Now that Josh Smith is gone, what does the long-term future hold for Greg Monroe? A rival executive believes he will end up with the New York Knicks.
“I could see $48 million for four years. I don’t think he’s a max (contract) guy, but he is pretty good. He might get more based on who is left on the board. I could see New York overpaying him,” the executive told SheridanHoops.
Monroe has a trade veto after signing his qualifying offer with the Pistons over the summer, and if he were to accept a trade, he would waive his Bird rights. The Knicks have only $44 million in committed salaries for next season, and their choices in free agency will be especially limited if, as many believe, Marc Gasol chooses to stay in Memphis and LaMarcus Aldridge opts to remain in Portland. They will have the cap room to offer Monroe or someone else (Goran Dragic?) a max deal, and the executive who spoke on condition of anonymity believes Monroe may be the perfect fit.
Might the Knicks try to trade for Monroe before then? If they had something to offer the Pistons that was not a first-round draft pick, perhaps. But it behooves Phil Jackson to wait until July, when he can have his lottery pick and Monroe, too.
While most of the attention around the NBA in the past two days has been focused on where Josh Smith might sign, the Monroe question carries bigger long-term implications.
An Eastern Conference scout also believes Monroe and the Knicks could be a fit down the road.
“I think the Knicks are a possible free agency destination,” the scout told SheridanHoops. “He has above-average passing ability, which makes him attractive for the triangle. If the Knicks strike out on the so-called top-tier guys, I think it makes sense.”
New York was expected to make free agent runs at Gasol, Rajon Rondo and Aldridge. However, Rondo – who was dealt to Dallas – is expected to re-sign with the Mavericks this summer. Aldridge is expected to re-sign with Portland because the team owns his Bird rights and can offer him the most money. Aldridge also has a rising young supporting cast around him in Damian Lillard and Nicolas Batum while Robin Lopez and Wesley Matthews will also become unrestricted free agents.
That means second-tier free agents like Monroe and Chicago’s Jimmy Butler will get more interest and a nice payday once the elite crop thins out.
The free agent center crop has a chance to be unusually plentiful. The top unrestricted free agents include Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler, Omer Asik, Robin Lopez and Brandan Wright. There’s also a trio with player options at the end of the season including Al Jefferson, Brook Lopez and Roy Hibbert.
Some around the league differ on whether Monroe is a center or power forward, which could affect his market.
“Depending on a team’s offense he can play both spots,” a Western Conference executive told SheridanHoops. “In a traditional game he is a four, but the way many teams are now playing, he can play five.”
Ultimately, the beauty is always in the eye of the beholder.
“It only takes one team to think he is worth a max (contract),” the Western Conference executive told SheridanHoops. “This new TV deal might change player values too.”
“With all the money on the market and the cap rising, I suspect someone offers him close to the max,” another Eastern Conference general manager told SheridanHoops.
For Stan Van Gundy and the Pistons, the trial and error of Smith illustrates the importance of player evaluations. The Pistons made the decision to eat the remaining 2 1/2 years on Smith’s contract, costing them about $35 million.
“I think there tends to be an opinion that we just know the NBA players,” Van Gundy said. “I don’t think we watch them as closely as we need to. Those are huge decisions. You don’t want to make a mistake in the draft, but the way it’s set up now if you make a mistake in the draft at least it’s low cost. If you’re going to go out and spend $14 million a year, $15 million a year on a guy and you make a mistake, now you’re really hurting.”
Without Smith, Van Gundy will fill the void with Monroe and evaluate whether the 24-year-old is a core member of the future to build around. The Pistons, if they do not trade Monroe, can offer him more than any other team.
According to Van Gundy, Monroe has already made a positive impression through roughly a third of the season.
“Well, he’s been our best low-post scorer, so that’s the main thing that he’s brought, but he’s also rebounded the ball very well,” Van Gundy said. “He’s one of the top rebounders in the league so that’s a pretty good combination.”
After originally being drafted No. 7 overall by Detroit in 2010, I asked Monroe if he still considers himself a core member of the Pistons’ future.
“Yeah, I’ve always felt like that,” Monroe told SheridanHoops. “Obviously now when I get to that point, I’ll just see what’s best for me. But right now I’m just focusing on this season right now.”
On Sunday – a day before the team waived Smith – I asked Van Gundy if Monroe is a part of the future core he envisions for the Pistons during this development period.
“Well a lot of that will be Greg’s choice so we don’t have a lot of choice in that,” Van Gundy replied. “Obviously he’ll be a free agent. But, I like what Greg has given us; he’s a pro, he works hard every day. He’s played well, a little up and down of late, but he’s played well and I really have great respect for him as a person and a player.”
With that in mind, I asked Monroe what he thought of the Pistons’ organization.
“Obviously the ownership and front office that drafted me is no longer here so it’s been different, but I’ve never had any problem with any coach and so I’ve liked it here despite the limited success,” Monroe told SheridanHoops.
Monroe has played for five different coaches, which has contributed to a 118-222 overall record during his tenure.
Now paired with Andre Drummond in the frontcourt, Monroe hopes to broaden his offensive arsenal while better complementing his fellow big man in the process.
“Just continue to expand my range and just continue to get more comfortable further away from the basket,” Monroe told SheridanHoops. “I think since I’ve been in the league I’ve gotten a lot better on the block. Now I just want to expand my game a little more.”
Monroe’s efficiency drastically declines outside of five feet according to his shot distance breakdown. Inside of five feet Monroe is 118-216 (.546). However, from 5-9 feet Monroe is 19-62 (.306). Monroe has only taken five shots in the from 10-14 feet and is 6-14 (.429) from 15-19 feet.
Monroe will have plenty of chances to develop his range if Van Gundy’s recent comments after releasing Smith are any indication.
“Our team has not performed the way we had expected throughout the first third of the season and adjustments need to be made in terms of our focus and direction,” Van Gundy said. “We are shifting priorities to aggressively develop our younger players while also expanding the roles of other players in the current rotation to improve performance and build for our future. As we expand certain roles, others will be reduced. In fairness to Josh, being a highly versatile 10-year veteran in this league, we feel it’s best to give him his freedom to move forward. We have full respect for Josh as a player and a person.”
As for Smith, the Houston Rockets, Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Clippers and Miami Heat have all reportedly expressed interest in the versatile forward.
Houston’s Dwight Howard and Smith have a close bond dating back to their childhood in Atlanta.
“Have I been in his ear? Yeah, I’ve been in his ear. The only thing I told him was that if you want to win this would be a great place for you,” Howard said.
Rondo was a high school teammate of Smith’s at Oak Hill Academy.
Los Angeles’ assistant coach Mike Woodson coached Smith for six seasons with the Atlanta Hawks.
Miami believes Smith can slide in at power forward to create a formidable frontcourt tandem with Chris Bosh at center and Luol Deng at small forward.
Sacramento has been Smith’s biggest suitor for over a year, but with the team in disarray following the firing of coach Mike Malone, there is little chance Smith will reciprocate the interest.
No teams are expected to place a waiver claim on Smith. At this time, Smith is figuring out what to do with his children who are enrolled in school and has not set a specific timetable for when he’ll choose his next destination, a source close to the situation tells SheridanHoops. The source also said Smith hasn’t narrowed down a preferred list of free agent destinations as a result.
Michael Scotto is an NBA columnist for SheridanHoops.com. Follow him on Twitter: @MikeAScotto.
The only thing about Monroe to Knicks, is that by getting rid of Smith, Pistons should be focused on re-signing him. Pistons can offer a 5th year, with larger increases. And its not as though the Knicks are going to be a better team going forward. Both teams are bad.
knicks have a star and money. i believe them to be more promising than the pistons