Fantasy Spin October 24, 2015

The NBA tips off for real on Tuesday night, and daily contests at DraftKings are now open. In Thursday’s Spin, we outlined the basics of DFS basketball: pick an 8-man roster for a 1-day points league, within a $50K salary cap. Yesterday we showed how just one key development — Tristan Thompson $4600 ending his holdout — can affect lineup selection.

Today we’re going to “stack” the maximum number of players from the game most likely to be wide open and high-scoring. That’s the Pelicans visiting the champion Warriors.

Golden State should win, as they did four straight times in last April’s playoff matchup. But New Orleans has Anthony Davis $10400, certainly the league’s best fantasy player if not the MVP. Only 23, in his fourth year, the Unibrow will eventually have a daily salary in the $12000+ range, so that price is a relative bargain.

Remember, all the homework you have done to prepare for season-long fantasy leagues not only gives you an advantage in the draft room or auction, it can pay off handsomely. The same sleepers you are thrilled to get in the late rounds or for a cheap bid can have ridiculously low DFS salaries at the start of the season; it takes a few games for those bargains to be “corrected” and values to stabilize.

Plays of the Day

The $300K Tip-Off Special is a $3 buy-in (FREE to new depositors at DK) that pays the top 24,000 finishers from up to 115,000 teams. First place wins $50,000. Enter now and you can make unlimited lineup changes until 8:00 Eastern on Tuesday.

Odds are even better in the $200K Crossover, a $27 buy-in where the top 1,850 of a maximum 8,450 teams share the guaranteed prize pool. Highest score wins $20,000.

The rules allow a maximum six players from one team and seven from one game. Stephen Curry $9500 is a must-start at PG. With Jrue Holiday $5100 (leg) on a minutes limit, Tyreke Evans (knee) out until December and Norris Cole (ankle) also unavailable, Nate Robinson $3000 will see a lot of action for the visitors.

Though I slightly prefer Jimmy Butler $7600 to Klay Thompson $7200 in most lineups, the whole idea of stacking is to diversify. Once we are committed to the “most Warriors” approach, Klay becomes a no-brainer. Starting both Splash Brothers is frequently win-win.

After two days of throwing cold water on LeBron James $9800 because he and the Cavs are not trying to peak until the spring, I’m almost disappointed to learn that he has a sore back and might not even suit up on Tuesday. That leaves three SF from our key game: Harrison Barnes $4600 and Andre Iguodala $4300 for GSW, and Dante Cunningham $3000 for the Pellies.

Davis and Draymond Green $6900 are the best bets at PF and F, though Ryan Anderson $5000 is fully recovered from his neck injury, extremely fit, has two preseason double-doubles and will play huge minutes. All three deserve to be in our stack.

As previously pointed out, players are eligible at only one position, and PF is absolutely loaded, while C is very thin. We could complain about that to no avail, or turn it to our advantage. Andrew Bogut $5000 has a broken nose and Omer Asik (calf) is out, so center is the logical position to fill from one of the other two games.

When stacking, I try to spend the minimum on that “required” player. Even if Anderson Varejao $3400 plays only 20 minutes, he will contribute a few points and rebounds. If LBJ doesn’t go, the shaggy Brazilian is a double-double candidate.

The only change in my 15-man Short List is Barnes replacing Iggy as the Midrange SF; I called them interchangeable on Thursday because they tend to alternate big games. This is our third different sample lineup (above left) and I honestly don’t know which one is best.

Entering multiple teams is a very popular strategy in DFS tournaments. It obviously increases your odds of a big win, and in my experience, you often cash multiple times in the same contest. In other words, by entering all three variations, I hope to cash three times.

There are also Head-to-Head and 50-50 contests at DK. In those you want to minimize risk; you’re trying only to finish in the top half of the field. Big jackpots are the place to embrace risk — a surprise performance by a player most opponents don’t own can really pay off.

Pos	Premium	Midrange	Bargain
PG	Stephen Curry $9500	Jeff Teague $7000	Nate Robinson $3000
SG	Jimmy Butler $7600	Klay Thompson $7200	Kent Bazemore $3000
SF	LeBron James $9800	Harrison Barnes $4600	D. Cunningham $3000
PF	Anthony Davis $10400	Draymond Green $6900	Ryan Anderson $5000
C	Andre Drummond $8200	Al Horford $7300	Anderson Varejao $3400