach Kevin McHale limited him to just 30 games, and his production was way down. As the only experienced go-to guy on the roster, he should bounce back to his former levels.

Jeremy Lin has never been the #1 PG entering camp. His job security and a mostly unproven Houston frontcourt suggest that Lin will take a lot of shots. While a bit concerned about how he’ll stand up the pounding of a long season, I’m optimistic about him in two leagues where he went from free agent to keeper and considering him elsewhere.

Solid Contributors

Omer Asik A limited offensive game compared to Marcin Gortat, but they are similar in one respect — Gortat was buried in the huge shadow of Dwight Howard until traded. Asik impressed in short stints with the Bulls and now becomes the #1 man in Houston. He should get 10 & 10 with a handful of blocks often enough to tolerate his awful FT%.

Chandler Parsons For an unheralded second-rounder, had a tremendous rookie season. On this team, that makes him a veteran and the incumbent SF. Must improve his 55.1% from the line to be a real fantasy asset.

Sleepers

Patrick Patterson figures to win a starting job. Even when Samuel Dalembert and Luis Scola were around, the third-year man from Kentucky was an important contributor. Post all-star break, he averaged 8.0 PTS and 4.7 REB while playing just 24:00 per game. All those numbers should improve.

Donatas Motiejunas won’t be the most physical center but could play more than many fans expect. If Asik gets in foul trouble or the opponents go small, the young Lithuanian has more speed and better shooting range.

Jeremy Lamb  There’s no way this team will contend, and a Kevin Martin trade makes sense. My strategy is to own both. Kev-Mart will flourish anywhere, and Lamb could take over if and when he moves on.

Terrence Jones After two solid seasons at Kentucky, lands on a team that needs frontcourt help. It’s an ideal opportunity; how well he takes advantage depends on his shooting and learning curve.

Players to Avoid

Gary Forbes Had a few 20-point games in March and April but the Raptors were decimated by injuries so Forbes played more than expected.

High Risk/High Reward

Royce White One of the most exciting rookies on a team with four of them. White’s anxiety issues (including a fear of flying) are the risk. His versatility is the reward. Kevin McHale says White can play anywhere from PG to C but adds,“Who can he guard? That’s the big thing.”

Carlos Delfino There is a chance that he starts at SF and a chance that last year signalled a decline. His experience will help, and he can knock down threes. Even in a limited role, worth considering late.

San Antonio Spurs

In a league with billionaire owners, many of whom love publicity, Peter Holt is exceptional for his community-minded organization. Qualities like honesty with fans and loyalty to players are cornerstones of the Spurs’ philosophy.

General manager R.C. Buford should be an automatic annual finalist for Executive of the Year. Without getting involved in huge media spectacles, he builds a consistent winner for Gregg Popovich. Together, the coach and GM are geniuses at identifying who will fit into their system. There’s no “formula” to the Spurs’ drafts, trades and free agent signings, yet the chemistry is always good.

Despite my admiration for the team, the Spurs are a fantasy nightmare. They were the second-highest scoring team in the league last season, #1 in offensive efficiency. The paradox is, they don’t have a single player you should build your fantasy team around, and predicting who will play is guesswork. “Too much” depth and “too good” a coach leads to inconsistent rotations. Pop customizes his lineup for each opponent, then improvises during games according to the situation. He’s also stingy with advance information.

Best to Own

Tony Parker At 32, he’s the youngest of the “old men” who receive random  rest, often on short notice. Does everything you could want from a PG, except hit threes.

Tim Duncan One of these years will be his last, so he’s available in many keeper leagues. Still a fantasy asset if you’re going for a title this year and are willing to check the lineup faithfully to replace him when he gets inevitable nights off.

Solid Contributors

Manu Ginobili One of my most difficult keeper decisions. His broken hand (the one he dribbles and shoots with) ruined me in one league last year and sure didn’t help in another. He’s 35, but looked good in the playoffs and his final Olympics.

Kawhi Leonard The most likely Spur to play 82 games because of his youth and energy. His backup is Stephen Jackson, another of the “old men” who are carefully nursed through the regular season to be at their best in the playoffs.

Sleepers

Danny Green Typical Spurs, grabbing a rival’s castoff and fitting him perfectly into a role. Because fantasy hoops coincides with the regular season, it doesn’t matter that Green was used less in last year’s playoffs. He’s the nominal starter at SG, a source of 3PTM, BLK and on nights Manu is rested, PTS.

DeJuan Blair Against certain teams with big C (like the Lakers and Grizzlies) he played less than 15:00 per game. Against others he played 25:00 or more and was a double-double threat. As with so many of his teammates, owners need to stay on top of his matchups and guess right about his playing time.

Boris Diaw He was probably miserable in Charlotte, certainly out of shape and inconsistent. After joining the Spurs March 23 and a month of gradual improvement, he started every playoff game. From the C position, very few players help in 3PTM, AST and A/T.

Tiago Splitter Of all the big men, the Brazilian has the best combination of youth and size. His usage is trending in the right direction and his per-minute numbers are by far the best. See the problem? Blair and Diaw are ahead of him in the pecking order and Duncan is a Hall of Famer.

Patrick Mills Much depends on what Pop does when Parker rests; Patty started three games last April and put up 23 PPG. If he does become the regular backup PG with a few spot starts, he’ll make deep-league owners happy.

Players to Avoid

Stephen Jackson Value to his team greatly exceeds his fantasy contributions and Pop has declared Leonard a star. At 34, Jaxx will be used sporadically until the playoffs, when his experience is an asset.

Gary Neal is listed as the backup PG on our Depth Chart but is really more of a SG and a 3-point threat off the bench. One more fantasy “victim” of the Spurs’ amazing depth.

Matt Bonner When he had C eligibility, those 100+ three-pointers came in handy. Now he’s 32, doesn’t play at all some nights and qualifies only at PF. The Red Rocket was very popular in Toronto and I’ll always be a huge fan. Diaw makes him somewhat redundant.

Nando de Colo On most other teams, would be an interesting sleeper rookie. In San Antonio, he’s being groomed as an eventual replacement for countryman Tony Parker, a process that could take years.

Cory Joseph Looks like a third-stringer at best. Another long-term project who might need a change of scenery to thrive.

High Risk/High Reward

Pretty much everyone. Somebody has to score those 103.65 points per game. Unlike the short OKC rotation or those deep, fast-paced Nuggets, the Spurs are a riddle. Who will start, who gets big minutes off the bench and who sits entirely? Those DNPs can be very costly in H2H and low-minute games infuriate Roto owners on a GP limit. If your crystal ball is better than mine, the right Spurs are definitely worth owning.

New Orleans Hornets

I live in the NBA market that is most off-the-radar, Toronto. I suspect that outside of New Orleans, nobody thinks much about the Hornets. Sure, they have the leading candidate for Rookie of the Year and one of the league’s best sharpshooters at SG. But even in fantasy leagues, they are an afterthought.

This presents an opportunity for the shrewd owner. Unfortunately, as much as I’d like to capitalize on their anonymity, there’s only one Hornet I’m targeting, plus a few deep sleepers.

Best to Own

Greivis Vasquez  Became the undisputed starter in March and led his undermanned team to some good results. Counting an impressive stint earlier as an injury fill-in, the Venezuelan had 12 PPG and 7 APG in 26 starts and gets his first full season at the helm.

Anthony Davis Context is everything. In a redraft league, he’s “just” a shot-blocking PF with strong FG%, REB and STL. In a format where you can keep him for three or four years, he’s worth much more. In a dynasty league where you can enjoy his entire career, he’s a monster.

Solid Contributors

Ryan Anderson was a perfect complement to Dwight Howard in Orlando. Frequently wide open, he led the league in threes by a substantial margin. Nobody will be double-teaming the Hornets centers, so Anderson might be covered more closely this year. At his ADP of 42.6, I’ll be looking elsewhere.

Sleepers

Al-Farouq Aminu  Nearly disappeared at times midseason but showed positive signs in April, averaging 30:00, 8.7 PTS and 6.3 REB. Third year could be the charm.

Xavier Henry The backup SG; could see some SF time as well. Knee problems have slowed his development but he claims to be 100% and may be a bargain in deep leagues.

Jason Smith isn’t the most exciting or athletic player. He grinds out REB and PTS, blocks the odd shot and backs up Robin Lopez. Smith might even make it a timeshare.

Darius Miller After four years and a national championship at Kentucky, joins a team that’s in transition and thin up front. The 46th choice in the draft is a “live” longshot in certain formats.

Players to Avoid

Robin Lopez Theoretically, he’s the starter and will be drafted ahead of Smith. Had a 30-12 game and a handful of double-doubles in February 2010, but nothing he’s done since inspires confidence.

Hakim Warrick Listed as the backup PF on our Depth Chart but that’s far from an enthusiastic recommendation. Warrick looks good on occasion but has trouble sustaining his maximum effort.

Roger Mason Not expecting him to play much; doesn’t help your stats anyway.

Austin Rivers Learning the point guard position will take time. Even in keeper leagues, I’m reluctant to overpay.

High Risk/High Reward

Eric Gordon We all know what he can do when healthy. It’s one of the tougher calls for everyone in the draft room: at what point does Gordon, who missed 57 games last season, become a bargain? With a current ADP of 52.7 and other SG to choose from, I’m inclined to let someone else take the risk.

The division overview, Dallas and Memphis are in Part I.

Tomorrow, Bruce Wrigley breaks down the Central and on Saturday, Jeff Nichols looks at the Southeast. We hope this series is useful in your preseason homework. Writing it has helped us get ready for a draft just five days away. I’ll be talking about that unusual league next week.