NEW YORK — Owners and players will met again Friday, which is 30 days before Christmas.
And since commissioner David Stern has said it will take approximately 30 days from the date a handshake agreement is reached until the season can start, Friday is going to be a pivotal day. But with that being said, if a handshake is reached Saturday or Sunday, 29 or 28 days will suffice.
A couple of clarifications are in order, based on what I am hearing.
_ The sides met Tuesday, but they did not meet Wednesday as had been reported elsewhere.
_ Too much is being made of Jeffrey Kessler’s absence from Tuesday’s talks. He remains a key player on the union’s negotiating team, even if he is not physically present at every single negotiating session. He has other clients, and he also has a life outside of the 80-100 hours he works each week.
_ Two players who have the most at stake in Friday’s meetings are Deron Williams and Dwight Howard. Owners have asked that there be a prohibition against extend-and-trade deals to prevent players from leveraging their way into trades to favorable destinations. If there is a prohibition against doing what Carmelo Anthony did last season before he was traded from Denver to New York, Williams and Howard are going to lose a lot of leverage if they plan to force their way out of New Jersey/Brooklyn and Orlando, respectively. They could still be traded during the upcoming season, but their new teams would have to re-sign them as unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2012.
_ There will be a lockout stakeout tomorrow, and it is worth noting that every single time the lockout stakeoutissists have had to endure endless hours in hotel lobbies and/or on Manhattan sidewalks, the weather has been nice. Tomorrow’s forecast is for a sunny, 61-degree (16 Celcius) day.
Hasta manana. And suerte to the negotiators. Get ‘er done.
The difference between now and before is the players have called the owners out on their willingness to deal and play nice at negotiating table. Stern thought the players would cave and they showed more resolve, unity and backbone than he anticipated. Whether this move was stupid or not is besides the point, because it equals leverage, however slight, to the players. They refuse to be bullied.
On the owners side, they want the TV money that starts X-Mas Day. This is a huge motivation to compromise and make a better offer. The owners do not want to have return one dime of TV money to TNT ABC ESPN. That money is already accounted for on their financial ledgers and they do not want to have to delete the entry.
I see a trade off between system issue compromises and guaranteed TV money and threat of loss of season ticket holder base if season is canceled. How would you feel about asking your season ticket holders to re-up for 2012-13 if no season occurs? Somewhat daunting. This is why I do not see more of the same. Owners must step up.
I think Stern has had to swallow a little humble pie these last few weeks because in his mind he was going to get what he wanted all along through strong arm tactics. Then his strategy blew up in his face. He was on the air griping like a child who did not get his ice cream cone. I think he has enough self awareness to realize his role in creating his mess and the sphere of influence he still holds to fix it.
I think the events up until this point will knock sense into participants and ego and animosity will be restrained to necessary degree. The time apart was healthy for cooler heads and compromise solutions to prevail. I wish the faces were not the same, because they have been so stubborn and myopic (Silver, Kessler and Fisher especially), but there is too much at stake to flush it.
Deal gets done Sunday.
But if there is no season, Deron Williams, besides losing his $16.4 million in this season’s salary, would only be in the NBA 6 yrs., and his next contract would start at less $.
Also, since re-signing with the Nets gets him an extra year (no way owners are going to cave on that issue), you can bet that DWill wants a settlement ASAP, regardless of the details.
If there is a settlement and DWill re-signs with Nets for another 5 years, he would be over $50 million richer than if the season is canceled and he tries to get traded for a 4 year to begin in the 2012-2013 season.
Deron is happy to remain a Nets player, unlike Dwight Howard. However, my understanding is that Dwight wants out of Orlando. By owners caving on S&T to elite teams for 2 years, I thought that still would allow him to traded to LA for a 4 year deal?
I should have said, if Deron tries to become a free agent next summer by giving up his option year of 17.8 million. Nets are NOT going to trade DWill, when they know he is better off with the Nets.
Howard is totally different case, because he is believed to be demanding a trade at this time and is willing to give up $, because he knows that a Big Market (like Brooklyn) is better for his future.
A player’s contract value can be above the maximum salary. Since his last year’s salary is 16.4 million, his next year starting salary is 5% above that (in the old CBA – the percentage may vary in the new one, but the mechanism will likely remain). Which means his first year salary would be 17.2 million (give or take) and not the 14.5 the maximum scale says it should be. And if the players get the max salary adjustments they want, he could actually make 17.4 million.
The Nets were never going to trade Williams anyway. Sorry Sheridan.
I think utah would have said the same thing about d williams 2 or 3 yrs ago.
Difference being the Nets traded the farm and knew the risk they were taking when doing so. They are not going to trade him for a lesser package than that they gave up for, because they would not get anywhere near that value. If the Nets were not willing to go all in they would not have traded for Deron in the first place. He isn’t getting traded, if he leaves he’lll have to give up on a lot of money.
In keeping with my recent cynicism, I’m going to assume that this is just a plot by the league to bring guys like Hunter and Fisher back to the table to strengthen their claim that the disclaimer of interest is a sham.
It’s just hard to imagine that Stern & co will actually offer something that the players can accept.
I guess the new lawyers can’t do a *worse* job, though.