19. Tim Duncan, F-C, San Antonio (Unrestricted): At this time next season, Duncan will be doing one of two things: playing for the Spurs or fully ensconced in his next vocation of customizing muscle cars.
Any team outside of San Antonio making him an offer will be wasting its time. In fact, he is probably less likely to change teams than James. The bet here is that Duncan, 39, continues to play for the Spurs on a year-to-year basis until he decides he can no longer be effective – which should be around 2022 or so, judging by his current level.
20. Tyson Chandler, C, Dallas (Unrestricted): The last time he was a free agent was also with Dallas in 2011, when he turned down a one-year, $20 million deal for the security of a four-year, $56 million contract with the New York Knicks.
He turns 33 this summer and has lost a bit of lift and mobility at both ends of the floor but remains a plus rim protector and backstops a defense that would be a sieve without him. There will be interest on the open market, simply because there are not a lot of 7-footers who do what he does. But the Mavs likely will retain him, with $30 million over three years sounding about right.
21. Monta Ellis, G, Dallas (Player Option): He scores 20 points in his sleep, has missed just 10 games in six years and still is on the right side of 30, at least until October. Ellis also took a considerable pay cut in his last contract (three years, $25 million) and likely won’t this time around, which makes his decision to opt out of the final year at $8.7 million almost a certainty.
The Mavs will need him to take even more of the heavy lifting off Dirk Nowitzki’s hands next season, and they can turn Chandler’s pay cut into a pay raise for Ellis before scouring the market for a young point guard who runs the plays that the coach calls.
22. Khris Middleton, F, Milwaukee (Restricted): One of the league’s most improved players over the last two seasons and the best player on the Bucks, at least right now. Could be a max guy, as Chris Bernucca discussed in this podcast on Milwaukee radio station WTMJ.
He turns 24 this summer and still has a ways to go before he reaches his ceiling. He almost certainly will get an offer averaging eight figures. The Bucks almost certainly will allow a rival team to set the market. With Giannis Antetokounmpo improving and Jabari Parker returning, the question is whether they match. And as we stated in to intro, it makes no sense not to match.
23. Rajon Rondo, G, Dallas (Unrestricted): He is no longer Mozart or Mark Zuckerberg – an incandescent, creative talent whose social difficulties are overlooked. The discernible dropoff in his game since returning from an ACL injury, the frightening free-throw shooting, his inability to knock down jumpers in a space-the-floor league and his stubbornness bordering on stupidity has cost him tens of millions of dollars while assuring he will be wearing a new uniform next season. The question is, where? Both the Knicks and Lakers desperately need upgrades and have long histories of overpaying players, so a max deal is not entirely out of the question. But whichever teams signs him likely will be regretting it by Thanksgiving.
24. Danny Green, G, San Antonio (Unrestricted): He is never going to be a star but is a solid two-way shooting guard who averaged better than a block and steal per game this season while shooting 42 percent from distance. But Green also seems like one of those guys who will never be as good anywhere else as he is with San Antonio, simply because the system maximizes his strengths and hides his weaknesses.
With Manu Ginobili supposedly 50-50 on whether to call it quits, the Spurs have to have some interest in retaining him, perhaps at even double his current $4 million salary. But anything more than that would be a stretch. Remember, Green gets a lot of extra notice because he has played well for stretches for a team that’s always in the postseason. This is what is known as the Austin Croshere Effect.
25. Dwyane Wade, G, Miami (Player Option): He is an institution in Miami rivaling Dan Marino and Joe’s Stone Crabs, so there is zero chance of Wade ending up anywhere else.
He also has to opt out of a $16.1 million player option, and the only reason he would do that is to facilitate other deals Pat Riley may have percolating. There is no doubt he can still get it done on an All-Star level on the offensive end; he nearly pushed Miami into the playoffs by himself. But the defense has been slipping for some time, and he hasn’t played 70 games since the 2010-11 season, another reason why other teams will stay away.
26. Luol Deng, F, Miami (Player Option): He certainly could opt out of his $10 million salary for next season, and some team desperate for stability (but not stardom) at small forward such as Detroit could give him the big contract he has been looking for since leaving Chicago nearly two years ago.
But Deng is 30 with a lot of wear and tear, and if he stays put, he will be part of a starting lineup that includes Dragic, Wade, Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside.
If he bides his time, he could cash in big next summer when the cap jumps dramatically.
27. Roy Hibbert, C, Indiana (Player Option): To hit the open market, Hibbert would have to opt out of his final year at $15.5 million. It says here that would be a mistake that could cost him millions.
Hibbert’s plodding, deliberate style is a bad fit for the current space-and-pace NBA, and his frequent disappearing acts – inexplicable for a 7-footer – now have a history of more than a year, going back to the 2014 All-Star break. People like him as a rim protector, but his blocks (1.6) represented a five-year low, and his key stats (10.6 points, 7.1 rebounds, 44 percent FGs) were not much better than those of Tyler Zeller.
28. Wesley Mathews, G, Portland (Unrestricted): His value to the Blazers was illustrated by his absence in March and April. Forget the 3-pointers and hard-nosed play; he was the emotional leader of this group, which fell apart without him and now could be on the verge of a breakup. Matthews was in line for a deal averaging eight figures until he tore his Achilles tendon in early March, which will sideline him until around 2016 and assure him of a somewhat uneventful summer on the open market. And the injury becomes a bargaining chip for the Blazers, who may not have to go much higher than Matthews’ current $7.25 million salary to keep him. Don’t forget that Portland also has the Bird rights on deadline acquisition Arron Afflalo, who figures to opt out.
29. Jeff Green, F, Memphis (Player Option): He can opt out this summer and test the market or stay in Memphis for another year at the same $9.2 million he made this season and hit the market next summer, when more teams will be able to bid for him and he may get a salary bump. His underwhelming series against Golden State did not help his market value.
Keep in mind that if the occasionally frugal Grizzlies retain Gasol, Green remains the third option in their offense, which is the best fit for him but impacts what he can expect as a salary. The further the Grizzlies go in the playoffs, the more his value rises. A very interesting “will he or won’t he” guy when it comes to opting in or opting out.
30. Lou Williams, G, Toronto (Unrestricted): Boy, that Sixth Man Award changes the picture a little, doesn’t it?
Williams is coming off a mid-level deal and will want more in this contract, because (a) he has shown that the ACL tear is ancient history and (b) at 28 years old (yes, just 28; he was born the same day as Game 7 of the 1986 World Series), this will be his last chance at a contract that doesn’t include the words exception or minimum.
Toronto has cap room but also has decisions on Jonas Valanciunas and Amir Johnson.
31. Robin Lopez, C, Portland (Unrestricted): He is never mentioned when discussing the game’s best centers, but he has averaged 10.5 points, 7.8 rebounds and 1.6 blocks in two seasons in the City of Roses, which is not bad for a fifth option on a three-happy team with two alpha dogs.
His best bargaining chips are being a 7-footer, and how Portland would have to scramble for a rim protector if he left (although the Blazers do hold a team option on Chris Kaman for $5 million.)You could see playoff teams such as Atlanta, Dallas or even his previous home of New Orleans being interested if their summers go sideways.
32. Thaddeus Young, F, Brooklyn (Player Option): He is slotted to make $9.97 million next season and could get more if he opts out, either from the Nets or another team looking for a combo forward and glue guy.
Young is similar to Jeff Green in that he is probably most effective as a third offensive option. He also gets a lot of garbage points due to his craftiness around the rim and is improving as a 3-point shooter, although not quite at the level many teams are looking for. He is still only 26 and an absolute sweetheart of a teammate.
33. Jamal Crawford, G, LA Clippers (Team Option): Doc Rivers the GM could save $4 million by declining Crawford’s option, because only $1.5 million of his $5.67 million for next season is guaranteed.
But we can’t imagine one of our site’s BFFs ever getting to the open market, not when you consider that Crawford remains a threat to win the Sixth Man Award every season – even at 35 years old – and Doc Rivers the coach won’t have a bench if he turns him loose. He is starting to break down a little, but should be able to snag another multi-year deal amid next summer’s frenzy.
34. Josh Smith, F, Houston Rockets (Unrestricted): After being made the scapegoat – unfairly or not – in both Atlanta and Detroit, you get the sense that he has found some peace in Houston alongside former AAU teammate Dwight Howard, even if their series against Golden State did not exactly go as planned.
Don’t forget that the Pistons are paying him $13.5 million in each of the next two seasons, which makes taking less money for a smaller role with a contender much more palatable. If he stays with the Rockets, his salary should be directly commensurate with Houston’s playoff success this postseason. If logic flies out the window the way it did when he signed with Detroit, anything is possible.
35. David West, F, Indiana Pacers (Player Option): It’s hard to envision him opting out of the $12.6 million he is due next season, given his age (35 in August) and his dropoff in scoring over the last two years.
His toughness is always a welcome commodity, but his midrange game is a funky fit in today’s NBA. One factor could be the direction Indiana takes going forward and whether West sees title contention in his future. Remember, he correctly picked the Pacers over the Celtics for that same reason four years ago.
CONTINUE READING: FREE AGENTS 36-50