19. Brandon Knight, G, Phoenix (Restricted): He was Jimmy Butler with training wheels, unable to reach accord on an extension with Milwaukee in October, elevating his game to borderline All-Star level and setting himself up for a huge payday as a restricted free agent this summer. Then Bucks management – likely influenced by ownership’s struggles in getting taxpayers to pick up more of the tab for a new arena – got out from under Knight’s impending payday and dealt him to Phoenix, where his season dovetailed with an injury. But Knight is just 23 and is about as close to a max salary point guard as you will find out there this summer. In today’s NBA, he is a much better option than Rajon Rondo. And given that the Suns traded away so much to get him, he is a lock to get major money in Phoenix– likely $70 million over 5 years.
20. Tim Duncan, F-C, San Antonio (Unrestricted): At this time next season, Duncan will be doing one of two things: playing for the Spurs or fully ensconced in his next vocation of customizing muscle cars. He told me in January that he has not yet purchased his lead sled. Any team outside of San Antonio making him an offer will be wasting its time. In fact, he is probably less likely to change teams than James. The bet here is that Duncan, 39, continues to play for the Spurs on a year-to-year basis until he decides he can no longer be effective – which should be around 2022 or so, judging by his current level. His first order of business this July will be joining Gregg Popovich is the recruitment of Aldridge.
21. Tyson Chandler, C, Dallas (Unrestricted): The last time he was a free agent was also with Dallas in 2011, when he turned down a one-year, $20 million deal for the security of a four-year, $56 million contract with the New York Knicks. He turns 33 this summer and has lost a bit of lift and mobility at both ends of the floor but remains a plus rim protector and backstops a defense that would be a sieve without him. There will be interest on the open market, simply because there are not a lot of 7-footers who do what he does. The Mavs are in the hunt for DeAndre Jordan, but if they swing and miss, they would bring back Chandler – if he hasn’t latched on elsewhere.
22. Khris Middleton, F, Milwaukee (Restricted): One of the league’s most improved players over the last two seasons and the best player on the Bucks, at least right now. Could be a max guy, as Chris Bernucca discussed in this podcast on Milwaukee radio station WTMJ. He turns 24 this summer and still has a ways to go before he reaches his ceiling. He almost certainly will get an offer averaging eight figures. The Bucks probably will allow a rival team to set the market. With Giannis Antetokounmpo improving and Jabari Parker returning, the question is whether they match. And as we stated in the intro, it makes no sense not to match. And Milwaukee will have cap room left over because they dealt Ersan Ilyasova to the Pistons.
23. Rajon Rondo, G, Dallas (Unrestricted): He is no longer Mozart or Mark Zuckerberg – an incandescent, creative talent whose social difficulties are overlooked. The discernible dropoff in his game since returning from an ACL injury, the frightening free-throw shooting, his inability to knock down jumpers in a space-the-floor league and his stubbornness bordering on stupidity has cost him tens of millions of dollars while assuring he will be wearing a new uniform next season. The question is, where? Whichever team signs him likely will be regretting it by Thanksgiving.
24. Danny Green, G, San Antonio (Unrestricted): He is never going to be a star but is a solid two-way shooting guard who averaged better than a block and steal per game this season while shooting 42 percent from distance. But Green also seems like one of those guys who will never be as good anywhere else as he is with San Antonio, simply because the system maximizes his strengths and hides his weaknesses. With Manu Ginobili supposedly 50-50 on whether to call it quits, the Spurs have to have some interest in retaining him, perhaps at even double his current $4 million salary. But anything more than that would be a stretch. Remember, Green gets a lot of extra notice because he has played well for stretches for a team that’s always in the postseason.
25. Wesley Mathews, G, Portland (Unrestricted): His value to the Blazers was illustrated by his absence in March and April. Forget the 3-pointers and hard-nosed play; he was the emotional leader of this group, which fell apart without him and now could be on the verge of a breakup. Matthews was in line for a deal averaging eight figures until he tore his Achilles tendon in early March, which will sideline him until around 2016 and assure him of a somewhat uneventful summer on the open market. And the injury becomes a bargaining chip for the Blazers, who may not have to go much higher than Matthews’ current $7.25 million salary to keep him. Don’t forget that Portland also has the Bird rights on deadline acquisition Arron Afflalo.
26. Lou Williams, G, Toronto (Unrestricted): Boy, that Sixth Man Award changes the picture a little, doesn’t it? Williams is coming off a mid-level deal and will want more in this contract, because (a) he has shown that the ACL tear is ancient history and (b) at 28 years old (yes, just 28; he was born the same day as Game 7 of the 1986 World Series), this will be his last chance at a contract that doesn’t include the words exception or minimum. Toronto has cap room but also has decisions on Jonas Valanciunas and Amir Johnson. Upgrading the power forward spot is job No. 1, but keeping Williams at a reasonable number is a close No. 2, especially with Greivis Vasquez dealt to Milwaukee.
27. Robin Lopez, C, Portland (Unrestricted): He is never mentioned when discussing the game’s best centers, but he has averaged 10.5 points, 7.8 rebounds and 1.6 blocks in two seasons in the City of Roses, which is not bad for a fifth option on a three-happy team with two alpha dogs. Is Portland planning on letting him walk? GM Neil Olshey dealt his first-round pick to land Mason Plumlee, who is on his rookie deal. You could see playoff teams such as Atlanta, Dallas or even his previous home of New Orleans being interested if their summers go sideways.
28. Thaddeus Young, F, Brooklyn (Unrestricted): He was slotted to make $9.97 million next season and opted out, and he could land a pay raise either from the Nets or another team looking for a combo forward and glue guy. Young is similar to Jeff Green in that he is probably most effective as a third offensive option. He also gets a lot of garbage points due to his craftiness around the rim and is improving as a 3-point shooter, although not quite at the level many teams are looking for. He is still only 26 and an absolute sweetheart of a teammate. GM Billy King says he is going nowhere.
29. Jamal Crawford, G, LA Clippers (Team Option-June 30): Doc Rivers the GM could save $4 million by declining Crawford’s option, because only $1.5 million of his $5.67 million for next season is guaranteed. But it’s hard to imagine one of our site’s BFFs getting to the open market, not when you consider that Crawford remains a threat to win the Sixth Man Award every season – even at 35 years old – and Doc Rivers the coach will have all his bench eggs in Lance Stephenson’s basket if he turns Crawford loose. He is starting to break down little, but should be able to snag another multi-year deal amid next summer’s frenzy. There also is a chance he could be traded before midnight ET.
30. Josh Smith, F, Houston Rockets (Unrestricted): After being made the scapegoat – unfairly or not – in both Atlanta and Detroit, you get the sense that he has found some peace in Houston alongside former AAU teammate Dwight Howard, even if their series against Golden State did not exactly go as planned. Don’t forget that the Pistons are paying him over $5 million in each of the next five seasons, which makes taking less money for a smaller role with a contender much more palatable. If he stays with the Rockets, his salary should be directly commensurate with Houston’s playoff success this postseason. If logic flies out the window the way it did when he signed with Detroit, anything is possible.
31. David West, F, Indiana Pacers (Unrestricted): He opted out of the $12.6 million he is due next season, which was a risky move given his age (35 in August) and his dropoff in scoring over the last two years. His toughness is always a welcome commodity, but his midrange game is a funky fit in today’s NBA. One factor could be the direction Indiana takes going forward and whether West sees title contention in his future. Remember, he correctly picked the Pacers over the Celtics for that same reason four years ago.
32. Omer Asik, C, New Orleans (Unrestricted): He may have the Pelicans over a barrel; GM Dell Demps gave up a first-round pick for him because he knew he needed a big body to alleviate some of the pounding on Anthony Davis at the defensive end. Now that New Orleans has had a taste of the postseason – however brief it was – there is pressure to keep moving forward and become a contender in the West. That is less likely to happen without Asik, who doesn’t score but doesn’t ask for the ball, either. In today’s perimeter-based NBA, he is a good fit and could command eight figures even as a single-digit scorer.
33. J.R. Smith, G, Cleveland (Unrestricted): When we first published this summer’s rankings, we wrote this: “He would be crazy to opt out, given his $6.4 million number for next season, the Cavs’ preoccupation with retaining Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson, and the fact that the light bulb is never really going to come on.” So much for expecting Smith to do the sane thing. While a half-season alongside LeBron James seemed to calm him down a bit, his two-game playoff suspension proved that he is a cheetah who isn’t changing his spots. He has had his moments in the playoffs, especially in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals against Atlanta, but he is the epitome of a faulty faucet — nobody runs more hot and cold. He would have been much better off minding his P’s and Q’s for another season and hitting a fertile market next summer.
34. Tristan Thompson, F, Cleveland (Restricted): He turned down a four-year, $52 million contract extension in October, which may or may not have been a mistake. Counting all options and qualifying offers, the Cavs already are on the hook for over $100 million in salaries next season. It’s hard to imagine GM David Griffin maxing out Love and giving $13 million annually to Thompson, who threatens a double-double every night and has more than adequately replaced Love in the rotation during the latter stages of the playoffs.Griffin could allow another team to set the market or simply play a little hardball, which would make Thompson unrestricted in 2016. That might be a mistake, too, given that Thompson and LeBron James share the same agent, Rich Paul.
35. Arron Afflalo, G, Portland (Unrestricted): He was scheduled to receive $7.5 million next season and chose to opt out even though he appeared to regress somewhat this season. He already has established himself as a starting shooting guard, a position that currently has a lack of depth league-wide that could make him a highly desirable player. He might be No. 2 on the league-wide shooting guard pecking order list behind Monta Ellis. Tough call for Blazers GM Neil Olshey, whose to-do list includes determining whether he can keep free agents Aldridge, Matthews and Lopez, not to mention a max extension for Damian Lillard. Yahoo reports the Knicks are a frontrunner.
CONTINUE READING: FREE AGENTS 36-50