Free agency starts Friday, and we can guarantee that by Sunday night, your head will be spinning.
Coming out of the last lockout in January 1999, teams made a staggering 100 deals in the first two days. There were 67 transactions on the first day and another 33 on the second day. And that total doesn’t include waiving players or renouncing rights to create cap room.
Unless you become a shut-in, spend the entire weekend in front of your computer and continually refresh the pages of your favorite basketball sites or Twitter account, you will drive yourself crazy trying to keep up with all of the moves and how they impact each team.
As an option, we have something easier to follow.
You know what else happens Friday? Training camps open. And there are a handful of players – and at least one coach – who will be on the spot to answer for last season, perform better and/or live up to the hype.
CARMELO ANTHONY: Just to review the numbers from last season, the Knicks were 28-26 without Melo and 14-14 with him. Meanwhile, the Nuggets were 32-25 with Anthony and 18-7 without him. While his individual greatness is irrefutable, Anthony’s only two career postseason series wins came in 2009, when Chauncey Billups was his point guard. Well, Billups is still his point guard, and Knicks fans who have been waiting 11 years for a playoff win expect big things from a guy who has seven first-round outs on his resume. Throughout the last two months of last season, Anthony tempered those expectations by indicating that learning on the fly was a challenge and a training camp would help. You’ve got 16 days, ‘Melo. Figure it out.
CARLOS BOOZER: Last offseason, the Bulls made runs at LeBron James and Dwyane Wade but settled on Boozer, giving him $80 million over five years. He began the season on the sidelines following a mysterious broken finger and missed 23 games in all with a variety of ailments. His numbers weren’t bad given Derrick Rose’s dominance of the ball and Chicago’s options. But in the postseason, he fell off the map, averaging just 12.6 points while shooting 43 percent and allowing defenses to swarm Rose. Coach Tom Thibodeau says the criticism was “unjust” and Boozer says he is “motivated” to be better this season. If the Bulls are to win a title, he will have to be.
TYREKE EVANS & DEMARCUS COUSINS: Let’s start listing the top under-25 tandems in the NBA. There’s Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City, and Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon in Clipperville. Right behind them, however, have to be Evans and Cousins, who are just 22 and 21, respectively. One or the other led the Kings in every major statistical category except blocks last season, and they give the franchise hope as potential cornerstones. But if you are going to take the shots and the money, you have to take the responsibility as well, a trade-off that some guys (i.e. Tracy McGrady) will never comprehend. There has been talk this offseason that Evans (.409 FG) has improved his jump shot. There also are rumors that he is overweight and out of shape. Cousins spent a portion of his rookie season shooting off his mouth at teammates and coaches. The Kings removed huge banners of both players from outside Arco Arena last season in an effort to reinforce a “we not me” attitude. Let’s see if these young bucks get the message.
RUDY GAY: Before his shoulder injury last season, Gay was doing best to live up to the five-year, $80 million contract he received in the summer of 2010. All three of his shooting numbers were career highs, as were his rebounds, assists, blocks and steals. But the Grizzlies clearly showed they could win without his contributions, going 15-10 to finish the regular season and winning a playoff game and series for the first time. That led to obvious offseason talk about Gay being moved so Memphis could manage its small-market cap. Gay says his shoulder is completely healed and played a fair amount of offseason ball. If he can shift his individual focus from offense to defense, the Grizzlies could be darkhorse title contenders. If he is concerned about shots, he will be moved, because there is cheap talent behind him in Sam Young and Darrell Arthur.
BLAKE GRIFFIN: Well, he certainly made it worth the wait, didn’t he? The first unanimous Rookie of the Year since David Robinson never stopped wowing everyone with his strength and athleticism. In fact, he almost made us overlook that the Clippers lost 50 games for like the trillionth time in club history. The honeymoon’s over. Forget SportsCenter’s Top 10 and work on the Western Conference’s Top 10. It is time for a player with Griffin’s undeniable skill and presence to elevate the Clippers to the postseason.
MARK JACKSON: Yes, he was an extremely smart player who put his coaches at ease when he had the ball in his hands. Yes, he was an excellent analyst who has a strong understanding of the contemporary games and its players. And yes, the track records of Larry Bird, Doc Rivers and Nate McMillan show that you don’t have to serve an extended penance as an assistant to make the transition from player to coach (although we believe it helps). But Jackson is assuming control of a franchise that has one playoff appearance in the last 17 years, has no former head coaches on his staff and debuts with an abbreviated training camp. Good luck.
LEBRON JAMES: “The King” may have the biggest dilemma of anyone here because he can’t even begin to answer the questions about him until late May. He has some serious ‘splaining to do about his postseason disappearing acts in the last two years, which usually trigger this discussion: “Yeah, LeBron is the best player in the NBA, but … ” Most of James’ critics will continue to sneer at him until he wins a ring. But he should get a pass on his playoff problems if he simply goes down fighting, like he did against Boston in 2008 and Orlando in 2009.
AL JEFFERSON: Over the last five seasons, Jefferson is averaging 19.0 points and 10.3 rebounds while shooting 50 percent from the field. He also has appeared in zero playoff games during that span. You have to wonder if Jefferson is a modern-day Walt Bellamy, another big man who put up big numbers, moved from team to team and came up very small in the postseason. Maybe the Jazz will commit to rebuilding around Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter and deal Jefferson to a winner.
RICKY RUBIO: The NBA now has its own version of Tim Tebow, minus the scriptured eyeblack. His prospects are extremely polarizing, with some likening him to “Pistol” Pete Maravich and others predicting he will be an enormous bust. In 11 games this summer in Eurobasket 2011 – which is high-level competition with Olympic berths on the line – Rubio averaged 15.5 minutes, 1.5 points, 2.5 rebounds and 2.1 assists while shooting 7-of-30 from the field and attempting one free throw. On the plus side, he won’t have to learn the triangle.
RUSSELL WESTBROOK: Last season, Westbrook averaged 21.9 points, 8.2 assists and boosted all of his shooting percentages. He is only 23 and no one in their right mind believes he has reached his ceiling as a player – which may be the problem. When Westbrook lost his cool over a benching during last season’s playoffs, some wondered about his relationships with coach Scott Brooks or teammate Kevin Durant. The greater issue is whether Westbrook is so headstrong that he doesn’t feel like riding shotgun to Durant for the next five or six years and wants his “own” team. That sort of power struggle could derail the Thunder’s pursuit of a championship.
Chris Bernucca is a regular contributor to SheridanHoops.com. His column appears every Thursday. You can follow him on Twitter.
You wrote about the KINGS!!! Wooohooo! I think this is the first positive thing I’ve read in the last month that doesn’t deal with losing a free agent or the semi-defunct Power Balance issue.
I knew I read this website for a reason.