The Washington Wizards are the NBA’s Rorschach Test team.
Coldly visualize last season’s 29-53 record. In the context of a fifth straight year without a postseason appearance, we’re talking demolition time. Yet others – most notably, the team’s ownership – warmed to the clear improvement over the second half of last season after ingloriously bottoming out early on.
Washington kept its primary core of players and inked some – including point guard John Wall – to lucrative deals. Coach Randy Wittman and president Ernie Grunfeld also are back, though both enter the final year of their respective contracts.
The franchise’s negatives are obvious even if they center more on the demoralizing past. Not just five straight seasons without a playoff berth, but just five postseason appearances total over the last quarter century. There have been optimistic times in that span, but injuries, knuckleheads, short-sighted decisions and just plain bad luck have derailed previous plans.
Yet there are reasons why what’s happening now should not be lumped in with the past. It starts with Wall, who missed the opening 33 games last season with a knee injury. Returning with the team sporting a brutal 5-28 mark, his playmaking helped spark the Wizards to go 24-19 over the next 43 games. It also landed the point guard an $80 million contract extension.
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Once poised teenager Bradley Beal found his NBA footing, the wing guard’s knockdown shooting reputation proved legitimate. Despite the brutal start, Wittman implored his players enough on the defensive end for the team to finish as a top-10 unit.
Along with Wall, the Wizards handed a fat contract to perimeter threat Martell Webster and re-signed depth guard Garrett Temple, ensuring the bulk of last season’s team would return. Veteran big men Nene and Emeka Okafor offer experience among a sea of kids, including rookies Otto Porter and Glen Rice. Free agents Eric Maynor and Al Harrington fortify a lacking bench.
Factor in the purposeful step back by certain teams in the Eastern Conference and it is reasonable to imagine the Wizards stepping into one of the remaining playoff spots — no matter what history suggests.
With a postseason push in mind, here are five things to watch with the Wizards this season.
1. Will John Wall perform like a franchise player now that he’s paid like one? From a historical context, the 2010 top overall pick already has. Wall sports averages of 16.9 points, 8.0 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 1.5 steals over his first three seasons. In league history, only Oscar Robertson, Magic Johnson and Chris Paul have averaged or are currently averaging comparable numbers.
Of course, numbers only get you so far – and to this point for Wall, not to the playoffs. One change is that last season, Wall started finding a balance between using his Autobahn-like speed while actually playing the role of facilitator. Washington averaged considerably more points and shot a higher percentage from inside and outside the arc with its floor leader on the court. Having stable teammates also helped Wall, as did finding a bit more consistency with his usual faulty jumper.
The Wizards paid Wall not for his to-date production, but his potential. Now it’s time for the 23-year-old to fine-tune his game so the Wizards are no longer singing a sad, sad song.
2. Can the Wizards survive another lengthy Nene injury absence? When Nene plays, he provides a low-post scoring threat with a knack for getting to the line. He is savvy enough as a passer to run offense through him. He is a physical interior presence on both ends of the court. And he is a leader in the locker room.
But Nene, who turns 31 in September, has been anything but a picture of good health recently. Since arriving in Washington midway through the 2011-12 season, the Brazilian big man has missed 33 of 105 games. Foot injuries sidelined him for 21 games last season. Without him, the Wizards become truly perimeter-based on offense.
That’s not likely to change this upcoming campaign unless reserve center Kevin Seraphin asserts inside with any regularity. Although reportedly healthy, receiving 65-plus games out of Nene – a number he has reached just five times in 11 seasons – would be a boon. Nene missing 25 or more games could be a bust.
3. How will the minutes work at small forward? Webster’s perimeter shooting prowess, career-high stats and effervescent locker room aura led to his five-year contract. By the on-court and financial numbers, it appears he is the starting small forward. Of course, Trevor Ariza stated at the end of last season that he views himself as a starter even though he came off the bench in 41 of his 56 games last season.