This is the best time of the year in the NBA. The draft is only days away, opt-in and opt-out decisions are due a couple days later, and free agency courtships can begin July 1.
We are currently in a holding pattern in which Kevin Love rumors, Carmelo Anthony speculation and Joel Embiid-Greg Oden comparisons are being wildly thrown around. You can lose track of yourself trying to keep track of all the rumors, so try to remember that rumors are a dime a dozen, whereas verifiable intelligence is harder to come by.
This much, however, seems clear: Kevin Love is likely to get traded, but whether it happens now, later this summer, sometime during the season, or prior to the trade deadline, nobody can say for sure. If Golden State refuses to part with Klay Thompson, that is probably a deal-killer for Minnesota. If the Wolves don’t like what they would get with a bunch of Boston’s trove of first-round picks, those visits to Fenway Park by Love will not be repeat occurrences in the fall if/when the Red Sox are competing for the pennant.
Might Love end up in Denver or Phoenix? Maybe, but probably not without some assurance that he will stick around long-term. Will he go to Cleveland for the No. 1 pick? Our man Joe Kotoch feels it is far more likely that the Cavs trade down a few spots in the draft.
What else is going on?
Heat fans were in a mass panic about LeBron James until Pat Riley gave a long news conference in which he told everyone to “get a grip.” Knicks fans are in a mass panic about Carmelo Anthony, and they should be. The smart money says he is leaving.
Elsewhere, folks are wondering what the trickle down effect will be from draft-night trades and superstar free agency decisions.
Here is an update on our Top 25 free agents — a file that will be continually updated every day between now and the end of August.
Players with team options for next season are not included, since those players will not dictate their own fates.
Key — ETO-Early Termination Option; U-Unrestricted free agent; R-Restricted free agent; PO-Player Option.
1. LeBron James, F, Miami Heat (ETO)
Betcha didn’t realize this: LeBron has never earned a max salary. Never. He has soon-to-depart teammates in Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, who have seen their max days come and go, and you would think he would want to reach that stratosphere before he turns 30 (which happens on New Year’s Eve). Will be a two-horse race between Miami and Cleveland, if it is a race at all, and can the Houston Rockets get into the mix? They’d certainly like to try. The guess here is that sunshine wins over snowstorms and oppressive humidity, but there is no telling what James is thinking. He can played his cards close to the vest. JUNE 20 UPDATE — Pat Riley told everyone to chill out. Think he knows something the rest of us don’t know? He said owner Mickey Arison is ready, willing and able to keep Miami’s core together even if it means going into luxury tax territory. Meanwhile, Daryl Morey awaits.
2. Carmelo Anthony, F, New York Knicks (ETO)
When Phil Jackson said the Knicks would be good whether or not Anthony returns, not many people gave much credence to the thought of a new MeloDrama — though they should have. Same thing when Jackson said he would hold Anthony to his word in regards to taking less than the max to help the Knicks move forward with cap flexibility. Knowing Anthony a little, I can tell you his: He is bound to say anything, even things he doesn’t really mean — like the fact that he’s willing to give the Knicks a discounted price. Sometimes, Anthony gives the questioner the answer he thinks is most fitting, whether or not it is truthful. This seems like one of those cases — and it would not surprise me in the least to see him leave. MAY 30 UPDATE-Team president Phil Jackson said he has asked Anthony to play out the final year of his contract. “I’m not losing sleep over it, but I’m definitely concerned about the idea of a guy going into free agency,” Jackson said. “It only takes one bidder out there who has availability who can ruin your hopes and chances. JUNE 21 UPDATE-Lots of folks saying the Bulls are the frontrunners, with Houston poised to make a strong pitch, too. This could end up as a sign-and-trade. JUNE 22 UPDATE — Anthony submitted his ETO letter four days before the June 23 deadline, according to Chris Herring of the Wall Street Journal.
3. Greg Monroe, F, Detroit Pistons (R)
He is going to get a max contract, because there just aren’t that many 24-years-olds standing 6-11 who can be obtained this summer. Also, his agent is David Falk, and if there is one thing that Falk knows how to do (aside from staying on Michael Jordan’s good side), it is getting his clients the most possible money. What makes the most sense is a max offer from the Lakers, who need to start putting together the building blocks of their future. Which means Stan Van Gundy (and Tom Gores) will need to decide: Is Monroe worthy of the max deal? Or should the Pistons decline to match and slide Josh Smith over to his natural position? JUNE 4 UPDATE — “I value Greg Monroe highly, yes, I do want him here,” Van Gundy said. “But … when you’re dealing with free agents, even restricted free agents, the situation gets more complicated.” JUNE 20 UPDATE — Van Gundy said he has been in almost daily contact with Monroe and Falk. Lakers still look like they’ll go hard after him.
4. Kyle Lowry, G, Toronto Raptors (U)
The general consensus among NBA personnel folks is that a four-year deal starting in the $11 million range will be enough for the Raptors to get their best player (apologies, DeMar DeRozan) to stick around. What could throw a monkey wrench into the equation is an offer north of that amount coming from a team trying to rebuild on the fly and loaded with cap space (the Lakers are one such team, and the Heat could be another if LeBron flees). A number of Lowry’s teammates expressed confidence in April that he will stick around for the long haul, but all bets are off if James leaves Miami — and Lowry becomes the first domino. JUNE 5 UPDATE — What will happen if a point guard is the best available option when the Raptors draft at No. 20? Good question, with good answers unclear. JUNE 20 UPDATE – Lowry to Miami is a viable option, with mutual interest, according to plugged-in ESPN analyst Brian Windhorst.
5. Lance Stephenson, G, Indiana Pacers (U)
You have to admire his fearlessness and feistiness, especially when it comes to competing against LeBron James, whose feuds with Stephenson over the past couple of seasons have brought extra sizzle to the Pacers-Heat rivalry. Not the sharpest knife in the drawer when it comes to IQ, Stephenson is nonetheless one of the more gifted all-around players in anybody’s backcourt. It makes sense for the Pacers to re-sign him for less than the max; it is debatable whether he is worth a max contract. But given the fact that teammate Roy Hibbert has a max deal, Lance will be looking for the same. The question is whether he’ll have leverage. JUNE 2 UPDATE — Who knows how Stephenson’s antics during the Eastern Conference finals, such as blowing in LeBron James’ ear, affected the market for him. Some may seem him as a wingnut, others as a fearless gamer. Will be interesting to watch.
6. Eric Bledsoe, G, Phoenix Suns (R)
When he wasn’t injured, Bledsoe showed exactly why teams were lining up to try to acquire him before he was eventually dealt by the Clippers to the Phoenix Suns. The NBA is a point guard-driven league, and this guy is the one player out there (yes, even more so than Lowry) who has superstar potential. The Lakers could do a lot worse than getting this guy along with Monroe, which together with Kobe Bryant and the Lakers’ lottery pick would have Jimmy Buss’ team contending from the opening tip this fall. And make no mistake, the Lakers would still love to get better at the expense of their old rivals, the Suns. JUNE 7 UPDATE — Speculation out there that Phoenix would be willing to do a sign-and-trade with Minnesota that would include Bledsoe for Kevin Love. Hey, if the two point guard alignment worked in Phoenix, why couldn’t it work with Ricky Rubio in Minnesota? JUNE 19 UPDATE_ Report that Sacramento floated an offer of Isaiah Thomas and the No. 8 pick.
7. Pau Gasol, F, Los Angeles Lakers (U)
If we are to assume that Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Bosh and Tim Duncan are all going to remain with their present teams – a sound assumption – then Pau deserves a free agent ranking ahead of all three of them. He can be acquired for less than the max, he fits as the last piece of a championship puzzle for a team that is one player away. Do not discount the idea of Gasol joining his brother, Marc, in Memphis. The Grizzlies could have Zach Randolph’s salary to spend, and Pau would be an upgrade on the knucklehead scale. (You won’t ever see Pau take himself out of a Game 7 with an ill-timed punch, a la Z-Bo.) Much depends on whether Randolph exercises his player option. MAY 28 UPDATE: SI.com says a poll of NBA executives on Gasol’s future returned many of the same answers: Chicago. Cleveland. Charlotte, Memphis, if Zach Randolph opts out. JUNE 21 UPDATE: Grizzlies discussing a long-term deal with Randolph, which would remove Memphis as a possible destination. Pau now looking like one of biggest FA wild cards.
8. Dwyane Wade, G, Miami Heat (ETO)
All that stuff about the breaking up of the Heat that got Riley so riled up? Yeah, it applies to this guy, too. And to Chris Bosh, who is lower on this list. But with Wade, you kind of get the idea that he is going to be a Miami lifer. The Heat are still probably willing to max him despite his 40-year-old knees, but the question becomes whether Wade can carry a team on offense the way he once did. He has become a major second banana to LeBron in Miami, and it would be prudent of the Heat to make Years 3 and 4 of his deal team options. He is an old 32. JUNE 19 UPDATE — Riley called Wade a “Heat for life” player. After his performance in the finals, I am second-guessing myself for listing him this high.
9. Dirk Nowitzki, F, Dallas Mavericks (U)
He isn’t going anywhere, but respect dictates that we place him and Tim Duncan in our top 10. It seems like an exercise in futility to list either guy as a free agent, because no one is expecting them to do anything other than end their careers exactly where they started them. With Dirk, it is a question of how much money he will make, and how much he will leave for Mark Cuban to play with in free agency down the road. He has already said he plans to play well into his 40s. JUNE 6 UPDATE — After Yahoo Sports reported that Nowitzki would be one of the players targeted by the Rockets, Mark Cuban responded: “I don’t pay attention to that.” JUNE 20 UPDATE: Nowitzki reiterated that he would meet with Cuban on July 1 and come to an agreement that gives the team cap flexibility. Dirk has played down the possibility of Mavs landing Carmelo Anthony.
10. Tim Duncan, F, San Antonio Spurs (PO)
Not going anywhere … except, perhaps, on permanent vacation to his home island of St. Croix. The Big Fundamental has kept his long-term career plans a closely guarded secret, and there is no telling whether Duncan feels it is time to hang up his sneakers and move on to the next stage of his life — which in St. Croix consists of watching sunsets and drinking rum. Still has a ton of basketball left in him. JUNE 8 UPDATE — After shooting 9-for-10 in Game 1 of the finals, we can probably say this guy has 2-3 years left — if he wants to keep playing. JUNE 21 UPDATE. After seeing the elation on this guy’s face following the Spurs’ finals win, it appears as though he’ll be back to defend the championship.
11. Chris Bosh, F, Miami Heat (ETO)
This is the part of the list where the Miami question moves to a different stage. Even if LeBron James and Dwyane Wade decide to return, will the third member of the Big Three join them if Miami is unwilling to max him? It will certainly be interesting — unless Bosh decides not to opt out. JUNE 5 UPDATE — Will be a target of the Rockets if he opts out of his deal. Might be just the type of player that would not need to demand the max, and would be a great stretch-4 upgrade over Terrence Jones. JUNE 21 UPDATE: Do not discount the Mavs as a possibility, but Bosh loves Miami and may sacrifice money to stay.
12. Luol Deng, F, Cleveland Cavaliers (U)
This is the part of the list where things get interesting. With Deng, he could be the missing link to a championship for a team needing a heady glue guy, a lockdown defender and a locker room leader. If the Cavs are going to go all-in for James, they will either have to trade away a ton of money along with that No. 1 pick to get Love, or else renounce their rights to Deng, who never fit in all that well after he was acquired at midseason in the Andrew Bynum trade. Deng is still only 29. JUNE 21 UPDATE: It is looking more and more like this guy could be one of the biggest value pick-ups available. Unclear how the hiring of David Blatt impacts his future as it relates to staying in Cleveland.