Indiana Pacers NBA Preview Five Things to Watch 2014-15

Although the departure of Lance Stephenson has been seen as a crucial loss for the Indiana Pacers, the team was prepared to move forward without him.

Was the five-year, $44 million deal scoffed at by Stephenson more of a calculated play by Larry Bird and the front office than an irreversible blunder?

The takeaway from Stephenson’s departure was the team believing, to a certain degree, that Lance was a bigger factor in Indiana’s dysfunctional quasi-collapse following last season’s All-Star break than Paul George’s declining shooting percentages, Roy Hibbert’s mental funk, players growing weary of Frank Vogel’s eternal optimism or the misguided acquisitions of Evan Turner and Andrew Bynum at the cost of Danny Granger and Orlando Johnson.

But it only took an instant, at a Team USA scrimmage in Las Vegas, for the Pacers to be forced to re-evaluate their entire 2014-15 campaign.

Stephenson or no Stephenson, the loss of George to a gruesome broken leg stands to singlehandedly move Indiana from one of the elite teams in the Eastern Conference to a team that will be fighting nightly to stay in the playoff picture.

The Pacers had no way to prepare for the devastating injury to George.

To be fair, however, no team is prepared to lose its best player so deep into the summer. George hasn’t begun rehabilitating but since the injury, but his appearance at Media Day without a boot turned out to be one of the positive things to take from Media Day.

To make matters worse for the Pacers, they are setting up for a potentially lost season while likely having too much talent to bottom out the way the neighboring Colts did three years ago.

Here are five things to watch for with the Pacers this season.

1. It’s do or die time for George Hill and Roy Hibbert. If there’s one silver lining to come from Paul George’s injury, it is that Indiana will know immediately whether George Hill and Roy Hibbert are the right pieces for Indiana to move forward once George returns.

With Hibbert, the reason is obvious. After running away as the league’s best defensive player that earned him his second All-Star bid, Hibbert collapsed amidst locker room rumors, taking the entire Pacers team with him. The fragility of his psyche is nothing new but still managed to reach new depths with his abysmal play last spring in the playoffs.

His postseason performances became increasingly inexcusable, and he has since been involved in just about every Pacers trade rumor since the offseason began. But as bad as Hibbert played in the second half of last season, he is still a game-changing defensive presence inside. It’s a rare commodity to have, much less on a team that touts a ferocious defense such as Indiana’s.

Hill has willingly or smartly taken a back seat in Indiana’s starting lineup the past two seasons with the emergence of Stephenson. His aggressiveness has been called into question, something that has proven to be a valuable addition to Indiana’s struggling offense when he doesn’t sit back and let the game come to him. With Hill set up to likely be Indiana’s minutes leader, a lot will be asked of him when it comes to offense. And if the Pacers can’t trust him this season, it will be difficult to trust him moving forward.

2. Frank Vogel needs to show growth as a coach. It’s not really fair to suggest Vogel is on the hot seat. But it’s also not fair to suggest he should be out of the woods for a lack of growth as a coach this season. Vogel fell under justified criticism last season for a lack of imagination on offense. The Pacers have only needed to hover around league averages in offensive efficiency to be nearly unbeatable these past two seasons, but failures to show strides in that regard – along with the complete collapse of Indiana’s offense in the second half of the season – magnified even the slightest slip in Indiana’s defense, turning the Pacers from a potential title contender to a .500 team.

Vogel also has been over-reliant on his starting five in his tenure, which the starters themselves attributed to the collapse last season due to their growing fatigue. It’s hard to fault Vogel, given how good the starters have been as a unit. But it has come at the cost of minutes management and an ability to build up the bench.

Vogel received some frosty vibes from Bird this past season but ultimately appears safe now that he has received a multi-year contract extension, which means the Pacers won’t hold this season against him. While he shouldn’t be judged on wins and losses this season, he deserves to be judged on his growth as a coach.

3. Where does this leave David West? West’s rather forlorn Media Day presser was rooted in being “realistic” about the team’s chances this season. He talked about how being a contender was no longer possible and the things he came to Indiana for were no longer attainable. At 34, West originally was expecting to see his minutes drop under 30 as he worked toward another deep playoff run. But instead of being a rock the Pacers can lean on in difficult times, he has suddenly become Indiana’s greatest trade asset.

West has another year on his contract following this season. As his career winds down, it makes little sense to keep him for what amounts to a lost season now and a potential readjustment season in 2015-16. West could prove to be a popular name as the trade deadline nears, regardless of where the Pacers find themselves.

4. Who will pick up the offensive slack? Indiana lost 40 percent of its starting lineup from last season and will need to replace it somehow. The Pacers not only lost their Nos. 1 and 3 scorers, but also their top two players in assists and rebounds per game. That leaves a gaping hole for a team that struggled enough offensively with both players around. The offseason additions of Rodney Stuckey and C.J. Miles will help soften the blow, but neither are anywhere near fearsome all-around players.

Indiana also will need to replace an even more irreplaceable hole on defense with the loss of George’s elite defensive skills. At the start of training camp, the Pacers looked to start Stuckey and Solomon Hill, Indiana’s 2013 first-round pick. Despite playing just 226 minutes last season, the Pacers are hopeful that Hill can step into a larger role as someone the Pacers can rely on defensively. This was part of the reason they didn’t push too hard for the return of Stephenson, even if replacing George is another thing entirely.

5. Can the Pacers win games? Should they? How the Pacers look to open the regular season stands to be much different than the team that finishes the regular season. Much of that will depend on how the season itself plays out; Indiana will have two West coast swings in the first two months of the season to go with a Texas trip to Dallas and San Antonio.

There’s certainly a chance that the Pacers’ playoff hopes get away from them early as they work to figure out how to play together, but aiming to be a tough first-round exit shouldn’t be Indiana’s goal this season. The Pacers gain very little being in the same position they were in in 2011, when they fought the Chicago Bulls tough but lost in the opening round.

Whether it results in a playoff berth or a high lottery pick, the focus of the Pacers in 2014-15 needs to be setting themselves up for next season and beyond.

Nathan Samples is the editor of SB Nation’s Indy Cornrows. You can follow the site on Twitter @IndyCornrows or Nathan himself @plusnathan.