If you enjoy the weekly StatBox column that analytically breaks down some of the NBA’s most pressing and important topic, you’re in luck. Every Tuesday through Thursday during the postseason, the StatBox is expanding into playoff game analysis. You’ll not only find out why each team won and lost, but how different statistical trends can play out over the course of the series and the playoffs as a whole. Today: Milwaukee’s future, Boston’s age and Golden State’s shooting touch.
Is This Milwaukee’s Best?
The uncertainty of the Milwaukee Bucks’ future as currently constituted has been well documented. Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis, along with J.J. Redick, could leave at the end of the season, leaving the franchise in flux. Perhaps Jennings and Ellis leaving wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. The two shot a combined 5-for-22 in a 98-86 loss to Miami that gave the Heat a 2-0 series lead.
Jennings isn’t even close to a high-percentage shooter and his PER, win shares per 48 minutes and overall offensive and defensive ratings have either stayed the same or gotten worse from last season. Here’s a look at his basic splits from this season:
| Jennings | FG % | 3FG % | Points | Assists |
| Pre All-Star Break | 39.5 | 36.4 | 18.5 | 6.1 |
| Post All-Star Break | 40.7 | 39.5 | 15.6 | 7.3 |
| Playoffs | 31.4 | 23.5 | 17 | 3.5 |
Jennings shot just under 40 percent during the regular season and probably won’t get close to that percentage against Miami. Is he worth a huge contract? Is Ellis worth a huge contract? He’s improved over the course of the season, but his field goal percentage during the regular season was at its lowest level since his rookie season and his PER is at its lowest level in five years.
| Ellis | FG % | 3FG % | Points | Assists |
| Pre All-Star Break | 40.1 | 23.2 | 18.4 | 5.5 |
| Post All-Star Break | 44 | 35.1 | 20.6 | 7 |
| Playoffs | 46.2 | 11.1 | 14.5 | 4 |
His numbers after the All-Star break are encouraging, but can Bucks GM John Hammond really trust his backcourt for the long haul to build around Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova? Can this team be better than a low level Eastern Conference playoff team unless major changes are made? The answer to these questions will define this franchise’s direction for the next half decade.
Celtics Stars Show Their Age
It’s clearly obvious how much the Boston Celtics miss Rajon Rondo, so that will be the last time his name is discussed this postseason. But Paul Pierce was named as the key player for Boston in this series against the Knicks, and he hasn’t been nearly the offensive catalyst or fulcrum that the team has needed in order to stay competitive in this series.
Pierce’s numbers improved since Rondo Boston’s point guard went down at the end of January, but the transcendant postseason version of Pierce seems to have disappeared with the passing of time. So has Kevin Garnett provided the team with any spark against the hated New York Knicks? After averaging nearly 15 points per game on 49.6 percent shooting during the regular season, KG was limited to 20 total points on 8-21 shooting at Madison Square Garden.
Jeff Green and Avery Bradley can’t carry a team, and neither can Pierce or Garnett at this point. Perhaps we should have seen this coming, because Garnett’s decline (he only played 16 regular season games after the All-Star break) was fairly evident.
| Garnett | Games | Minutes | FG % | Points | Rebounds |
| February | 11 | 30.2 | 48.7 | 15.7 | 9.5 |
| March | 9 | 28.3 | 44 | 13.7 | 8.3 |
| April | 3 | 23.4 | 64.3 | 12.3 | 7.7 |
| Playoffs | 2 | 30.5 | 38.1 | 10 | 10 |
Boston’s age and flaws seemed to have been exposed during the Knicks’ 32-11 third quarter run, and it seems like Father Time has caught up to Pierce and Garnett.
Warriors Pitch Perfect Game In Denver
The most points Golden State scored in a game during the regular season was 127 against Sacramento. They lost that game. To go into Denver and score 131 points while shooting 64.6 from the floor and 14-for-25 from three is nothing short of incredible. It’s almost like a pitcher in baseball throwing a perfect game. It’s going to be hard for any team to top the offensive performance the Warriors pulled off in the postseason, on the road, where the home team was 39-3 going into Tuesday’s game at the Pepsi Center. Denver hadn’t lost at home since Jan. 18.
Consider these statistical nuggets per Elias and the AP:
- No team shot this well from the field in a playoff game since Utah did it on April 25, 1991.
- No team has scored 131 points in a playoff game since Boston did it to the Lakers in that famous Game 6 close-out game in the 2008 Finals.
- Denver had not allowed a team to shoot better than 54 percent from the field in a game this season. Golden State shot over 64 percent. On the road. In the playoffs. Without the injured David Lee.
Is this kind of play sustainable? Of course not. Will Denver win this series? Almost certainly. Did Golden State have one of the best offensive playoff performances in recent memory? You bet, and it’s definitely something to marvel at.
Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle and a writer for Football.com. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.