Best bet on NBA futures market may be the Brooklyn Nets. at 70/1.

With March Madness officially behind us and a little over two weeks left in the NBA regular season, the majority of sports gamblers turn their focus back to the NBA.

Attacking the NBA futures market and NBA playoff odds before the regular season ends can be a very profitable way to walk into the playoffs. In this column, we are going to analyze some of the differences between what the futures market looked like a little over a month ago and what the odds are as of April 1^st.

Some of the biggest differences you will see in the futures are fewer teams listed and a more balanced gap between the teams and odds across the board. The previous “Eight Pillars Of NBA” piece listed futures on 30 different teams, while the futures market now currently only lists odds for 18 teams. Out of the 18 teams that are currently listed in the chart below, 14 of them had their odds go up since February 28^th. Three teams had their odds go down: Miami Heat, Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets; the Indiana Pacers have the exact same odds today as they did a month ago.

The dollar amounts I have listed on the chart give you an idea of how much money you would have lost or gained if you placed a $100 wager on that teams future now versus my last column a little over a month ago:

Pillar 1	Heat	1st Odds are NEWEST
	1/1.2 & 1.5/1
	($67)

Pillar 2	Thunder	Spurs
	4.35/1 & 3.5/1	6.5/1 & 5.5/1
	$85	$10

Pillar 3	Nuggets	Clippers	Pacers
	16/1 & 35/1	17.5/1 & 10/1	18/1 & 18/1
	($190)	$75	$0

Pillar 4	Lakers	Knicks	Bulls	Grizzlies
	23/1 & 25/1	28/1 & 18/1	35/1 & 23/1	40/1 & 27/1
	($20)	$100	$120	$130

Pillar 5	Celtics	Nets
	50/1 & 45/1	70/1 & 33/1
	$50	$370

Pillar 6	Hawks	Warriors	Rockets
	125/1 & 75/1	125/1 & 66/1	150/1 & 125/1
	$500	$590	$250

Pillar 7	Bucks	Mavericks	Jazz
	300/1 & 275/1	400/1 & 300/1	450/1 & 150/1
	$250	$1,000	$3,000

If you simply take a look at the line changes and compare them to playoff position, you can see the “best bets” at the current moment.

When it comes to ensuring a profit in futures NBA bets, matchups become the biggest aspect during the playoffs. If you can avoid playing teams like the Miami Heat for just one extra round, it can mean one more round of lighter odds and possibly an easier opponent in route to the Finals.

The NBA regular season ends on April 17^th, so at the current moment matchups are near impossible to guarantee for the road to the Finals. The two and three seeds in the Eastern Conference are tied, while the 4, 5 and 6 seeds are separated by a game and a half. The most likely matchup at the moment is the Miami Heat against the Milwaukee Bucks as the one versus eight seeds in the first round, that is certainly not a sure thing.

With 2, 3 , 6 and 7 avoiding Miami until the conference finals, it was very difficult for me to leave the Brooklyn Nets off my team of recommended wagers at this price. Originally at 33/1 a month ago and now at 70/1, Brooklyn is currently the number four seed in the east and lined up to play Chicago or Atlanta in the first round of the playoffs. The Nets are just 3-4 straight up and 2-5 against the spread versus the Hawks and Bulls this season.

If Brooklyn can get Joe Johnson healthy over the next two weeks I feel the 70/1 future could definitely be an investment come hopefully the second round of the playoffs against Miami.

When looking at the 8^th playoff spot in the Western Conference here is a breakdown of the Utah Jazz, Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers:

	Odds	Home/Road Left	Playoff Teams Remaining	Proj. Final	Team Rankings Playoff %
Utah Jazz	450/1	4/3	DEN, @GDST, OKC, @MEM	39-36/4-3	50.90%

Los Angeles Lakers	23/1	6/2	DAL, MEM, @LAC, GDST, SA, HOU	38-36/5-3	43.50%

Dallas Mavericks	400/1	4/5	@LAK, @DEN, DEN, MEM	36-37/5-4	7.10%

The issue with finding value in any of these three teams fighting for the eight seed is the fact they are 38-81 (.319) against teams .500 and better this season. In my honest opinion, I think the Spurs can be beat. A recent injury to Manu Ginobili, who is out the remainder of the regular season, has put San Antonio in a position where they are only one game up on Oklahoma City for the number one seed in the west.

As much as I want to recommend a small wager on the Mavericks at 400/1 to put a large scare in the Spurs, I am not sure Dallas will be that last team in the playoffs this year. The Jazz are 3 games ahead of the Mavericks in the win column right now with only around eight games left for each team. At 450/1, the Utah Jazz simply represents more value at the current moment than the Lakers and Mavericks. Are the Lakers better equipped to win four games in around a week against the Thunder or Spurs…possibly; but at 23/1 and an upward battle from the ninth spot in the west, it might not be worth the “gamble.”

In the Lakers eight games remaining on their schedule they face six “playoff” teams, with five of them being at the Staples Center.

This may be a good thing for Los Angeles, as they are 5-1 in their last six home games versus “playoff” teams coming in.

Here are a few influential statistics that I believe will come into play come playoff time:

1. Who are the top 6 teams in the NBA (winning percentage) in close-margined road games this season?

Nets	.778
Warriors	.700
Heat	.636
Spurs	.636
Bucks	.636
Knicks	.636

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2. These 5 teams are the best at defending the “runway” (the rim to 9 feet away from the basket; opponent field goal percentage) in the NBA.

Pacers	51.20%
Thunder	54.70%
Spurs	54.80%
Nuggets	54.90%
Bucks	55.20%

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3. Which “playoff” teams are the worst against the spread across the NBA?

Lakers	30-43-1
Bucks	33-40
Bulls	33-39
Celtics	33-38-3
Hawks	35-38-2
Nets	35-36-3

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4. An NBA efficiency formula I put together, which calculates defensive statistics and simple offensive efficiency (((Assists Per Game) – (Turnovers Per Game)) + DEF (Steals, Blocks & Charges Drawn)).