For the first time in years, the Chicago Bulls entered the offseason with salary cap flexibility and great expectations in the free agent market. But they finished second in the Carmelo Anthony sweepstakes, whiffed on Kevin Love and settled for veteran Pau Gasol as a consolation prize.
However, if this team has the look of the same old Bulls, that may not be all bad. Derrick Rose returns from what amounts to a two-year layoff, and if the former MVP can turn back the clock, Chicago figures to be a threat to win the Eastern Conference, which looks to be ordinary again.
Here’s five things to watch with the Bulls this season.
1. Derrick Rose’s physical and mental state. Has one knee ever been more scrutinized in NBA history? That would be Rose’s surgically repaired left knee, which had everyone from Bulls fans to the Chicago media in a near panic in the preseason. To hear many fans and media predict it, his future did hinge on every game. It hinged on every shot, it seemed.
Rose’s opinion carries the most weight right now, and it has been decidedly upbeat since the start of training camp. “I know I’m going to win a championship soon,” he announced at media day. His summer stint with Team USA gave him a six-week head start on training camp.
It is possible that the 26-year-old Rose will be close to his old MVP self before long. What is far more likely, however, is that we’ve already seen the best of him. After Rose went down with a dreaded ACL tear in April 2012, a player at his age could expect a 6.3 percent drop-off statistically the next season, according to a Basketball Prospectus study. And that was before he tore the meniscus in his right knee in November. Indeed, the slippage was apparent in a 10-game test early last season, when Rose played tentatively, especially close to the basket.
That being said, Rose at 93.7 percent efficiency could be enough to push a deeper Bulls team to the next level come playoff time. Until then, Bulls fans may want to wait until the All-Star break before they make plans for a parade or seek out the nearest ledge. The Rose Comeback, Part II is a work in progress, and it’s likely to remain that way for weeks, if not months.
2. Tom Thibodeau’s strategy and tactics. At a time when coaches are all but optional in pro sports, Thibodeau’s iron-fisted, old-school approach is a welcomed change. He demands a full effort every practice and game – imagine that! – a mindset that give his team a decided advantage in the regular season.
But does the refusal to concede defeat in the regular season outweigh the negative effects it may have in the postseason? Is it necessary for Thibodeau’s best player to be on the court with a 12-point lead and the ball late in a playoff game? Because that was the precise situation in which Rose blew out his knee the first time.
Says one longtime Bulls insider: “If the goal is to win in the regular season, then there’s no question that Thibs is a great coach. But if it’s a championship you want, that’s a different story. He refuses to budge regardless of the situation, and that takes a physical and mental toll on the players late in the season. His teams run the same plays with the same guys in the playoffs that it does in the regular season, and that makes it easier for opponents to prepare in a short series.”
Thibodeau has made some concessions in the practice regimen, but at 56, he is too set in his ways to make significant changes any time soon. “Hey, I’m going to coach my way, and whatever happens, happens,” he told reporters recently. “You do whatever you have to do to win. That’s the way I look at it.”
Can Thibodeau win it all his way? Or is he destined to become a modern-day Don Nelson, an otherwise successful coach who can’t win the big ones? We shall see.
3. The health of the veteran core. Thibodeau’s demanding style can make a young team seem old. Of Chicago’s 12 potential rotation players, just four are over 30 – Kirk Hirich (33), Pau Gasol (34), Mike Dunleavy (34) and Nazr Mohammed (old enough to have played for the Chicago Zephyrs). But that doesn’t tell the whole story.
Joakim Noah and Aaron Brooks both turn 30 before the playoffs. Jimmy Butler (25) was second in the NBA in minutes per game. Taj Gibson (29) averaged 28.7 minutes despite starting just eight games. And no one really knows what Rose (26) can handle, at least at the outset.
So when Rose says he plans to hoist his first championship trophy soon, he presumably means in the next two seasons, because the nucleus is well into the back nine, and its window of opportunity won’t remain open forever.
In particular, the bigs should be monitored closely. Gasol comes off a forgettable Lakers farewell and has played more than 65 games in only one of the last five seasons. Once again, Noah limped to the finish line on a bum left knee last spring, the continuation of a troubling trend that saw his win shares per 48 minutes decrease from the regular season to the postseason in four of the last five years. A reduced workload may benefit Noah even if it means fewer victories in the regular season.
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4. State of the offense. No team makes a greater commitment to defense, where Thibodeau has left an indelible mark in the league. Yet while Chicago ranked fifth and second in defense efficiency the last two seasons, it was 24th and 27th, repectively, at the other end. That’s hardly the formula for postseason success. Rose’s absence had a lot to do with the inconsistency, but so did the lack of consistent perimeter shooters.
Enter first-round picks Doug McDermott and Nikola Mirotic, who were acquired in draft-day trades three years apart. Dougie McBuckets arrives via Denver with a funny nickname and a serious jump shot. A stretch four who also can run the floor, Mirotic comes from Europe, where he spent the last three seasons.
While the M&M boys figure to have their moments in the regular season, the playoffs may be an entirely different matter. The only thing Thibodeau trusts less than a rookie is a rookie who’s a defensive liability, and neither guy excels in that area. As the coach admitted, “Where (the plan) goes, I don’t know. I do know there’s a steep learning curve.”
GM Gar Forman may have been wise to hang on to Dunleavy, who provides an experienced alternative.
5. Team toughness. Despite Chicago’s reputation as a tough team that plays with plenty of grit, word around the league is that the Bulls can be bullied. The Wizards did it last postseason, when Nene and and Martin Gortat pushed around Chicago’s players like lawn chairs for five games.
The Wizards picked up where they left off in the preseason, when Paul Pierce poked Noah in the forehead during a scuffle. Noah is the team enforcer by default, but he’s too valuable to be in the middle of a scrum. Even Thibodeau questioned the physical condition and toughness of his team after a recent preseason game when he said, “We have a lot of work to do in those areas.”
The Bulls need a thug. Kenyon Martin and Jason Collins are still on the market, and there is an available roster spot.
And hey, Dennis Rodman is only a phone call away, you know.
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Paul Ladewski is a veteran Chicago sports journalist and occasional contributor to SheridanHoops.com.