New Year’s Day brought the latest round of All-Star balloting returns, and it’s a safe bet that the five leading vote-getters in each conference will remain there.
Stephen Curry and Kobe Bryant lead the West backcourt, with James Harden trailing Kobe by about 180,000 votes. In the West frontcourt, Anthony Davis is a shoo-in, with Blake Griffin and Marc Gasol second and third, and Tim Duncan trailing Gasol by 55,000 votes.
In the East, John Wall and Dwyane Wade are No. 1 and 2, with Kyrie Irving nearly 90,000 votes behind. In the frontcourt (fans no longer vote for two forwards and a center, choosing three frontcourt players instead), LeBron James leads all vote-getters with nearly 776,000 votes, and Pau Gasol and Carmelo Anthony are a solid in 2nd and 3rd, with Chris Bosh trailing ‘Melo by 82,000 votes.
So of the 10 probable starters, only Anthony is the winner by virtue of popularity. Let’s face it, no player on a team with more losses than the 76ers deserves to be seen at All-Star Weekend — even if it is in New York, and that players toils for the Knicks.
So the coaches will choose the seven reserves, and it is somewhat of a tough task to narrow down the field.
Does Russell Westbrook’s extended injury absence cost him? Same for his teammate, Kevin Durant.
Will the East-leading Raptors, Wizards and Hawks get only one player apiece. And if that is the case, who will represent the Hawks?
With those thoughts in mind, let’s take a look at the probabilities of certain players making the 12-man rosters. We’ll start with the West.
WEST
SHOO-INS:
Tim Duncan San Antonio Spurs: Averaging a double-double (15.9 points and 10.7 rebounds) along with a team-leading 2.1 blocks. There are only 10 players in the entire NBA averaging double figures in rebounds, and a bunch of them (Andre Drummond, Kevin Love, DeAndre Jordan, Zach Randolph) are not having All-Star caliber seasons. Duncan looks like a man of 28, not 38. He could still be an All-Star when he is 40. This will be his 15th appearance, tied with Kevin Garnett and Shaquille O’Neal for third all-time behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (20) and Kobe Bryant (17).
LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers. Dropping 23 points per game for the second-place team in the West, a team that East Coast folks are not getting enough exposure to. Yes, that is a common complaint from East Coast folks like myself, but there comes an age (49 in my case) when knocking down a bunch of 9 p.m. coffee reaches the point of diminishing returns. He is every bit as worthy as teammate Damian Lillard, and a case can be made that Wes Mathews belongs, too. Did you realize that as the new year began, Matthews was the only player with more than 100 3-pointers made? Still, Aldridge is the key player on this team. When he is in New York for AS Weekend, the locals will implore him to sign with the Knicks as a free agent. Can I see that happening? Um, no.
James Harden, Houston Rockets. Leads the league in scoring (27.2 ppg, 10 points above his career average). First guy since Kobe Bryant to make Dwight Howard play second fiddle — and this time Dwight is OK with it. A machine when it comes to drawing fouls and getting to the line. Early leader in my MVP rankings. Leads league in 30-point games (14) and 40-point games (3). In 32 games, has failed to reach 20 points only six times. Best beard in NBA, no matter what Quincy Acy thinks. Or Gregg Popovich. And Pop has a vote.
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers. A shoo-in? Yeah, I think so. You know what coaches value above all else? Winning. And the Blazers have won more games than any team in the NBA, with 26 Ws entering Saturday night’s games. Add in the fact that he is in the top 10 in scoring, and making nearly 40 percent of his 3s (that is a higher percentage than Steph Curry), and his 2.38 assists-to-turnovers ratio is also better than Curry’s — though just by a tiny fraction — and I move him from bubble guy to shoo-in.
Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors. Yes, winning is all important. And when coaches have to fill out their ballots, they are limited to two guards, three frontcourt players and two others from any position. And if a majority go with Duncan and Aldridge, is there is room for both Dwight Howard and DeMarcus Cousins — the latter more deserving than the former, IMHO. It’ll be a close call. You could even make a case that Thompson’s teamate, Draymond Green, is more deserving than Dwight. As for the backcourt, there will undoubtedly be some support thrown towards Chris Paul. But if you have to pick two point guards and two shooting guards, the second Splash brother has the credentials — 21.1 ppg, 30.4 ppg per 48 minutes — to fill out a foursome led by Harden and Lillard.
Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers. When you break basketball down to its very basics, what do you want from your point guard. You want him to be a floor general, you want him to get other involved, and you ant him to protect the ball. The statistic that quantified this best is assists-to turnover ratio, and nobody in the NBA comes close to Paul’s ratio of 4.49 (Kemba Walker is second at 3.34), and league assists leader John Wall is at a pedestrian 2.77. Paul is also second in the league in steals, and his 3-point percentage is nearly 4-0 percent as he averages 17.7 ppg for a Clippers team that has won two-thirds of its games and has gone 12-6 vs. the Western Conference (only Memphis and Golden State are better).
BEST OF THE REST
Only one spot is available if the six players listed above are chosen. Who do you like from the group that includes DeMarcus Cousins, Rajon Rondo, Dirk Nowitzki, Zach Randolph, Wes Mathews, Russell Westbrook, Monta Ellis, Dwight Howard, Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe? Vote in the poll below.
NEXT: THE EAST
Chris Sheridan is publisher and editor-in-chief of SheridanHoops.com. Follow him on Twitter.
Why isn’t Mike Conley considered even a long shot while Rajon Rondo, Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic are?
Conley is averaging 18.0 PPG, 6.1 APG and has a PER of 20.84. Bledsoe is averaging 16.7 PPG, 5.9 APG and a PER of 19.45. Dragic averages 16.7 PPG, 4.0 APG and a PER of 17.71. Looking at the numbers suggests Conley is the stronger of the three.
Add in the Memphis Grizzlies performance this season (3rd best record in the West) and the fact that Conley has been one of the most consistent performers during crunch time in games and it appears that Conley should be considered ahead of Bledsoe or Dragic.