NBA Draft: Who is the Next Damian Lillard?

The best prospects stayed away from the NBA Draft combine in Chicago. The next tier of prospects are jockeying for leverage and position while their agents push them to anyone willing to listen, and there are some seniors who go against the grain of one-and-done prospects who deserve a closer look.

This has been a strange year in the sense that so many big names pulled out of Chicago’s NBA Draft Combine earlier this week, including Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid and Jabari Parker. Ryan Blake, the NBA’s Director of Scouting, believes players not attending hurts them off the court as much as it has on it.

“It all became about posturing. I don’t necessarily understand that. It is a good opportunity to get these guys in front of GMs and in the bright lights and with the other members of the draft class,” Blake said. “Build up some development, even if they’re not going to play, but get them comfortable with the GMs and working with the media.”

It’s a valid point and it adds to the complexity of the process, which is equal parts sabermetrics and crapshoot to begin with. The NBA Combine aside, this is where scouts and evaluators make earn their money — and many have turned their focus to upperclassmen and four-year players in the search for the next Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green or Damian Lillard.

When it comes time to pull the trigger, the question becomes: Is it safer to pick the younger player with upside, or the more mature player further along in development.

When Portland drafted Lillard, then a relatively unknown talent out of Weber State, the pick fell under the radar of most NBA fans as 11 of the first 13 picks were freshmen and sophomores — a trend that is now the norm. I believed Lillard was the most NBA-ready player with his ability to score and make plays for teammates, but it was what people were saying about his leadership and character that impressed me even more.

That can be built over a long college career. You could tell that he was physically ready to quarterback a team, but his quiet confidence and leadership skills were worth the gamble in the same manner that they were with Dwyane Wade in 2003. Lillard’s selection took Portland from a good, young team with some upside to a top Western Conference team … a 28-win team to a 54-win team in just two years.

This draft has a ton of talent and depth, as most drafts do, but the word around the league is that this class isn’t as strong as once advertised, meaning it may make sense to draft experience and develop it faster.  There are a lot of question marks, but in my opinion these “older” guys who are potential hidden gems that will provide some serious value in the near future to teams smart enough to draft them.

Kendall Williams 6’4, PG/SG, New Mexico
Having committed to UCLA as a 10th grader, his scholarship offer was pulled after an ill-fated campus visit.

Williams instead headed to Albuquerque in 2010 and had a very solid 4-year career under head coach Steve Alford. He was the 2013 Mountain West Player of the Year and is the conference’s all-time leader in assists.

It’s easy to like his unselfishness and his ability to move the ball quickly while playing quickly. Alford has identified Williams as one of the fastest players he’s every coached, and speed is a skill that can’t be taught. That skill combined with length (6.5 ½ wingspan) can be a terrific combination at the guard position for any NBA team.

Jamil Wilson, 6’7, Forward Marquette
Buzz Williams knows how to produce toughness with NBA skills, and Wilson is no exception. An impressive combination of size, strength, speed and skill, Wilson is a player who can step into an NBA rotation immediately.

At 6’7, 230 Wilson is a bit of a tweener but I think he’s a perfect “three and D” player that’s become fashionable over the past few years in the NBA. Word is he had a great showing in front of the scouts and executives at Portsmouth, where another Golden Eagle, Jimmy Butler, shined a few years back.

He’s a Tony Allen type physically, and like Allen, he’s a guy who doesn’t need to score, or even need the ball to be effective. He’ll need to shoot well from distance in his workouts to improve his stock, but wherever he lands that team will be getting an NBA-ready body with surprising athleticism ready to compete.

Bryce Cotton, 6’1, PG, Providence
Cotton is a player who, to me, possesses a quality that is so hard to find in players with NBA caliber talent: A vicious killer instinct. Cotton isn’t afraid to take, and make, big shots and the ball has a funny way of always finding him. He anticipates plays well on both sides of the floor, and that vision helps him despite lacking a ton of strength.

He’s slight at just 165 pound,s but that didn’t stop him from dominating at times in one of the roughest conferences in the nation. His knack for hitting tough shots off the glass makes him eerily similar to Allen Iverson, and he’s a player who if put in the right situation can quarterback a second unit and provide great value in a later pick.

He’s also a smart NBA D-League stash who can be called up to contribute midseason if necessary.

Patric Young, 6’10, F/C, Florida
Young’s strength and power have impressed me for years, but I really started paying attention this January. He’s a beast, and I believe despite not having the most impressive numbers, he became an all-around better player and person by staying at Florida for four years.

Admittedly immature, Young learned the skill of self-discipline under coach Billy Donovan and the result is an NBA-ready professional. I see so much Ben Wallace in Young, who also knows how to find spots on the floor like the short corner, which led to many easy dunks and layups this season.

Understanding the short corner is a skill very few young bigs possess at the NBA level, and it’s an easy way to make friends with slashing and diving guards. If I’m an NBA executive with an early 2nd round pick or some cash to play around with, I’m targeting Young.

Orlando Sanchez, 6’9, F, St. John’s
St. John’s fans may not agree with this, but Sanchez was completely misused this season. He’s not a four-year college player and his journey as a player has been a bit of an adventure, but Sanchez is a rare combination of size and skill.

Word is he’s already shed 10 pounds and regained the bounce that had him a major recruit coming out of junior college, and that is getting a lot of attention from some executives around the NBA.

Sanchez never fit in Coach Steve Lavin’s system and his production suffered for it. His bad habits are cause for concern, especially defensively, but he possesses several NBA-ready skills starting with his athleticism. He has shown the ability to rebound and start the fast break with his dribble, pushing tempo at 6’9 with speed. In my mind Sanchez is great value in the back end of the second round and a player who is a perfect NBA D-League stash as he improves his ability to defend the pick-and-roll at the NBA level.

(RELATED: JOE KOTOCH’S MOCK DRAFT 2.0: COMING OUT OF THE COMBINE)
(RELATED: NBA DRAFT PREVIEW: FIVE PLAYERS WHO IMPROVED STOCK AT PRE-DRAFT COMBINE)

Tommy Dee is the Director of Business Development for CHARGED.fm and was founder/executive editor of TheKnicksBlog.com from 2008-2013. He has contributed his scouting notes to Hoopsworld.com and SheridanHoops.com and the NBA Development League.