Tuesday’s Lin-tangibles
I loved seeing the latest episode of the Jeremy Lin show in person. The phenom was outplayed by red-hot Jose Calderon (25 PTS, 7 REB, 9 AST) until Mike D’Antoni made a defensive switch. In the fourth quarter, with Iman Shumpert on Calderon, Lin took over, as you already know.
His fantasy value (like his real value to the Knicks and the NBA) rocketed off the charts the last two weeks. The deeper the league, the more he’s an outlier. We can only guess his typical stats once Melo is back. Points (27 last night) will go down, while the ratio of assists (a career-high 11) to turnovers (eight) should improve. Job security is no longer a factor with each game. Even if Baron Davis ever gets healthy, fit and motivated, Jeremy will play.
This is hardly an exact science. Let’s call him a top-15 PG for the rest of this season. Keeper leagues add yet another level of uncertainty. There’s no way to predict Lin’s job description next year. In some deep dynasty leagues, he’s probably worth a flyer.
Those who bought low on “Shao” Lin have two choices. If you were already a contender, enjoy the ride. Selling high (getting a better keeper, for example, or a future draft pick) makes more sense for anyone who is out of this year’s race.
Meanwhile, Amare Stoudemire returned from bereavement leave, shook off some early rust and finished with 21. For the disappointed Raptors, Amir Johnson (5 BLK) and Linas Kleiza (15 PTS, 11 REB) looked very good. Leandro Barbosa may lose playing time (31 min) when Jerryd Bayless returns, which is imminent.
There’s trouble in Portland, where LaMarcus Aldridge sprained an ankle and will miss an as-yet-unknown amount of time. Nate McMillan shuffled his lineup and Nicolas Batum, starting at SG, went off for 33 points. Wesley Matthews, demoted to sixth man, chipped in 15. One game is not enough to make me drop Matthews for Batum, but it could be the start of a trend. The Wizards, behind huge nights from John Wall (29) and Nick Young (25), won easily.
The Heat are really hot. Another easy road win, a 20-point night from Norris Cole and plenty of rest for the starters. The Pacers were blown out 68-39 by halftime, which explains the strange box score.
Seriously, buy low if you can on Manu Ginobili. Mention in every trade offer that he broke his shooting hand and isn’t himself. One lousy point on 0-4 shooting will never happen again, and he will soon be back in game shape. His Spurs were deep enough to beat the Pistons anyway.
In Memphis, Mike Conley (21) and Rudy Gay (20) led a balanced attack to win, but the fantasy news concerns Kevin Martin, who played 19 scoreless minutes. He’s suffering from a sore back; this wasn’t another “motivational” benching. Courtney Lee will benefit most if Kev-Mart misses any games. Sam Dalembert got more run (9 PTS, 10 REB) and Patrick Patterson had a quiet night.
DeMarcus Cousins is a beast. 28 PTS, 17 REB, 2 BLK, 2 AST, 3 STL and he even hit a 3-pointer. Tyreke Evans (27) and Marcus Thornton (23) also played well, but the Bulls are just too deep, even without Derrick Rose. In particular, Joakim Noah (22 PTS, 11 REB, 4 BLK) was great and bench gunner Kyle Korver (18, inclusing 4-5 from downtown) made the difference.
Utah, with Devin Harris (15 min.) being outplayed by Earl Watson (28 min.) and a scoreless night from Gordon Hayward, was no match for the Thunder. I never spend much time trying to interpret garbage-time stats.
Steve Nash and Grant Hill were given the night off in Denver, so don’t get too excited about Michael Redd starting and scoring 20, or the fine game from Markieff Morris off the bench. Arron Afflalo stayed hot for the Nuggets, and Chris Anderson (in the absence of Nene and Timofey Mozgov) had a huge night: 16 PTS, 7 REB and 6 BLK.
Despite a mere 10 points from Kobe Bryant, the Lakers held off the Hawks. Of note in very deep leagues, Eric Dampier played 16 minutes and Ivan Johnson got a DNP-CD.
Wednesday’s Wisdom
As I said to a Twitter follower, if wisdom is a synonym for hunches, I’m your man. With a 13-game slate, we can’t preview them all in any detail. Not sure how the Raptors will respond 24 hours after that heartbreaking loss in a full gym, so the Spurs, a great road team, may have a good night.
The Knicks are back home, have won six straight and match up well vs. the Kings. Everyone on both teams might put up numbers.
For spot starters, try Chris Wilcox and JuJuan Johnson, the only two Celtics big men who are healthy.
The Sixers are, at least temporarily, like a bagel (hole in the middle) which means Dwight Howard should be unstoppable.
Cleveland is still trying to replace Anderson Varejao, an impossible task. I like rookie Tristan Thompson much better than Semih Erden or Samardo Samuels to be most productive, perhaps because he’s a fellow Canadian, but mostly because he’s talented. Be sure to get Kyrie Irving back in all lineups; he’s expected to receive medical clearance in time to play. Make a slight downward adjustment to your expectations for Ramon Sessions and Daniel Gibson.
In the late games, Portland — without LMA — tries to regroup against the Warriors. Batum is a very good play, and David Lee might have extra room to operate.
The resurgent JaVale McGee and the ever-exciting Blake Griffin will be fun to watch in L.A., but it’s highly unlikely that the Wizards will win three straight road games, so be sure to start all your Clippers.
If by some miracle, Nikola Pekovic is available in your league, grab him. The new T-Wolves starting center is a lot of fun to watch, and to own. No word on the availability of Luke Ridnour (personal) which may mean another chance for Martell Webster.
Denver visits Dallas, with Corey Brewer still the starting SF and Kenneth Faried at PF. Both are good plays, especially in deeper leagues. If Timofey Mozgov returns — some thought the big Russian might play last night — Kosta Koufos might fade away. If not, Koufos will start.
Hard to say whether the Hawks will play their best in Phoenix tonight, after that tough loss in L.A., and with a rested Steve Nash going for the Suns, my spot-start hunches are Jared Dudley and Grant Hill.
Best of luck tonight, and feel free to ask questions in the comments here or on Twitter.
It depends on who is available, but give Felton a longer leash than Harris. Coach Tyrone Corbin seems to prefer Earl Watson, who replaced Harris just 4:37 into the second half last night. A trade might be the best thing for the Jazz and Harris.
How badly do you need AST? Consider a PG-eligible SG like Iman Shumpert, who played the entire fourth quarter last night in a comeback win. I wouldn’t hesitate to pick him up for Harris.
The options at PG/SG are very limited in my league. The top PGs on waiver are Earl Watson and Norris Cole. I’ve been debating whether to drop Harris for Watson for a long time coming. And I find it is almost inevitable that Watson will take over the starting role.
The only upside on Harris is a possible trade before the deadline which will hopefully rejuvinate him. I do remember a few games back that Watson had to signal to Tyrone Corbin to take him out of the game in the fourth quarter because he looked noticeably winded which makes me question his conditioning.
Also, I was hoping that Felton’s early season slumps were attributed to his lock-out conditioning. There were several reports saying that he came in over weight too. But he hasn’t really picked it up since then. The upside is that he doesn’t have anyone challenging his position unless they put Crawford at PG which they did down the stretch yesterday against Wizards. Good for Felton that Crawford slumped as well.
Exactly. Harris may even be *trying* to get traded, and Watson isn’t a great fantasy player. Cole would tempt me. He got extra run last night because Mario Chalmers has a sore left hand and is capable of intermittent big nights in garbage time, as the Heat run up their share of lopsided wins. Norris is a key streamer on Friday, returning to Cleveland where he starred in college.
Just like Nate McMillan, Felton owners have no other choice but patience. He was a keeper for me in one league, and some days I want to cut him out of spite. 🙂
I have both Devin Harris and Raymond Felton in a 16 team league and they are both stinking it up for me this year. They were both mid to late round picks and I took gambles on both of them and up until now, it seems that I’ve lost that gamble. Should I keep these two PGs or scrap them to the waiver? HELP!