The random luck of picking league owner names out of a hat for draft positions has always been the bane of my fantasy basketball existence. Each year upon receiving the e-mail with the draft order results from one of my two leagues’ commissioners, you’ll typically read my team’s moniker, “Krewtime”, between sixth and ninth in either nine-team league.
Lebron James was the first selection in both our 8-CAT and 9-CAT league drafts, and he’s more than lived up to that status. After eschewing shooting three-pointers for the first two weeks of the season, James has reinstated this aspect of his repertoire and is now the only fantasy player to consistently fill all eight (or nine for those in Ast/To leagues) categories on any given night.
While injuries have usurped the fantasy value of first rounders Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade—not to mention crushing the “money” hopes of their fantasy owners worldwide—other top picks have performed as expected. In addition to LeBron, the other consensus top picks, Dwight Howard and Kevin Durant, have been beasts. Good luck persuading someone in your league to deal you one from this trio.
While attempting to trade for a top-of-the-food-chain stud during the season is near impossible, making an offer for a player you deem a sleeper candidate to break out is considerably more feasible. Target the right player and he can push your squad “into the money.” Sleepers aren’t necessarily players you pick up off the waiver wire but guys who are perceived to have lower value than they actually are worth, or could be worth more should a significant injury occur to a teammate.
Here’s a list of my Top 5 Fantasy Performers after the first four weeks of play and Top 5 Fantasy Sleepers to watch out for in standard 8-CAT leagues with free throws made:
TOP 5 PLAYERS
Lebron James, Miami Heat
2011-12 Stats: 29.9 ppg, 56.3 fg%, 0.7 3s, 7.2 ftm, 7.9 reb, 7.6 ast, 2.0 stl, 0.8 blk
Analysis/ Prognosis: King James has been all that and then some in the land of fantasy basketball thus far. LeBron has produced the type of stats expected of the consensus premier fantasy player, but with the unexpected addition of top-level field goal percentage (when a player takes 18 shots per game and makes them at the clip James has, you are almost guaranteed to be among the leaders in the category). An 8-CAT night is a pleasant surprise coming from most players; from Lebron, it’s the norm.
Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic
2011-12 Stats: 20.2 ppg, 57.5 fg%, 5.4 ftm, 16.1 reb, 2.4 ast, 1.4 stl, 2.3 blk
Analysis/ Prognosis: Howard may have given some owners pause using a top 3 pick on him this season due to the ongoing uncertainty of his future. D12 has excelled as typical in field goal percentage and blocks, and been very good in scoring, steals and free throws made. This season Howard has ratcheted his rebounding up to a new level, averaging a career-high 16.1 per game.
Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
2011-12 Stats: 26.5 ppg, 49.8 fg%, 1.7 3s, 6.3 ftm, 6.9 reb, 3.3 ast, 1.1 stl, 1.2 blk
Analysis/ Prognosis: Any drama involving the on-court harmony between Thunder point guard Russell Westbrook and KD has escaped the NBA’s lowest maintenance superstar. While only among the top producers in one of the eight major fantasy categories (points per game) Durant consistently fills seven categories a night, only failing to generate significantly in assists.
Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies
2011-12 Stats: 14.9 ppg, 53.0 fg%, 3.6 ftm, 10.6 reb, 3.0 ast, 1.1 stl, 2.4 blk
Analysis/ Prognosis: Once upon a time the younger of the Gasol brothers was a relatively unknown second-round pick of the Los Angeles Lakers included in a trade to Memphis for his older brother Pau. Until this season Gasol was a very solid fantasy center, a top 50 player. This season—coincidence or not with injured teammate Zach Randolph no longer taking up space down low—Marc has arguably raised his level to top 5 production, increasing his numbers nearly across the board. Even better for his owners, his assist totals have been increasing recently.
Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
2011-12 Stats: 30.4 ppg, 45.4 fg%, 1.2 3s, 6.9 ftm, 5.5 reb, 5.7 ast, 1.4 stl, 0.4 blk
Analysis/ Prognosis: Mea Culpa time. As noted in last week’s column I bumped down Kobe on my draft boards this season. Formerly a first-round lock in fantasy hoops, I surmised this to be the season age and old legs caught up with the Black Mamba. Rather than ceding some of the offensive load this season to Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum, Bryant has instead increased his numbers in nearly every category, most notably scoring. Rather than slipping to top 25 status as I surmised, Kobe still ranks among the top 5 fantasy players.
TOP 5 SLEEPERS TO WATCH
Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks
2011-12 Stats: 12.4 ppg, 45.8 fg%, 0.9 3s, 5.8 ast, 2.3 st, 0.4 blk
Analysis/ Prognosis: Teague was such an afterthought last season the Hawks brass traded midseason for a point guard, Kirk Hinrich. A late-round pick in most fantasy league drafts this season, Teague has slowly taken the reigns of the team now that team leader Al Horford is most likely gone for the year. His steals are already among the league’s leaders, and his assist and point totals have been increasing. Teague could very well end up averaging 14 points and 6.5 assists per game, if not more.
Evan Turner, Philadelphia 76ers
2011-12 Stats: 10.4 ppg, 46.8 fg%, 6.3 reb, 2.9 ast.
Analysis/ Prognosis: ET is a vital part of the 76ers’ vaunted bench (also know as the “Night Shift”). The confidence and swagger of last season’s #2 overall pick has seemingly grown by the game. Earlier this week Turner put up 20 points and 11 rebounds versus Denver. I was lucky enough to pick him up off the waiver wire this past Sunday in our 9-CAT league. Turner’s game is versatile enough to play significant minutes at either guard position or at small forward for the 76ers. It would not come as a surprise to watch Turner regularly put up 13 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists per game moving forward.
Elton Brand, Philadelphia 76ers
2011-12 Stats: 10.3 ppg, 47.6 fg%, 7.4 reb, 1.3 st, 1.5 blk
Analysis/ Prognosis: Brand will not live up to the huge free agent contract the 76ers signed him to or his 20 point/10 rebound games of yesteryear. While most fantasy owners simply look at his lowly points per game average, smart owners will notice his rebound, steal and block numbers are quite useful. Ostensibly still rounding into shape, watch EB’s points (and most likely free throws made) increase to 14 per game over the next month.
Brandon Knight, Detroit Pistons
2011-12 Stats: 12.4 ppg, 1.6 3s, 3.6 reb, 3.3 ast, 0.9 st
Analysis/ Prognosis: Brandon Knight fantasy owners will benefit moving forward given that he is a lottery pick on a team lacking pizzazz, and the Pistons’ guard rotation has been decimated with injuries. With Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum again sidelined, Knight’s playing time at lead guard only will increase.
Luke Ridnour, Minnesota Timberwolves
2011-12 Stats: 12.5 ppg, 49.0 fg%, 1.3 3s, 3.5 ast, 0.9 st
Analysis/ Prognosis: It was assumed Ricky Rubio would eventually take over as starting point guard this season for the Wolves, and that Ridnour would be sent to the bench. Not many prognosticators would have predicted Rubio to become a starter a dozen games into his rookie season. Less would have predicted that Rick Adelman would name Ridnour his starting shooting guard, where he should flirt with 14 points, 1.5 three-pointers and 5 assists per game, while maintaining one of the highest field goal percentages for a guard.
Marc Kravitz, based in Philadelphia, provides Quality Assurance Mystery Shopper services to Restaurants throughout the Mid-Atlantic region. He is a Mixed Martial Arts fanatic and Fantasy Basketball junkie. In Fantasy Hoops, “Krewtime” has finished “in the money” in 85% of the leagues he has participated in. Follow Marc’s fantasy advice on Twitter @Marc_Kravitz