Sheridan: Team USA is not good enough to beat Spain … as of now

BARCELONA — If the gold medal match was being played Sunday, Team USA would not beat Spain. It wouldn’t even be close.

But the gold medal game is not this Sunday. It is next Sunday.

And a lot can change in a week.

So the burden is on coach Mike Krzyzewski: Figure out who is going to give you the best chance to beat the host nation, start shortening up the rotation, and hope that in one week you can achieve what it has taken the Spanish team years to build: cohesion.

“I wish they knew each other better — you can’t force that maturation process,” Krzyzewski said of his squad after Team USA took down Mexico 86-63 Saturday in the first Round of 16 game at the World Cup. Stephen Curry led the Americans with 20 points, Klay Thompson scored 15 and James Harden 12 as the Americans finally showed some semblance of offensive balance after being led by Kenneth Faried and Anthony Davis over the first five games of the tournament.

The maturation process is one of the key elements to watch over the next eight days as the tournament moves into the quarterfinals against Slovenia, then the semifinals, then the gold medal game next Sunday night in Madrid. Yes, there is a hypothetical chance that the opponent could be Greece or Serbia. But you can drive yourself crazy dealing with hypotheticals that have little chance of happening, so it is best to approach things one day at a time and prepare for what is likely, not what is unlikely.

And right now, a gold medal game matchup with Spain seems likely. And you know what happens in that game? Serge Ibaka neutralizes Kenneth Faried. Marc and Pau Gasol get to attack Anthony Davis one-on-one in the low post the same way that Gustavo Ayon of Mexico did with such aplomb today, shooting 11-for-19 and scoring 25 points before DeMarcus Cousins (5-for-5 for 11 points and seven rebounds in 13 1/2 minutes) reminded everyone that he will be a weapon, too. Perhaps even a neutralizer against Pau and Marc. Right now I’d go so far as to say he is probably the most important player on the roster when it comes to the question of whether Team USA will fly home with gold or silver medals a week from Monday.

My second choice for Most Important Player is Curry. He was 3-for-3 in the third quarter against Mexico from 3-point range, and he is one of the few players with the international experience to know precisely what awaits the Americans around the corner. He went through this four years ago in Turkey.

There is a high likelihood that it’ll be a cakewalk into the gold medal game for team USA. Lithuania is tough as nails but is not oozing with talent like Team USA is. The Americans should be able to beat them with ball pressure in the backcourt, by forcing turnovers and by attacking big men Jonas Valanciunas and Donetas Montiejunas, getting them into foul trouble. In a war of attrition, the Americans will come out ahead.

But the final against Spain? A whole different animal. Ball pressure is not going to rattle Sergio Rodriguez or Ricky Rubio or Jose Calderon or Juan Carlos Navarro. They may not be particularly quick, but they are particularly smart — and they have a level of familiarity with each other that the Americans cannot touch, no matter what kind of maturation miracles Coach K can coax out of this team.

Which brings us back to an earlier point: It is time to shorten the rotation, to lock in on the 8 guys who are going to matter on the evening of Sept. 14.

So let’s make some, ahem, cuts. We shall channel Donald Trump.

Derrick Rose? Glad you were able to come over here and get your wind back. Thanks for your effort. But 0-for-5 with three turnovers in 16 minutes against Mexico is a pretty decent measurement of where you are at. The backup PG now becomes Curry. And Kyrie Irving starts playing 32 minutes per game. Rose sits.

Mason Plumlee? Hey, nobody will ever fault you for making the team out of training camp when you weren’t even on the roster. Heck of an accomplishment. But that near trillion (1 rebound y nada mas in 6 minutes) vs. Mexico showed that you are not ready to be a real contributor at this stage of your Team USA career. Don’t let it get you down. Anthony Davis was useless, too, just two years ago in London. And look how far he has come.

DeMar DeRozan? One of the most egregious missed layups in international basketball history sealed your fate. Grab a towel. Wave it. Enjoy the nightlife in Barcelona. Don’t expect to see one single meaningful minute from here on out.

Andre Drummond? Stay ready. You might not see another meaningful minute in the quarterfinals and the semifinals, but the gold medal game is a different story. You were brought here as an insurance policy in the event that foul trouble or an injury knocks Cousins or Davis out of a gold medal match against Spain. You may end up being the last line of defense. So stay calm, and practice your free throws. Nothing scares the American federation more than having you on the foul line in the final minute of a tight game.

Going forward, there are three guys who need to play 30-35 minutes: Irving, Curry and Faried. Kyrie is the only true point guard anywhere near on top of his game. Curry is the only guy aside from Rudy Gay with actual on-court experience in one of these tournaments. Faried is the only true power forward, and everyone on the team needs to feed off his energy.

Cousins needs to learn how to play without committing fouls. He tried to draw three charges against Mexico, and he only got one whistle. If you think the refs are out to get him, you are not alone. Krzyzewski gave him an A-plus. “I’m not going to grade the other guys,” said Coach K, who did not have any other nominees for an A-plus.

Gay, who was not even with the team in training camp in Las Vegas (you remember, back when Paul George broke his leg and Kevin Durant had not yet quit the team), looks more confident than Klay Thompson but might not be a better weapon than Thompson. One of those two guys will need to come up huge against Spain, and the bet here is that it will be Gay rather than Klay.

Lastly, there is James Harden, who has been a rock on both ends of the floor. He is the team captain, and team captains who lead by example are indispensable. Somehow, Coach K needs to find him 28-30 minutes of playing time.

So of those eight key guys, there are 200 minutes to be split up as the rotation gets shortened, which is what is about to happen.

We’ll allot 100 to Irving, Curry and Faried, 29 to Harden, 25 apiece to Davis and Cousins (they can play together when Faried is out), and another 21 to Gay/Thompson.

Is that the best team in the world? Right now, I have to say no. Spain can beat that team, and beat it soundly.

But again, a lot can change in a week. Let’s see how things develop before speaking in absolutes.

Chris Sheridan is publisher and editor-in-chief of SheridanHoops.com. He has covered every senior U.S. national team since the 1996 Olympics. Follow him on Twitter.