Many teams are preparing for a free agency bonanza in the summer of 2016 when the salary cap is projected to rise to roughly $90 million with stars such as Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, Joakim Noah, etc. all potentially be available.
However, teams that aren’t in the running for a superstar in 2016 will spend big this summer on players who are valuable but not household names. Any deal signed this summer will ultimately be considered below market value starting in 2016 and beyond, when more lucrative contracts can be signed.
With that in mind, five sleeper free agents will benefit the most from this way of thinking and cash in during July.
Several general managers and executives told SheridanHoops they believe Khris Middleton, who has become a go-to guy for the playoff-bound Milwaukee Bucks, is worth $10 million annually and can get roughly a four-year, $40 million offer this summer as a restricted free agent.
“I would love to be here,” Middleton told SheridanHoops. “As an NBA player, you don’t want to be someone that’s bouncing around from team to team. I would love to be here, but at the same time I’ve got to keep my options open.”
After languishing on the bench in Detroit during his rookie season, Middleton became a starter last season with Milwaukee and management has since viewed him as a core piece of the future.
Middleton averaged career highs in points (13.4), rebounds (4.4) and steals (1.5) per game while shooting 47 percent from the field and 41 percent from downtown under the guidance of coach Jason Kidd.
“He’s definitely taught me a lot of things about this game and about the business,” Middleton told SheridanHoops. “It’s all the little things. Anytime he talks, everybody listens because he’s one of the best to play.”
Speaking of the business aspect, Middleton is represented by Excel Sports, which also represents four other Bucks players and Kidd – an important factor with his restricted free agency looming this summer.
“He’s just showed me the little things that you never think about when you’re playing the game and how to see it, even for me as a shooter,” Middleton told SheridanHoops. “He taught me how to see things coming off screens and stuff like that.”
The man who usually sets those screens is Zaza Pachulia.
“It’s fun to play with him, especially for me as a big guy who likes to pass because he’s a great shooter,” Pachulia told SheridanHoops. “I think he’s one of the top shooters in the league that we have. That’s why we call him Khris ‘Money’ Middleton. Especially with the threes, he’s great coming off screens. He’s a smart player. It’s good having him as a teammate and I think it’s going to be even better once he gets this playoff experience moving forward. He’s only 23 years old. People don’t think that he’s that young, but he’s young. I think this kid can be an even better player next year.”
After setting many screens for Middleton, Pachulia jokingly said he wants a cut from his new deal.
“At least he should take me to a nice dinner a couple of times a year for all the screens I make for him, passes and assists on game winners,” Pachulia said with a laugh.
While Middleton will receive a lucrative offer from another team, multiple league sources tell SheridanHoops he isn’t going anywhere.
Another shooter who will receive lucrative offers this summer is Danny Green, who recently set the Spurs’ record for most 3-pointers in a season.
Green is in line to receive a contract starting along the lines of other shooters such as Kyle Korver and Jodie Meeks, who both earn roughly $6 million annually.
“I think he’s in the right situation (San Antonio),” one executive told SheridanHoops. “If he goes to another team, I don’t know how good he is. He can get $6 million, I wouldn’t have an issue with that.”
Considered one of the better defenders at the shooting guard position, Green was born in North Babylon, New York and attended high school at St. Mary’s in Manhasset.
When the local product was in town with the Spurs a month ago – sporting a “Made in New York” tattoo on his wrist and a Yankees hat in his locker – I asked Green if the Knicks could be an attractive free agent destination for players this summer.
“New York’s a great place, a great city,” Green told SheridanHoops. “A lot of people love coming and visiting here. You know Phil Jackson and Derek Fisher now are changing things around a little bit and I’m sure that they have more than enough cap space. They’re going to get some guys so it’ll be interesting. I think they’ll be able to get some good pieces in free agency during that time.”
Things didn’t go according to plan the last time New York had significant cap space in 2010. The Knicks were enamored with signing a marquee name, but LeBron James ultimately burned them in free agency and signed with the Miami Heat. Now, however, the thinking has since changed, according to general manager Steve Mills.
“We will not go after the biggest names out there,” Mills said. “We will go after the players that fit our style of play.”
Some players that fit the triangle offense include unrestricted free agents Greg Monroe and Wesley Matthews, whom I mentioned as possibilities in December and February.
Matthews tore his left Achilles tendon in early March after the Portland Trail Blazers acquired Arron Afflalo in a trade at the deadline.
Afflalo has a $7.5 million player option this summer and could decide to opt out of his current deal.
“If he plays well in the playoffs, he’ll opt out,” a source close to Afflalo told SheridanHoops.
Afflalo is recovering from a right shoulder strain and is expected to return sometime during the first round. However, the same source told SheridanHoops he believes Afflalo wants to play through the pain because he has waited to be on a winning team and wants to compete in the playoffs.
Although Afflalo was traded twice in the past year, he still holds value around the league amongst contenders while in the prime of his career at 29. Before landing in Portland, sources told SheridanHoops the Oklahoma City Thunder had serious interest in acquiring Afflalo.
A successful playoff run could be the difference between Afflalo getting an eight-figure annual salary or not should he choose to opt out.
A similar player who will have to pick up the slack for an injured teammate in the playoffs is Hawks swingman DeMarre Carroll. With Thabo Sefolosha out for the remainder of the season with a broken fibula, Carroll will have extra duty defending the opponent’s best wing player in the postseason.
After signing a two-year, $5 million deal with the Hawks in 2013, Carroll has been a steal while making the most of his opportunity as a full-time starter for the first time in his career. He started only 22 games in the previous four seasons with Memphis, Houston, Denver and Utah.
This season, Carroll averaged a career-high 12.6 points and shot an efficient 49 percent from the field and 40 percent from downtown.
“This sounds crazy, but this guy might get $8-9 million a season,” one executive told SheridanHoops. “That’s a high-end role player. Really, you try to get him at $7 million ideally. If somebody offers him $10 million, I don’t think Atlanta matches it.”
If Carroll has a good playoff run with the Hawks by locking up the opponent’s best wing player and nailing open 3-pointers, he will receive the higher end of that range.
The Hawks are a balanced team, which could allow Carroll to light it up on any given night and impress potential suitors on the league’s biggest stage.
One player whom Carroll and the Hawks may encounter in the Eastern Conference Finals is Tristan Thompson, a restricted free agent with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Thompson was the fourth overall pick of the 2011 draft and has proven to be a consistent double-double threat on a nightly basis.
In the previous two years as the full-time starter, Thompson averaged 11.7 points and 9.3 rebounds in 31.5 minutes. This season, Thompson is averaging 8.5 points and 8.1 rebounds per game in 26.9 minutes off the bench while shooting a career-high 55 percent from the field.
Thompson is looking for a huge payday after declining a four-year, $52 million extension offer, per Yahoo! Sports.
Thompson and LeBron James both share the same agent, Rich Paul of Klutch Sports.
With that in mind, don’t be surprised if Thompson lands a similarly hefty extension despite a reduced role this season. Remember, keeping James happy is priority one, two and three in Cleveland.
In addition, James and Kevin Love aren’t the closest of friends and their relationship has been under a microscope all season. Love has a $16.7 million player option for next season. If he opts in, Love would then become an unrestricted free agent in 2016.
With that in mind, Thompson would provide the Cavaliers with a long-term insurance policy at only 24 years old should Love ever decide to walk away.
Keep all that in mind, because in July, the underrated free agent bonanza of 2015 will begin.
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Michael Scotto is an NBA columnist for SheridanHoops.com. Follow him on Twitter: @MikeAScotto.