With the NBA season win total over/unders coming out earlier this week at the Las Vegas Hilton (LVH) in Las Vegas, here is a chart of those odds, the team wins from last year and the percentage changes between the two:
| TEAM | 13-’14 Win Total O/U | 12-’13 Wins | % Off | Total Wins Off |
| Miami Heat | 60 | 66 | -7.32% | -6 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 57 | 56 | 1.22% | 1 |
| Chicago Bulls | 56.5 | 45 | 14.02% | 11.5 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 55.5 | 58 | -3.05% | -2.5 |
| Houston Rockets | 54.5 | 45 | 11.59% | 9.5 |
| Indiana Pacers | 53.5 | 49 | 5.49% | 4.5 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 52.5 | 49 | 4.27% | 3.5 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 50.5 | 60 | -11.59% | -9.5 |
| Golden State Warriors | 49.5 | 47 | 3.05% | 2.5 |
| New York Knicks | 49.5 | 54 | -5.49% | -4.5 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 49 | 56 | -8.54% | -7 |
| Denver Nuggets | 47 | 57 | -12.20% | -10 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 44 | 41 | 3.66% | 3 |
| Washington Wizards | 42 | 29 | 15.85% | 13 |
| Detroit Pistons | 41 | 29 | 14.63% | 12 |
| Minnesota Twolves | 41 | 31 | 12.20% | 10 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 40.5 | 24 | 20.12% | 16.5 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 40 | 44 | -4.88% | -4 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 40 | 27 | 15.85% | 13 |
| Portland Blazers | 38.5 | 33 | 6.71% | 5.5 |
| Toonto Raptors | 36.5 | 34 | 3.05% | 2.5 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 33.5 | 45 | -14.02% | -11.5 |
| Sacramento Kings | 31.5 | 28 | 4.27% | 3.5 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 28.5 | 38 | -11.59% | -9.5 |
| Boston Celtics | 27.5 | 41 | -16.46% | -13.5 |
| Charlotte Bobcats | 27.5 | 21 | 7.93% | 6.5 |
| Utah Jazz | 27.5 | 43 | -18.90% | -15.5 |
| Orlando Magic | 24.5 | 20 | 5.49% | 4.5 |
| Phoenix Suns | 21.5 | 25 | -4.27% | -3.5 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 16.5 | 34 | -21.34% | -17.5 |
A few notes on the odds above. For an additional look at NBA odds visit TopBet.eu online sportsbook.
1. Right off the bat, one of the teams odds I immediately notice is the Boston Celtics at 27.5. The last time Boston won less than 27 games was in 2006-2007 when they won 24 behind just 47 games from Paul Pierce.
2. The biggest positive and negative percentage changes on this list are: Cleveland Cavaliers (+20.12%) and Philadelphia 76ers (-21.34%).
3. How many different number of teams had a -10% or +10% change in their odds: The exact same number…Seven had both more than +10% and -10% change.
4. Only the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets had a -10% change and are still in the top half of the NBA in terms of win totals from last year.
5. Only the Minnesota Timberwolves, Cleveland Cavaliers and New Orleans Pelicans had a +10% change and are still in the bottom half of the NBA in terms of win totals.
6. Seven teams in 2012-2013 finished with over 50 wins, this list projects eight teams to finish with over 50 wins, with the new teams to the group including the Brooklyn Nets, Indiana Pacers, Houston Rockets and Chicago Bulls.
7. Last year, eight teams finished below the benchmark of 30 wins, for 2013-2014, seven teams are projected to finish below 30 wins, with the new teams to the group including the Philadelphia 76ers, Utah Jazz, Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks
8. In the past 5 regular seasons, there have been eight total instances of a team winning 60 or more games, on this list only the Miami Heat are projected at 60, with the next closest team being the Los Angeles Clippers at 57.
9. Regarding Philly’s 16 1/2: In the past 5 regular seasons, how many times has a team won fewer than 20 games? Eight. Three times has a team won fewer than 17 games:
10. Statistic to note: In games decided by 3 points or less last year (2012-2013), let’s look at a few of the teams:
Los Angeles Clippers, who finished with 56 wins, were 3-5 in those games
Oklahoma City Thunder, who finished with 60 wins, were 3-6 in those games
Indiana Pacers, who finished with 49 wins, were 4-9 in those games
On the other hand, in games decided by 3 points or less last year, teams at the bottom of the standings like the:
Sacramento Kings, who finished with just 28 wins, were 7-3 in those games
New Orleans Pelicans, who finished with just 27 wins, were 7-5 in those games
Charlotte Bobcats, who finished with just 21 wins, were 6-6 in those games
Evan Abrams writes about basketball gambling for SheridanHoops.com. Follow him on Twitter @Betropolitan..
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What I really want to see is what Vegas predicted would be the win total before last season and what the actual results were. Then we would see how much CRAP all this is. Would be nice to also see the predictions and results of the sports media to see how full of CRAP they are too.
Lets just play the games. I think the more knowledgeable fans do just as well as Vegas or the average analyst. And noone can predict injuries.
My prediction is 60 wins for Nets, 58 for Pacers, 57 for Heat, 55 for Bulls, 46 for Pistons, 45 for Knicks in the East. In the West, I have Spurs with 57 wins, followed by Clippers, then Houston then Grizz then OKC as best in West.