PHILADELPHIA – A successful draft is the essential element to fantasy basketball success. Do you have your own system for ranking players, or do you rely on a Website to do your pre-draft prognosticating? In most standard 8-Category leagues (with free throws made rather than free throw percentage) the consensus “Big Three” were LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Dwight Howard in no particular order. I ranked Dwyane Wade a solid #4 and traded up to secure one from this quartet.
Though the sample size is still small, 10 percent of the NBA season has already passed and fantasy league leaders have taken shape. Me, I had a relatively successful draft in our 9-CAT league (includes assist/turnover ratio), selecting Dwight Howard, Blake Griffin, Kyle Lowry, Ty Lawson, Brandon Jennings, Nene, Greg Monroe and Luol Deng as my first eight selections.
It pays to be prepared rather than ill-prepared going into your draft—there’s little doubt much of my fantasy hoops success is predicated on my obsessive spread sheets, player projections and sleepers to shoot for—but the intangible one cannot account for is luck.
Bad luck. There is bad luck in terms of injuries (Brook Lopez going down, then Manu Ginobili and Zach Randolph), and in terms of failing to live up to expectations.
Unfortunately, I had oodles of bad luck (at least in my own mind) of the latter with our 8-CAT league draft. After taking Wade, I selected Josh Smith, LaMarcus Aldridge, Nene, Rudy Gay, Dorell Wright, Ginobili and Lamar Odum. Though my 9th (Marcus Thornton) and 10th (James Harden) picks are terrific values so far, it is impossible to compete when six of your first eight picks are either having down years (Smith), already injured (Ginobili) or rank as a historical bust (Wright). As of now I have no prayer of finishing “in the money” in this league–and with all I put into my draft and past success, I am humbled.
If a player is performing at least three rounds below his projected draft status, he is a bust. Like all facets of life there are levels of busts.
Here’s a list of the Biggest Draft Busts after the first two weeks of play, including my pre-draft projected stats and current stats, as well as my analysis and prognosis for the rest of 2011-12:
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected Stats: 22 ppg, 44.0 fg%, 6.5 ftm, 4.7 reb, 8.2 ast, 2.28 ast/to ratio, 1.6 stl, 0.4 blk
2011-12 Stats: 16.9 ppg, 40.0 fg%, 3.6 ftm, 4.9 reb, 5.3 ast, 1.13 ast/to ratio, 2 st, 0 blk
Analysis/ Prognosis: Westbrook went #4 in our 9-CAT league, and #10 in our 8-CAT league. In my 15+ years of participating in fantasy sports, his stats are historically horrendous. If you took Westbrook in a 9-CAT league, in which point guards have heightened value due to assist/turnover ratio alone, he is single-handedly killing your money chances. A fed-up owner has already dealt him most likely in your league. Westbrook is too skilled, and has too much talent on his team to keep playing this poorly. Count on him to return with a vengeance.
Dorell Wright, Golden State Warriors
Projected Stats: 16.4 ppg, 42.3 fg%, 2.4 3s, 2.2 ftm, 5.3 reb, 3 ast, 1.5 stl, .8 blk
2011-12 Stats: 6.1 ppg, 32.7 fg%, .7 3s, .9 ftm, 4.9 reb, 2.3 ast, .9 st, .4 blk
Analysis/ Prognosis: And speaking of historically horrendous fantasy performance, Wright was drafted #46 and #51 in our two leagues, the latter by yours truly. Words cannot describe the first seven games to his season, so let’s let the stats do it: 32.7 fg%! 6.1 ppg! And from 2.4 3s per game last season to 0.7 per game this season. The first few games Wright was missing shots. He’s now shooting less and still missing shots. Hello? Confidence? A fantasy inquisitor tweeted at me today asking if he should dump Wright and pick up Carl Landry. My advice was to give him two more weeks. Dorell, you are officially on notice!
Deron Williams, New Jersey Nets
Projected Stats: 20 ppg, 45.8 fg%, 1.7 3s, 5.0 ftm, 4.0 reb, 10.5 ast, 3.0 ast/to ratio, 1.25 stl, .2 blk
2011-12 Stats: 18.3 ppg, 36.0 fg%, 1.4 3s, 5.4 ftm, 4.0 reb, 6.4 ast, 1.4 ast/to ratio, 1.7 st, .6 blk
Analysis/ Prognosis: Will he or won’t he get Dwight Howard as his future big man and running mate was the theme of the Nets’ offseason. Then Lopez went down before the season began. The Nets have sub-par offensive talent, thus Williams is a lone gunman and his numbers—though surprisingly up in steals and blocks—are down in the categories he used to all but guarantee productivity for: fg%, assists, and ast/to. Rumors have leaked out of D Will’s camp of his unhappiness. This could get ugly quickly.
Amare Stoudemire, New York Knicks
Projected Stats: 24 ppg, 49.0 fg%, 5.6 ftm, 7.5 reb, 2.5 ast, 0.8 stl, 1.45 blk
2011-12 Stats: 20.0 ppg, 43.9 fg%, 4.8 ftm, 8.4 reb, .8 ast, 1.8 st, 0.8 blk
Analysis/ Prognosis: Amare had a terrific first half of 2010-11. Carmelo Anthony’s arrival on the Knicks negatively impacted Stoudemire’s fantasy numbers. Couple this with the Knicks lacking a true facilitator and I lowered this year’s projections. Still, I am astounded how just how unproductive Stoudemire has become. 9-for-21 is a frequent sight in his box score. If your top big man is shooting 43.9% from the field, you will be at the bottom of that category. His scoring and blocks are down, and his assists total is atrocious even by his menial distribution standards. Without a true point guard until Baron Davis is healthy, I don’t foresee much improvement.
Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks
Projected Stats: 17 ppg, 47.7 fg%, 3.2 ftm, 8.6 reb, 3.5 ast, 1.4 stl, 1.9 blk
2011-12 Stats: 13.1 ppg, 42.0 fg%, 2.8 ftm, 9.4 reb, 2.8 ast, 1.0 st, 1.5 blk
Analysis/ Prognosis: I was bamboozled taking Smith #15 in my 8-CAT league! Here I thought I was drafting the new and improved rendition, but instead received lower production from J Smoove, the mercurial, inconsistent talent who dominates both ends of the court one night and loafs from end line to end line the next. After a horrendous first six games, Smith has put together back-to-back quality games Thursday and Friday night. I am optimistic Smith will get his numbers back to where I projected.
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
Projected Stats: 23 ppg, 50.5 fg%, 1.0 3s, 5.6 ftm, 7 reb, 2.6 ast, 0.6 stl, 0.7 blk
2011-12 Stats: 20.1 ppg, 46.0 fg%, .5 3s, 4.5 ftm, 5.6 reb, 2.6 ast, 1 st, 0.3 blk
Analysis/ Prognosis: The defending champion Mavericks are thus far the most disappointing team in the NBA, and Dirk one of the culprits of their failures. Is it a case of Championship Hangover? Age? I don’t know, and I am glad Dirk’s not on any of my squads. Perhaps this is the beginning of the decline of the Big German?
Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers
Projected Stats: 24 ppg, 42.5 fg%, 2.3 3s, 5.5 ftm, 5.4 reb, 2.7 ast, 1.1 stl, 0.8 blk
2011-12 Stats: 15.1 ppg, 30.4 fg%, 1.9 3s, 3.3 ftm, 4.7 reb, 1.9 ast, 2.1 st, 1.0 blk
Analysis/ Prognosis: The good news is that Granger’s steals are way up. The bad news is that his numbers elsewhere range from down a bit (3s, rebounds) to appalling (fg%, ppg). While the Pacers’ talent (Darren Collison, Paul George and Roy Hibbert) has increased the past few years, Granger’s game has regressed. I anticipate his numbers increasing a tad, but not enough to warrant a top 30-selection.
Kevin Martin, Houston Rockets
Projected Stats: 23 ppg, 43.0 fg%, 2.0 3s, 7.5 ftm, 3.3 reb, 2.5 ast, 1.0 stl
2011-12 Stats: 16.6 ppg, 30.4 fg%, 2.0 3s, 2.9 ftm, 2.1 reb, 2.4 ast, .4 st,
Analysis/ Prognosis: Martin was drafted #33 and #38 in our leagues. He’d be lucky to break into the Top 100 based on his stats to date, given his points per game are down significantly, he can’t throw the ball in an ocean and is no longer earning trips to the free throw line. What’s alarming is that Martin is playing with one of the league’s best ball distributors in Kyle Lowry—his numbers should have increased! The lack of aggressive play gives me pause. Is Martin injured?
Dis-Honorable Mention:
Andray Blatche, Washington Wizards
Projected Stats: 19 ppg, 47.0 fg%, 4.5 ftm, 8.5 reb, 2.4 ast, 1.6 stl, 0.7 blk
2011-12 Stats: 12.4 ppg, 40.7 fg%, 1.9 ftm, 6.9 reb, 1.1 ast, 0.9 st, 1.0 blk
Michael Beasley, Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected Stats: 18.5 ppg, 45.0 fg%, .8 3s, 3.0 ftm, 5.6 reb, 2.2 ast
2011-12 Stats: 12.9 ppg, 39.4 fg%, .6 3s, 1.1 ftm, 7.0 reb, 1.0 ast
David West, Indiana Pacers
Projected Stats: 19 ppg, 48.5 fg%, 3.8 ftm, 7.5 reb, 2.5 ast, .9 stl, .9 blk
2011-12 Stats: 10.4 ppg, 38.6 fg%, 2.7 ftm, 7.4 reb, 2.6 ast, .4 st, .9 blk
Luis Scola, Houston Rockets
Projected Stats: 18 ppg, 51.4 fg%, 3.2 ftm, 8.0 reb, 2.5 ast
2011-12 Stats: 14.9 ppg, 51.0 fg%, 0.9 ftm, 4.7 reb, 1.4 ast
David Lee, Golden State Warriors
Projected Stats: 17 ppg, 52.0 fg%, 2.9 ftm, 10 reb, 3.2 ast, 0.1 stl
2011-12 Stats: 17.2 ppg, 45.1 fg%, 3.5 ftm, 8.8 reb, .8 ast, 0.5 st
Marc Kravitz, based in Philadelphia, provides Quality Assurance Mystery Shopper services to Restaurants throughout the Mid-Atlantic region. He is a Mixed Martial Arts fanatic and Fantasy Basketball junkie. In Fantasy Hoops, “Krewtime” has finished “in the money” in 85% of the leagues he has participated in. Follow Marc’s fantasy advice on Twitter @Marc_Kravitz
The lack of assists from Lee are killing me.. 3.2 to .8? Not good for a big man partially drafted because of not-so-horrible A/T.