A happy Fourth of July to you from everyone here at Sheridan Hoops, where analysis doesn’t take a day off (though analysis will be chilling out with some burgers and beers later). Let’s quickly get to the latest breaking news and information with, as usual, a statistical bent.
Smith back with Knicks, Prigioni too
The Knicks ultimately got its secondary scorer back. J.R. Smith is returning on a four-year contract worth $24.7 million, as first reported by Frank Isola, the highest monetary amount the Knicks could give him. Based on other contracts given out to similar players like O.J. Mayo and Kyle Korver (we’ll get to them later), Smith probably could have gotten bigger money offers elsewhere, but his loyalty to the team is clearly evident in this contract.
Smith is a player of extremes, either providing elation or sheer frustration, but there’s no question that Smith had his best season in 2012-2013. The 6th Man of the Year played a career high 33.5 minutes per game and had career best point (18.1), rebound (5.3) and Win Share (6.7) totals to go with his best PER (17.6) since the 2007-2008 season.
Smith’s playoff performance was disappointing, but he actually hadn’t shot better than 40 percent from the field in a postseason since 2008-2009. Maybe those struggles should have been expected.
Prigioni gets a three-year deal worth about $6 million, which is certainly a bargain for the elderly Argentine’s production. He only averaged about 16 minutes per game off the bench, but shot 45.5 percent from the field and 39.6 percent from three, to give him a very strong 116 Offensive Rating and a very healthy .123 Win Shares per 48 minutes (.100 is the league average). As long as Prigioni stays healthy, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be a nice asset for the team.
Kings say farewell to Evans. Smart idea.
Tyreke Evans signed a four-year offer sheet with the New Orleans Pelicans for a reported $44 million, and Sacramento will not match that. Good decision.
Sacramento is now working on a sign-and-trade of Evans so that the team can recoup some value. Sam Amick reports that a three-team trade could be in the works that would include PG Greivis Vasquez going to the Kings and C Robin Lopez heading from New Orleans to Portland. The Blazers would actually absorb Lopez’s salary and give up nothing, Jason Quick reports, which absurdly great for Neil Olshey and Portland.
Evans was really, really good last season, shooting 47.8 percent from the field and 33.8 percent from three (the first time he shot over 30 percent from downtown), but isn’t worth Stephen Curry money, especially for New Orleans. The Pelicans already traded Nerlens Noel and a likely lottery pick in the heralded and hyped 2014 draft for a point guard in Jrue Holliday. They also have, for the time being, a high salary shooting guard in Eric Gordon.
So after a season where Evans was shifted between three different positions, Evans would come off the bench assuming that Holliday and Gordon is the starting backcourt. Considering Evans has come off the bench in a total of 10 games over his four years in Sacramento, it will definitely take an adjustment.
Sacramento would then be able to plug in the pass-first Vasquez at point guard. He would be a much better fit than Evans, at a fraction of the price, in a pair with first-round pick Ben McLemore. The Kings would then allocate the salary they’d save on overpaying Evans on other players that could improve a team. See, Kings fans, what happens when you have someone competent running your basketball operations?
Hawks, Bucks overpay for shooting guards
The Hawks kind of see the writing on the wall here. They won’t be getting Dwight Howard and probably won’t be keeping Josh Smith. So why not pay Kyle Korver $24 million over four years?
Listen, Korver is really good at what he does. He averaged 10.9 points per game last season in just over 30 minutes, and shot a superb 45.7 percent from three. But his PER was just 13.9 last season, J.R. Smith just got similar money with a much better PER, and he wouldn’t be a starter on a true contending team. It’s just a lot of money, that’s all.
Expect Milwaukee to sign Mayo to similar financial terms. Mayo, coincidentally, had an identical PER to Korver last season. Not coincidentally, Atlanta and Milwaukee won’t be very good next season with overpaid shooting guards.
San Antonio speculation: Nil for Neal?
Kudos to the Spurs for locking up Manu Ginobili on a two-year deal worth $14 million. I’m sure other teams would have paid him a lot more had he gone on the open market. But Wednesday night, Chris Sheridan (you know, the Sheridan Hoops guy?) mentioned to me that the Spurs don’t want to go over the luxury tax. Gary Neal is a restricted free agent. It’s now possible that a team could offer Neal a poison-pill type of contract to lure Neal away from the team, and there would be little to nothing San Antonio could do about it. It’s thought. Speculation. Think about it.
Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.