This is the time of year where everyone and their mothers offer up a series of fearless prognostications about the upcoming NBA season.
Here’s what I can tell you about my skills at predicting the future. If I was really any good at it, I wouldn’t be wasting it on the NBA season. And neither would anyone else.
I am not reading tea leaves, interpreting tarot cards, gazing into crystal balls, holding seances, poring over analytics or buying classified information on the black market. I am doing what virtually all of my colleagues do – making a somewhat educated guess.
While detractors may argue that even blind squirrels stumble upon the occasional acorn, I would like to point out that I didn’t do so badly last season. Make of it what you will.
Our staff here at Sheridan Hoops will be making its award and champion predictions later this month. For now, here are my 10 fearless predictions for the 2013-14 NBA season. ICYMI, Sheridan’s ran yesterday.
1. Before Christmas, Dwight Howard will grumble that the Houston Rockets are James Harden’s team. Early in the season, Howard will cost the Rockets a win with one of his customary 3-of-12 performances from the line. Coach Kevin McHale will go back to what worked in close games last season – Harden creating off the dribble. The Rockets will be winning with Harden converting and-ones or Chandler Parsons and Jeremy Lin knocking down open threes. Howard and his lousy free-throw shooting won’t be part of the endgame, and he will say something stupid like, “I thought I was going to be a bigger part of the offense here. This is just like playing with Kobe.”
2. The Oklahoma City Thunder won’t win 50 games. They might still win the Northwest Division, which could have four lottery teams. But with Russell Westbrook on the shelf until roughly the quarter pole, last season’s 60 wins is out of the question. Reggie Jackson is going to find out that playing point guard is a little tougher when you have to do it for 38 minutes instead of eight. And could someone please explain to me why I should just assume Jeremy Lamb and his 147 career minutes will morph into a nightly contributor? Even though the Thunder somehow have just one back-to-back in the first five weeks – by contrast, the Spurs have five – Kevin Durant is going to need a chiropractor for the back problems he develops carrying the offense by himself every game.
3. The Philadelphia 76ers will have the NBA’s worst record but won’t win the lottery. It’s hard to imagine what the Wells Fargo Center will look like this season, because the Sixers couldn’t fill it when they were winning, which they won’t do much of this season. They will be lucky to win 18 games. (The over/under is 16 1/2). But they won’t win the lottery, either. In the last 20 years, the team with the worst record has won the lottery just twice (Cleveland in 2003, Orlando in 2004). The worst team has come up second in the last three lotteries. More important to the Sixers is 
where the New Orleans Hornets Pelicans finish, because they are nowhere near a playoff team (they owe their pick to Philly) but their selection has 1-5 protection. So Andrew Wiggins could end up in Phoenix or Utah, and Philadelphia will have to settle for a tandem from among Julius Randle, Dante Exum, Jabari Parker and Andrew Harrison.
4. Kawhi Leonard will make the All-Star team. We all saw Leonard’s coming-out party in the NBA Finals, when he picked up the slack for an aging Manu Ginobili by averaging 14.6 points and 11.1 rebounds while hounding LeBron James as well as anybody. Here’s what Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said at training camp: “He’s been phenomenal, he’s improved more quickly than any player we’ve ever had because his mindset is such that he wants to be great. And he has all the reasons to be.” One roadblock to Leonard’s first All-Star berth could be Dirk Nowitzki returning to form.
5. Utah Jazz guard Trey Burke will be Rookie of the Year. The media doesn’t care how the rookie’s team did, just how the rookie did. The last ROY from a winning team was Amar’e Stoudemire with Phoenix in 2003.