Today is the best day of the NBA offseason. Say what you want about the draft, which is a spectacle unto itself. But the start of free agency operates on a whole different level. It is not a televised event, but rather a phenomenon that ebbs and flows by the hour, best covered and followed on Twitter.
About 99 out of every 100 tweets are relatively worthless. “Team X has interest in Player Y, sources tell Reporter Z.” Yeah, you will see a lot of those.
Every team has interest in good players. That is merely stating the obvious.
But if someone comes out with a Tweet that says “so and so has made his decision and is headed to … ” — then you have a story that could change the NBA landscape.
Think back to exactly one year ago. Did anyone foresee LeBron James returning to Cleveland? OK, there were very few of us. And even when the news of LeBron’s return to the Cavs broke, did the majority of people believe it? As the journalist who broke the story, I can tell you the answer: “No.”
A little tale from last summer:
The day I broke the news of LeBron’s return to Cleveland, I was invited to appear on “Olbermann”at a studio in Times Square. On the ride into New York City, I was listening to ESPN Radio and heard Brian Windhorst, a friend of mine, summoning his best Stephen A. Smith and screaming from the car speaker: “The only person who knows is LeBron. And if there is a second person, maybe it is his wife. To say anything otherwise is reckless. RECKLESS!!”
So I got to the studio and was ready to go on air when a producer came into the green room and informed me there was a problem. What I was reporting was at odds with what ESPN was reporting, and the big shots in Bristol did not want me going on the air. Instead, Windhorst and Broussard went on and told the nation that LeBron was still in the process of deciding.
The next day, when Lee Jenkins of SI.com ghostwrote LeBron’s announcement, ESPN’s experts were in the midst of discussing how Dan Gilbert’s infamous 2010 open letter was a potential dealbreaker. Suddenly, the host broke in with breaking news. LeBron was indeed returning to Cleveland. ESPN’s basketball panelists all simultaneously took out their cell phones — on air — scanned the Jenkins piece, and had confirmation of the news that had been reported by SheridanHoops two days earlier.
LeBron James is returning to the Cleveland Cavaliers, a source tells http://t.co/Cc9XrPZuuu. @KingJames #LeBronToClev http://t.co/yaNgQDrcff
— Chris Sheridan (@sheridanhoops) July 9, 2014
The fact of the matter was this: On the night when Windhorst was screaming “RECKLESS!!” from the radio, the circle of knowledge was much wider than he or anyone else at ESPN knew. At least two dozen people were fully aware of what the real deal was, including Jenkins. (And let the record show that of all my former colleagues at ESPN, Windhorst was the only one to give me a congratulatory phone call, calling it a “double platinum scoop.”).
Why rehash this?
Because as we go through the next week and a half, there will be people who are clueless who will sell themselves as all-knowing. There will be people who know the real deal who will keep their secrets to themselves. There will be information and misinformation, and it will be up to the discerning reader to choose who to believe.
Will this site break the biggest story? Who knows.
The only thing I can promise is this: If we say something definitively, believe it. I have always been about accuracy and integrity, and that will never cease.
With that being said, it is time for a new set of rankings that differ from yesterday’s. Dwyane Wade has decided not to opt in to his $16.1 million contract, and that could be a game-changer — or not. I fully expect him to end up re-signing with the Heat, because I know Pat Riley, who is both loyal and not a fool. I expect him to do the right thing and give D-Wade back some of the money he sacrificed in order to facilitate the original LeBron signing along with last summer’s Chris Bosh signing.
We have been running with Marc Gasol as the No. 1 free agent in each edition of these rankings since winter, but it now appears such a certainty that Gasol will return to Memphis, he has been bumped down a spot. Does that mean it is a sure thing he returns to the Grizzlies? Absolutely not. If the San Antonio Spurs aren’t able to get LaMarcus Aldridge, they could still be a landing spot for the younger Gasol.
Is Kevin Love a lock to return to Cleveland? No. But my sources tell me it is 60-40 or 65-35 that Love remains with the East’s new superteam, the Cavs.
I will keep updating you with real news as I receive it, and I will give credit where it is due when others break big stories. That is the way sports journalism should be. Call me a dinosaur if you like, but I’ll keep operating the right way.
So with that history lesson out of the way, let’s turn to this summer’s free agent class.
A few things to keep in mind:
_ With the new economics in the NBA as a result of the new TV deal, this is going to be one interesting summer. Short deals — two years with a one-year opt out — will be in vogue.
_ When we are talking about max deals, the math — and the money — gets quite interesting. The summer of 2016 will be bedlam as the money from the new nine-year, $24 billion TV deal kicks in. And because the Players Association refused to adopt the NBA’s proposal of “smoothing” in the revenue, the salary cap will jump an astronomical 32 percent to approximately $90 million with a projected tax line of $108 million.
_ Every team will have significant potential cap room in the summer of 2016. That means there’s almost no sense in taking a tough negotiating stance with a restricted free agent and forcing him to sign his qualifying offer, because that will only make him more expensive as an unrestricted free agent next summer.
_Don’t be surprised if players such as DeMarre Carroll, Tobias Harris or even Draymond Green or Khris Middleton receive max contracts, because those deals will be downright bargains compared to the size of max contracts a year from now. And teams that may have been apprehensive about exceeding the luxury tax to sign a player this summer may bite the bullet and pay the tax because the cap increase next summer almost ensures that they will not be a tax team in 2016, avoiding the higher repeater penalties.
_In assembling these rankings, we are factoring in the relative interest in each player, his willingness to change teams, whether he is unrestricted or restricted, skill, age and any other mitigating factors. Got that, Rajon?
_Removed from this list because they opted in or had their team options picked up: Al Jefferson (Hornets), Luol Deng (Heat), Roy Hibbert (Pacers), Jeff Green (Grizzlies), Eric Gordon (Pelicans), Timofey Mozgov (Cavaliers).
1. LaMarcus Aldridge, F, Portland (Unrestricted): Less than a year ago, Aldridge said he wanted to be “the best Blazer ever,” which could only be done by staying in the Pacific Northwest. But he also turned down a three-year, $55 million extension. Most assumed that was because he wanted the more lucrative five-year deal this summer — and Aldridge said as much. This will be Aldridge’s third contract and likely his last chance to truly explore free agency. The allure of playing for Dallas or San Antonio in his home state is strong. The Lakers will be in the mix. And the Blazers’ first-round exit from the playoffs doesn’t help. League executives consider him more likely to leave than to stay. He has emerged as the cream of the crop.
2. Marc Gasol, C, Memphis (Unrestricted): This isn’t his first free agent rodeo. Remember, the Rockets signed him to a four-year, $55 million offer sheet in the post-lockout frenzy of 2011, which the Grizzlies matched. But this is his last shot at a monster contract, and no team can offer Gasol what the Grizzlies can. Sorry, Knicks fans, but sources tell me the difference between what Gasol can make by staying in Tennessee, compared to what he would lose in New York through higher income taxes and lower annual raises, takes them out of the equation. There is also the overlooked factor that Gasol has lived in Memphis since high school, when his brother was the Grizzlies’ alpha dog. So he’s probably not going anywhere, although the Spurs likely will kick the tires. The Lakers are not an option, the LA Times reports.
3. Kevin Love, F, Cleveland (Unrestricted): The biggest mystery guy on this list. He has become a third wheel with the Cavaliers, and his first career playoff trip ended with a serious shoulder injury that likely will keep him out of action until training camp. He has opted out of his contract, so now what? You could argue this one of several ways. Does a return to Southern California where he played college ball seem more appealing? How about Boston, where he can accelerate the rebuilding plan? Or what about Portland, in his home state of Oregon? In the end, maybe the Cavs would have been better off keeping Andrew Wiggins. One idea being floated is Love signing a two-year deal with Cleveland with an opt-out, then hitting free agency again next summer when the cap jumps. He was due to make $16.7 million, but now can get a salary of $18.9 million for next season. As I wrote above, it is 60-40 to 65-35 that he stays, according to my sources.
4. DeAndre Jordan, C, LA Clippers (Unrestricted): Max guy. Not many players can get you 20 rebounds on a nightly basis. Remember when Dwight Howard used to do that? A valid argument can be made that Jordan should have been both an All-Star and the Defensive Player of the Year this season. His horrifying free-throw shooting is a minor tradeoff for his paint presence on both ends and the fact that he is the NBA’s current iron man, having not missed a game since the league returned from its last lockout. It is safe to say that Steve Ballmer can afford to keep him on a five-year max deal, and I expect that to come his way. But Jordan is planning visits with the Lakers, Knicks, Mavericks and, of course, the Clippers. Because he is in such high demand from so many teams, he vaults ahead of Kawhi Leonard, who was No. 4 in our previous rankings.
5. Kawhi Leonard, F, San Antonio (Restricted): It doesn’t matter whether the Spurs are proactive and don’t allow their future cornerstone to get to the market, or reactive and allow another team the formality of making an offer. Leonard will become the first Spurs player to receive a true max deal – not an eight-figure average, like Tony Parker; not something slightly below the max, like Tim Duncan – since Duncan’s second contract in 2001. Think of all the poorly run teams that have given max deals to undeserving players in that span. The Spurs have not handed out one and have four championships to show for it. And the beauty of Leonard’s deal is that it will be below market value once the new TV money explodes the cap. First, though, the Spurs will figure out if Gasol or Aldridge is obtainable. If so, expect Tiago Splitter to be traded.
6. Jimmy Butler, G, Chicago (Restricted): No one – not Leonard, not Brook Lopez, not Draymond Green, not Enes Kanter – has been on a more sustained or successful salary drive than Butler, who turned down $40 million over four years in October. Since then, he has become Chicago’s leading scorer, earned his first All-Star appearance and won Most Improved Player. With Derrick Rose returning to form at times in the playoffs, it was easy to forget that Butler and Pau Gasol did the heavy lifting for much of the season. And like the Spurs with Leonard, the Bulls will have one of the game’s top shooting guards locked up for below market value once the TV money kicks in. He reportedly was signed to a max qualifying offer, which means a rival team must sign him to at least a three-year deal.
7. Greg Monroe, F, Detroit (Unrestricted): Do the Pistons consider him a max player? They didn’t a year ago, which is why Monroe and his agent, David Falk, accepted the qualifying offer and decided to see what comes their way this summer. This is the guy I can see the Knicks making the hardest push for, especially since chose Kristaps Porzingis in the draft. DeAndre Jordan remains an X-factor (would that be a Phil Jackson coup, or what?). But again, the actual dollar difference (when accounting for local taxes) between taking a max deal from a team not in California or New York is beyond substantial. For now, Monroe appears to be the Knicks’ No. 1 target, as colleague Mike Scotto reported a few months ago. The Pistons’ acquisition of Ersan Ilyasova showed that Van Gundy wants to move to a stretch-4. Monroe has meetings planned with the Knicks, Bucks, Lakers and Trail Blazers.
8. Goran Dragic, G, Miami (Unrestricted): He isn’t going anywhere. His agent, Bill Duffy, made quite the power play in getting him dealt to Miami, which removed the Knicks and Lakers from the equation in terms of potential destinations. He has already opted out of his player option, and we should expect the Heat to make him a max offer, or something close to it, and that will be that. There will be parties in Slovenia and South Beach, and the Heat will have their best point guard since … Tim Hardaway Sr.? The only question is timing, and that will be determined by what happens with Dwayne Wade. Oh, and if Wade leaves? That would be a game-changer that could impact this particular guy.
9. Brook Lopez, C, Brooklyn (Unrestricted): He will get a max deal because he spent the last two months of the season showing a newfound desire to rebound and defend alongside his polished offensive game. That might have scared off Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov, who no longer has the drunken-sailor approach he brought to the NBA when he arrived a half-decade ago, but the Nets’ trade of Mason Plumlee to Portland on draft night changed the equation. Lopez seems to be an ideal fit for the Lakers, with the added bonus of being a California native. But there will always be questions about his long-term health due to his history of foot injuries. That’s why he is more likely to take a long deal rather than a one-year deal that would put him back in free agency next summer. Folks around the Nets believe he will be back.
10. Draymond Green, F, Golden State (Restricted): There is no doubt that Green’s salary is going to jump from six figures ($920,000) to eight figures. The Warriors already are in tax territory next season, when Klay Thompson’s extension kicks in. They have indicated that they are willing to take the one-year hit in order to keep Green, whose improved offense and ability to defend multiple positions is invaluable. GM Bob Myers would love to move David Lee and the $15.5 million on the final year of his contract, which is not impossible given that it is an expiring deal (would the Raptors take him?). With no other big names to re-sign, the Warriors can let another team set the market for Green, even if that is a max offer. If that happens, (a) Golden State will become the third team in NBA history with five eight-figure players and (b) Stephen Curry will be their fifth-highest paid player.
11. LeBron James, F, Cleveland (Unrestricted): Relax, Cavs fans. He isn’t going anywhere, which is why he is randomly slotted here. The only way James doesn’t finish his career in his home state is if there is some sort of irreparable disconnect between him and owner Dan Gilbert that drives The King away. And if James went elsewhere, he would need a security force that would make President Obama blush. Depending on how you look at it, he could be first on this list or not even on it because his free agency is a formality to earn him an extra half-million dollars next season – and keep pressure on management to improve the roster. So we arbitrarily placed him here. What is interesting is that he reportedly will not recruit Love to stay.
12. Dwyane Wade, G, Miami (Unrestricted): He is an institution in Miami rivaling Dan Marino and Joe’s Stone Crabs, so there is zero chance, IMHO, of Wade ending up anywhere else for reasons I addressed above. There were reports in mid-June that the Heat wanted him to sign for $10 million per season, which is a non-starter for Wade after he sacrificed tens of millions of dollars in past seasons to facilitate the building of Pat Riley’s Superteam. It would be a shocker if Riley — one of the most loyal people in the entire NBA — lets him walk. For dreamers in Cleveland, there is no chance he could land with the Cavs because it would trigger a hard cap of $85 million and would prevent them from retaining Love and Tristan Thompson. There is no doubt Wade can still get it done on an All-Star level on the offensive end; he nearly pushed Miami into the playoffs by himself. But the defense has been slipping for some time, and he hasn’t played 70 games since the 2010-11 season.
13. Paul Millsap, F, Atlanta (Unrestricted): One of the best signings of the last two years, as the Hawks paid less than $10 million annually for a tough, team-oriented player who has back-to-back All-Star appearances and continues to expand his game beyond the arc to remain relevant in a shooter’s league. At 30 years old, he will be looking for a max deal. But because Millsap is finishing up a two-year contract, he is an “Early Bird” free agent and the Hawks can only offer him four years starting at a max of $16.675 million. Other teams can offer four years with a starting salary of $18.6 million. This is an extremely complicated equation, and Millsap’s options are many. If he takes a one-year deal, the Hawks will have full Bird rights on him next summer and could then give him a five-year deal worth $160 million.
14. Monta Ellis, G, Dallas (Unrestricted): He led Dallas in scoring last season, can give you 20 points in his sleep, has missed just 10 games in six years and still is on the right side of 30, at least until October. Ellis also took a considerable pay cut in his last contract (three years, $25 million) but won’t this time around, which made his decision to opt out of the final year at $8.7 million a certainty. The Mavs plan to move on without him, feeling his proclivity to hoist outside shots and moodiness had a negative impact on both Chandler Parsons and Dirk Nowitzki. Shooting guards are not easy to find, and Ellis should find no shortage of suitors on the open market.
15. Reggie Jackson, G, Detroit (Restricted): It’s hard to envision GM Stan Van Gundy allowing both Monroe and Jackson to get away in free agency. In fact, he recently said that re-signing Jackson is the team’s offseason priority. Keep in mind that Jackson forced his way out of Oklahoma City because he wanted to start and turned down a $48 million extension offer. The guess here is that Van Gundy will allow the market to set Jackson’s value before deciding to match. What he will not do is play hardball as he did with Monroe, because that would make Jackson an unrestricted free agent in 2016, when the bags of TV money show up. Remember that the Pistons still have Brandon Jennings, who is coming off a torn Achilles tendon.
16. Enes Kanter, F-C, Oklahoma City (Restricted): Probably the best pickup of the trade deadline, even though his awful defense in the pick-and-roll and at the rim – coupled with Serge Ibaka’s absence – made the Thunder look like an ABA team down the stretch. But Kanter’s offense is a welcome addition for a team that normally uses its centers as screeners and goons, and his effectiveness – if not his production – should be even better when lining up alongside Ibaka and Kevin Durant, whose free agency clock is ticking loudly. Now all GM Sam Presti has to do is convince skinflint owner Clay Bennett to look beneath the sofa cushions for the eight figures annually that it will take to keep Kanter, either with an offer right out of the gate or by matching another team’s pitch. That means luxury tax territory for one season until the cap jumps next summer. How OKC deals with Kanter is a direct referendum on Bennett.
17. DeMarre Carroll, F, Atlanta (Unrestricted): Along with Green and Middleton, Carroll figures to receive one of the league’s biggest pay raises this offseason from his $2.44 million salary. Scotto has him in his five free agent sleepers column, but these playoffs showcased Carroll’s skills to a much wider audience. He has become one of the best “3-and-D” guys in the league, and his numbers (career highs of 12.6 points, .487 FGs and .395 threes) were certainly enhanced by playing alongside four All-Stars in a system that took advantage of his willingness to screen and cut rather than just stationing him in a corner. Millsap remains Atlanta’s priority, but with the Hawks under the cap this season and new ownership in place, it’s hard to imagine him heading elsewhere. Then again, strange things happen every summer.
18. Tobias Harris, F, Orlando (Restricted): Just 22, Harris is going to get max money; you can bet your bottom dollar on that. But here’s two questions: Does he deserve it? Everything he has accomplished has been with awful teams. And will the Magic match? The educated guess here used to be yes, because that is what Rob Hennigan has told Magic season-ticket holders. But the proof will come when the 72-hour matching window begins to tick away, and the Magic have to decide if there may be too much collateral damage from having Harris making significantly more money than teammate Nikola Vucevic, whose $12.8 million salary in 2018-19 may make him the NBA’s most underpaid player. (That title is currently held by MVP Stephen Curry, under contract for $11.4 million next season and $12.1 million the following season.) Keep an eye on New Orleans — and the Knicks if they whiff on getting a big man.
CONTINUE READING: Nos. 19-35 | Nos 36-50