For those who gamble, the preseason over/under win projections are wondrous to pore over. It is the one point during the year when you can make an assessment of how the offseason went, and how it will translate into success — or lack hereof — on the court.
Last season, two-thirds of the NBA teams failed to reach their projected win total.
This season, nobody is projected to win 60 games by the oddsmakers in Las Vegas, which I find interesting. It would not surprise me at all to have three 60-win teams — the Spurs, the Cavaliers and the Bulls. And there could be a fourth or a fifth if the Thunder and/or the Clippers exceed expectations.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Sixers have been given an even lower win-loss projection than a year ago, when their number was 16 1/2 and they finished with 19. This year, the projected win total is 15 1/2 – and the guess here is that the Sixers will not get there.
Let’s have a look at all 30 NBA teams and their projected win totals. My picks are in bold.
Cavaliers — 58.5
Their Big Three is probably better than Miami’s old Big Three. They should reach 60 wins. OVER
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Thunder — 57.5
They won 59 a year ago with Thabo Sefolosha as a starter. Anthony Morrow is better. OVER
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Spurs — 56.5
Bringing back exact same team that won 62. This seems unreasonably low. OVER
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Bulls — 55.5
If they stay healthy all season, 60 is within their grasp. An injury to Rose or Gasol would kill them. OVER
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Clippers — 55.5
Not all that far from being a top echelon team. Won 57 last season, so … OVER
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Warriors — 50.5
This is where it starts getting tricky. They were at 51 a year ago. They should remain in that neighborhood. UNDER
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Rockets — 49.5
After winning 54 a year ago, lost a ton of talent over the summer. UNDER
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Mavericks — 49.5
They will be sneaky good, but they will miss Shawn Marion on D. OVER
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Raptors — 49.5
Tied for third in East last season with 48 wins. They will be right around their number. UNDER
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Wizards — 49.5
Losing Trevor Ariza was a bigger blow than Ernie Grunfeld would have you believe. UNDER
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Trail Blazers — 48.5
Nobody runs hot and cold like these guys. Still lacking in depth, but love their starters. OVER
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Grizzlies — 48.5
Vince Carter was the most underrated pickup of the offseason. OVER
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Hornets — 45.5
Indiana’s loss is Charlotte’s gain. Lance gives them a real chance. OVER
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Heat — 43.5
This win total is 10 1/2 lower than last season’s. But the East is still weak. OVER
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Suns — 42.5
Big drop for a team that won 48. Too many PGs, but still … OVER
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Nets — 41.5
Lionel Hollins does not coach .500 teams. He makes .500 teams .600 teams. OVER
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Pelicans — 41.5
A year away from being a year away, to paraphrase Fran Fraschilla. UNDER
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Nuggets — 40.5
These teams pegged at the .500 mark are very difficult calls. West is a beast. UNDER
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Hawks — 40.5
Got into the playoffs with 38 wins last season .. and then played Pacers tough. Sleeper. OVER
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Knicks — 40.5
Two years until Kevin Durant does or doesn’t come aboard. It’ll be a long season. UNDER
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Pistons — 36.5
Stan Van Gundy has never coached a team with a losing record. Never. OVER
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Pacers — 32.5
My mission for this season is to watch them as little as possible. Payback for last two seasons. UNDER
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Lakers — 31.5
Overmatched in a tough conference, even with Kobe back. UNDER
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Kings — 30.5
See that Lakers comment? It applies here, too – except for the Kobe part. UNDER
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Magic — 28.5
Will win more than their share against dregs of East. Vucevic will be an All-Star. OVER
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Celtics — 26.5
When Rondo slips in the shower before preseason begins, it does not augur well. UNDER
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Timberwolves — 25.5
This year’s Phoenix Suns – to a degree. Should get to 30 Ws. OVER
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Jazz — 25.5
Rebuilding takes time. Like the core, but they are Pelicans Lite. UNDER
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Bucks — 24.5
Will draw flies, which does not bode well for them remaining in Milwaukee. UNDER
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76ers — 15.5
Quite possibly the worst NBA team ever assembled. UNDER
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Chris Sheridan is publisher and editor-in-chief of SheridanHoops.com. Follow him on Twitter.
Holy wow thank god I did not make same bets as you.
The disconnect is because the “oddsmakers” aren’t projecting how many games they think each team will win. Rather, just like betting lines, they set the over/under where they are likely to maximize their return based on where the public is likely to place their bets.