As it often does, the NCAA Tournament provided a wild first weekend.
Mercer saved Warren Buffett $1 billion, Dayton won the state of Ohio and reached the Sweet 16 for the first time in 30 years, Stanford sent Andrew Wiggins and Kansas packing, and the young Kentucky Wildcats ended Wichita State’s dream season.
So out of the 32 second and third-round games won by the 16 teams still in contention for the national championship, what statistical trends and insights can we gain from looking back at what the successful teams did to reach this point?
Sheridan Hoops took 14 statistical categories, divided into two parts, and averaged them out to see not just how the teams won, but which teams will be at an advantage going forward. First, the offensive numbers:
| Team | Scored | Allowed | FG % | 3 FG % | Top Scorer | Assists | Turnovers |
| Florida 1 | 67 | 55 | 51 | 25 | 16 | 11 | 10 |
| Florida 2 | 61 | 45 | 43.1 | 25 | 21 | 9 | 6 |
| UCLA 1 | 76 | 59 | 46 | 31.3 | 21 | 17 | 10 |
| UCLA 2 | 77 | 60 | 54.7 | 28.6 | 19 | 21 | 4 |
| Dayton 1 | 60 | 59 | 44.9 | 23.1 | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| Dayton 2 | 55 | 53 | 41.3 | 43.8 | 14 | 12 | 14 |
| Stanford 1 | 58 | 53 | 38.8 | 53.3 | 23 | 10 | 10 |
| Stanford 2 | 60 | 57 | 44.7 | 0 | 16 | 6 | 16 |
| Virginia 1 | 70 | 59 | 52.5 | 47.1 | 17 | 16 | 7 |
| Virginia 2 | 78 | 60 | 55.6 | 45.5 | 16 | 13 | 10 |
| Michigan St 1 | 93 | 78 | 53.6 | 52.6 | 41 | 16 | 14 |
| Michigan St 2 | 80 | 73 | 49.1 | 33.3 | 26 | 17 | 11 |
| Iowa State 1 | 93 | 75 | 63.6 | 52.9 | 24 | 21 | 9 |
| Iowa State 2 | 85 | 83 | 43.9 | 46.2 | 24 | 16 | 14 |
| UConn 1 | 89 | 81 | 45.5 | 45.8 | 24 | 13 | 9 |
| UConn 2 | 77 | 65 | 44.2 | 45 | 25 | 10 | 11 |
| Arizona 1 | 68 | 59 | 55.3 | 50 | 18 | 15 | 12 |
| Arizona 2 | 84 | 61 | 49.2 | 38.9 | 18 | 24 | 6 |
| San Diego St 1 | 73 | 69 | 39 | 35.3 | 23 | 9 | 11 |
| San Diego St 2 | 63 | 44 | 43.2 | 43.8 | 30 | 8 | 6 |
| Baylor 1 | 74 | 60 | 40.5 | 15.4 | 16 | 9 | 12 |
| Baylor 2 | 85 | 55 | 63.8 | 61.1 | 17 | 19 | 8 |
| Wisconsin 1 | 75 | 35 | 50 | 43.5 | 18 | 13 | 7 |
| Wisconsin 2 | 85 | 77 | 48.3 | 39.3 | 19 | 15 | 8 |
| Kentucky 1 | 56 | 49 | 38 | 26.7 | 19 | 8 | 15 |
| Kentucky 2 | 78 | 76 | 54 | 44.4 | 20 | 11 | 11 |
| Louisville 1 | 71 | 64 | 36.4 | 30.8 | 18 | 10 | 12 |
| Louisville 2 | 66 | 51 | 44.9 | 35.3 | 21 | 14 | 19 |
| Tennessee 1 | 86 | 67 | 53.6 | 14.3 | 26 | 16 | 12 |
| Tennessee 2 | 83 | 63 | 49.1 | 27.3 | 26 | 15 | 7 |
| Michigan 1 | 57 | 40 | 47.8 | 41.2 | 15 | 15 | 11 |
| Michigan 2 | 79 | 65 | 44.4 | 50 | 17 | 16 | 4 |
| Averages | 73.8125 | 60.9375 | 47.8125 | 37.36875 | 20.625 | 13.65625 | 10.28125 |
The average Sweet 16 team won 73.8 to 60.9, a margin more than two points closer than last year’s, indicating the overall parity and balance of this year’s 68-team field. But incredibly, the 73.8 scoring average needed to advance is nearly identical to last year’s total, which is remarkable.
Iowa State, Michigan State and Tennessee are the only teams to crack 80 points in both games, and the first two of those teams could meet in the East Regional Final at Madison Square Garden. Dayton and Stanford failed to score above 60 in both their wins, which should mean a low-scoring affair in their matchup Thursday in Memphis.
Shutdown defense was also an important part of the first two rounds, with 12 of the 16 contenders having held at least one opponent under 60 points. Only Michigan State, Iowa State, UConn and Tennessee failed to hold a foe below 60.
The average field goal percentage for a winner was just under 48 percent, with Virginia, Michigan State, Arizona, Wisconsin and Tennessee shooting better than that average in both their wins. If those teams remain consistent in their shooting, that should give them an advantage over their opponents. Dayton, Stanford, San Diego State and Louisville were the only teams to shoot under 45 percent in both their games; they will have to pick up if they want to keep dancing.
From beyond the arc, the 37.3 percent average is down more than two percentage points from last year, perhaps because more treys are being attempted. Regardless, only Virginia, Iowa State, UConn and Michigan shot over 40 percent from deep in both their games. The Wolverines are regarded as the best jump-shooting team in the country, which should bode well for them against Tennessee.
Stanford is an odd case, having hit half its threes in the second round and none in its win over Kansas, while Baylor essentially did the reverse in its games. Florida and UCLA both had tough times hitting threes and will play one another in the Sweet 16. Louisville and Tennessee also were bad from three, and the Vols will likely have to dominate inside to defeat Michigan.
The top scorers in wins by the remaining teams averaged 20.6 points, down a full point from last year. Assists per game remained about the same, but teams this year turned the ball over just 10.28 times per game so far, down from 12.5 for last year’s sweet 16. There seems to be a much greater emphasis on taking care of the ball, which will likely prove crucial in the upcoming games.
UCLA, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida turned it over the fewest times so far, with the Bruins committing just four such miscues in their third-round win over Stephen F. Austin. Those four teams are the ones that won’t beat themselves, while Louisville, Dayton, Kentucky and Stanford turned it over the most. Interestingly enough, those teams are playing each other this week in what should be a great slate of games Thursday and Friday.