19. Tim Duncan, F-C, San Antonio (Unrestricted): At this time next season, Duncan will be doing one of two things: playing for the Spurs or fully ensconced in his next vocation of customizing muscle cars. He told me in January that he has not yet purchased his lead sled. Any team outside of San Antonio making him an offer will be wasting its time. In fact, he is probably less likely to change teams than James. The bet here is that Duncan, 39, continues to play for the Spurs on a year-to-year basis until he decides he can no longer be effective – which should be around 2022 or so, judging by his current level.
20. Dwyane Wade, G, Miami (Unrestricted): He is an institution in Miami rivaling Dan Marino and Joe’s Stone Crabs, so there is zero chance, IMHO, of Wade ending up anywhere else. He has a $16.1 million player option, and he would like to receive a max deal. There were reports in mid-June that the Heat wanted him to sign for $10 million per season, which is a non-starter for Wade after he sacrificed tens of millions of dollars in past seasons to facilitate the building of Pat Riley’s Superteam. Wade and the Heat have planned a sitdown to clear the air, and it would be a shocker if Riley — one of the most loyal people in the entire NBA — lets him walk. For dreamers in Cleveland, there is no chance he could land with the Cavs because it would trigger a hard cap of $85 million and would prevent them from retaining Love, Thompson and/or Dellavedova. There is no doubt Wade can still get it done on an All-Star level on the offensive end; he nearly pushed Miami into the playoffs by himself. But the defense has been slipping for some time, and he hasn’t played 70 games since the 2010-11 season.
21. Tyson Chandler, C, Dallas (Unrestricted): The last time he was a free agent was also with Dallas in 2011, when he turned down a one-year, $20 million deal for the security of a four-year, $56 million contract with the New York Knicks. He turns 33 this summer and has lost a bit of lift and mobility at both ends of the floor but remains a plus rim protector and backstops a defense that would be a sieve without him. There will be interest on the open market, simply because there are not a lot of 7-footers who do what he does. But the Mavs likely will retain him, with $30 million over three years sounding about right.
22. Khris Middleton, F, Milwaukee (Restricted): One of the league’s most improved players over the last two seasons and the best player on the Bucks, at least right now. Could be a max guy, as Chris Bernucca discussed in this podcast on Milwaukee radio station WTMJ. He turns 24 this summer and still has a ways to go before he reaches his ceiling. He almost certainly will get an offer averaging eight figures. The Bucks almost certainly will allow a rival team to set the market. With Giannis Antetokounmpo improving and Jabari Parker returning, the question is whether they match. And as we stated in the intro, it makes no sense not to match. And Milwaukee will have cap room left over because they dealt Ilyasova to the Pistons.
23. Al Jefferson, C, Charlotte (Player Option): Michael Jordan is a billionaire now, according to Forbes, and if you are Jefferson, you opt out of your deal and get a new one for five years at max money. If you know your boss can afford it, and if you know your boss has no choice … this is what you do. Right? Well, Jefferson surprised many in late June by exercising his $13.5 million player option — no doubt with an eye toward cashing in big time next summer when the cap jumps. He said he plans to lose 25 pounds this offseason, and when November arrives he’ll have Nicolas Batum as a running mate, along with Frank Kaminsky at the 4. Jordan did a nice job at the end of June.
24. Rajon Rondo, G, Dallas (Unrestricted): He is no longer Mozart or Mark Zuckerberg – an incandescent, creative talent whose social difficulties are overlooked. The discernible dropoff in his game since returning from an ACL injury, the frightening free-throw shooting, his inability to knock down jumpers in a space-the-floor league and his stubbornness bordering on stupidity has cost him tens of millions of dollars while assuring he will be wearing a new uniform next season. The question is, where? Whichever team signs him likely will be regretting it by Thanksgiving.
25. Danny Green, G, San Antonio (Unrestricted): He is never going to be a star but is a solid two-way shooting guard who averaged better than a block and steal per game this season while shooting 42 percent from distance. But Green also seems like one of those guys who will never be as good anywhere else as he is with San Antonio, simply because the system maximizes his strengths and hides his weaknesses. With Manu Ginobili supposedly 50-50 on whether to call it quits, the Spurs have to have some interest in retaining him, perhaps at even double his current $4 million salary. But anything more than that would be a stretch. Remember, Green gets a lot of extra notice because he has played well for stretches for a team that’s always in the postseason.
26. Luol Deng, F, Miami (Player Option-June 29): He certainly could have opted out of his $10 million salary for next season, and some team desperate for stability (but not stardom) at small forward such as Detroit could give him the big contract he has been looking for since leaving Chicago nearly two years ago. But Deng is 30 with a lot of wear and tear, stayed put and will be part of a starting lineup that should include Dragic, Wade, Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside. He could cash in big next summer when the cap jumps dramatically.
27. Roy Hibbert, C, Indiana (Player Option-June 29): To hit the open market, Hibbert would have to opt out of his final year at $15.5 million. It says here that would be a mistake that could cost him millions. (UPDATE: Hibbert opted in, and he Pacers are expected to try to trade him). Hibbert’s plodding, deliberate style is a bad fit for the current space-and-pace NBA, and his frequent disappearing acts – inexplicable for a 7-footer – now have a history of more than a year, going back to the 2014 All-Star break. People like him as a rim protector, but his blocks (1.6) represented a five-year low, and his key stats (10.6 points, 7.1 rebounds, 44 percent FGs) were not much better than those of Tyler Zeller.
28. Wesley Mathews, G, Portland (Unrestricted): His value to the Blazers was illustrated by his absence in March and April. Forget the 3-pointers and hard-nosed play; he was the emotional leader of this group, which fell apart without him and now could be on the verge of a breakup. Matthews was in line for a deal averaging eight figures until he tore his Achilles tendon in early March, which will sideline him until around 2016 and assure him of a somewhat uneventful summer on the open market. And the injury becomes a bargaining chip for the Blazers, who may not have to go much higher than Matthews’ current $7.25 million salary to keep him. Don’t forget that Portland also has the Bird rights on deadline acquisition Arron Afflalo .
29. Jeff Green, F, Memphis (Player Option): He decided against opting out and will make the same $9.2 million he made this season and hit the market next summer, when more teams will be able to bid for him and he may get a salary bump. His underwhelming series against Golden State did not help his market value. Keep in mind that if the occasionally frugal Grizzlies retain Gasol, Green remains the third option in their offense, which is the best fit for him but impacts what he can expect as a salary one year from now.
30. Lou Williams, G, Toronto (Unrestricted): Boy, that Sixth Man Award changes the picture a little, doesn’t it? Williams is coming off a mid-level deal and will want more in this contract, because (a) he has shown that the ACL tear is ancient history and (b) at 28 years old (yes, just 28; he was born the same day as Game 7 of the 1986 World Series), this will be his last chance at a contract that doesn’t include the words exception or minimum. Toronto has cap room but also has decisions on Jonas Valanciunas and Amir Johnson. Upgrading the power forward spot is job No. 1, but keeping Williams at a reasonable number is a close No. 2.
31. Robin Lopez, C, Portland (Unrestricted): He is never mentioned when discussing the game’s best centers, but he has averaged 10.5 points, 7.8 rebounds and 1.6 blocks in two seasons in the City of Roses, which is not bad for a fifth option on a three-happy team with two alpha dogs. His best bargaining chips are being a 7-footer, and how Portland would have to scramble for a rim protector if he left (although the Blazers do hold a team option on Chris Kaman for $5 million.) You could see playoff teams such as Atlanta, Dallas or even his previous home of New Orleans being interested if their summers go sideways.
32. Thaddeus Young, F, Brooklyn (Unrestricted): He was slotted to make $9.97 million next season and opted out, and he could land a pay raise either from the Nets or another team looking for a combo forward and glue guy. Young is similar to Jeff Green in that he is probably most effective as a third offensive option. He also gets a lot of garbage points due to his craftiness around the rim and is improving as a 3-point shooter, although not quite at the level many teams are looking for. He is still only 26 and an absolute sweetheart of a teammate.
33. Jamal Crawford, G, LA Clippers (Team Option): Doc Rivers the GM could save $4 million by declining Crawford’s option, because only $1.5 million of his $5.67 million for next season is guaranteed. But we can’t imagine one of our site’s BFFs ever getting to the open market, not when you consider that Crawford remains a threat to win the Sixth Man Award every season – even at 35 years old – and Doc Rivers the coach won’t have a bench if he turns him loose. He is starting to break down a little, but should be able to snag another multi-year deal amid next summer’s frenzy.
34. Josh Smith, F, Houston Rockets (Unrestricted): After being made the scapegoat – unfairly or not – in both Atlanta and Detroit, you get the sense that he has found some peace in Houston alongside former AAU teammate Dwight Howard, even if their series against Golden State did not exactly go as planned. Don’t forget that the Pistons are paying him $13.5 million in each of the next two seasons, which makes taking less money for a smaller role with a contender much more palatable. If he stays with the Rockets, his salary should be directly commensurate with Houston’s playoff success this postseason. If logic flies out the window the way it did when he signed with Detroit, anything is possible.
35. David West, F, Indiana Pacers (Unrestricted): He opted out of the $12.6 million he is due next season, which was a risky move given his age (35 in August) and his dropoff in scoring over the last two years. His toughness is always a welcome commodity, but his midrange game is a funky fit in today’s NBA. One factor could be the direction Indiana takes going forward and whether West sees title contention in his future. Remember, he correctly picked the Pacers over the Celtics for that same reason four years ago.
CONTINUE READING: FREE AGENTS 36-50