Hamilton: Nate McMillan should replace Mike D’Antoni as Knicks coach

NEW YORK – Back in May 2008, Mike D’Antoni bolted the Phoenix Suns for the skyscrapers of the Big Apple. Although he spent five seasons coaching in the desert, he’s never felt the heat like this. Not even in Miami.

Sadly, the sun seems to be setting on Mike D’Antoni’s tenure in New York, and Nate McMillan might make some sense as a potential replacement. (Assuming, of course, that Phil Jackson is not interested – a topic addressed on this site by colleague Mark Heisler back in January.)

The Knicks have a very talented roster that needs to develop some chemistry and cohesion in order to make any noise in the NBA’s Eastern Conference.

That takes time, but unfortunately, D’Antoni is running out of that commodity.

After losing their last three games, the Knicks are now 18-21 and are looking less and less likely to overtake the Boston Celtics and catch the Philadelphia 76ers—who they trail by 4.5 games—for the division crown.

For D’Antoni, this is especially bad news because I’ve been told that any hope of him being offered a new deal hinges on the Knicks winning their first-round playoff series. That shouldn’t be too much to ask, especially considering that, before the season began, D’Antoni himself proclaimed that he expected the Knicks to be a championship contender.

You’ve gotta crawl before you walk. And as it stands, the Knicks haven’t won a playoff series in 12 years. Also, let’s not get ahead of ourselves; the Knicks have to make sure they make the playoffs. That’s no guarantee.

Today, the Knicks are barely clinging to the eighth seed. They currently have a three-game lead over the Milwaukee Bucks—who they will play tonight. A loss would diminish their lead to just two games.

But whether or not the Knicks beat the Bucks is immaterial to the larger point; the Knicks haven’t looked any better than the seventh or eighth seed all season, and from here on out, the schedule only gets tougher.

Tonight, in Milwaukee, the Knicks will play only their fifth game in the past 14 days. That’s a luxury that they won’t have for the rest of the season.

By now, they were supposed to look their freshest. They were supposed to look as though they were coming together. They were supposed to have turned a corner, maybe by beating Boston, Dallas or San Antonio this past week.

Instead, they’ve broken down.

In Wednesday night’s 118-105 beating in San Antonio, the Knicks were forced to play without defensive staples Jared Jeffries and Tyson Chandler. The result was a 48-minute layup line in which the Spurs shot 54 percent from the field and scored 60 points in the paint.

Over the past five games, the Knicks’ team defense has been pitiful. In February, the Knicks went 10-5 and gave up 93 ppg to their opponents. Over their last five games—four of which they’ve lost—they have given up 107.

The more astute observers will correlate the returns of Carmelo Anthony and Stoudemire to the lineup after both missed time. And that’s fair. But the bottom line for a coach—especially one in the final year of his deal—is wins and losses.

Madison Square Garden is selling out every night, and that’s because of Anthony, Stoudemire, and Jeremy Lin. It’s not because of D’Antoni.

Best believe the coach will be the scapegoat and will be gone long before Jim Dolan ever considers trading any of the aforementioned three.

What’s worse for D’Antoni is that Anthony has obviously grown frustrated with his role in the offense. He is being underutilized and is essentially being asked to become a hybrid of the Suns’ versions of Joe Johnson and Shawn Marion. In essence, he’s asked to move the ball when he’s covered and take open shots when they’re available.

Two problems with that: First, he’s always covered because opposing defenses know who he is, and second, not one person on the Knicks team is an above-average passer than can consistently get Anthony the ball when the opposing defenses have breakdowns and he finds himself open.

During the height of Linsanity, the Sixers and Celtics were fading and the Knicks were climbing. Winning the Atlantic Division seemed attainable. But over the past week, the Knicks have taken a step back. Time is running out. And with each loss, the prospect of catching the 76ers diminishes.

Connect the dots.

If the Knicks fail to win the division but make the playoffs, they’ll be stuck in seventh or eighth. That would mean a first-round matchup with either the Chicago Bulls or the Miami Heat.

And in all likelihood, that would mean another first-round exit.

The odds of D’Antoni being brought back under those circumstances?

Zilch.

And that’s probably fair.

Although D’Antoni’s tenure has been marked by constant roster turnover and moving pieces, one could easily make the case that D’Antoni hasn’t done a good job maximizing the pieces he’s been given.

Sometimes, you have a good coach with a good system and good players. And you know what? Sometimes, it just doesn’t work out. Go ask Doc Rivers and Rick Carlisle, who learned that lesson in Orlando and Detroit, respectively.

Just think: Donnie Walsh made the Knicks relevant again, helped bring them to the playoffs, and saved Dolan millions in luxury tax savings along the way.

What’d he get for his trouble?

Why would Dolan treat D’Antoni—whose career record as Knicks head coach is 121-164—any better?

And if and when the time comes for Dolan to replace D’Antoni, he’s likely to solicit some input from his franchise player, ‘Melo.

Anthony has not thrived under D’Antoni and has grown frustrated in his system. Now, after a few weeks of digging and connecting dots, I have learned that McMillan would be on the short list of potential D’Antoni replacements should the Knicks decide not to offer him a new contract.

Although McMillan is currently in the first year of a two-year contract extension he signed in March 2011, news has been trickling out of Portland that McMillan is losing his locker room and is likely to be relieved of his duties come the end of the season.

Interestingly enough, McMillan and D’Antoni are in very similar situations. Both coaches led their teams to the playoffs last season. Each as the sixth seed.

Both lost in the first round.

Both teams made some improvements to the roster coming into this season, and both coaches were met with high expectations. Both have disappointed.

The major difference, however, is McMillan’s reputation for getting the most out of the talent he’s had on his rosters. Despite a myriad of injuries to key players over the years, the Trail Blazers have steadily improved since McMillan’s 2005 arrival and have averaged 51 wins per season over the past three years.

Under D’Antoni, the Knicks have struggled.

Knicks ownership will keep an eye on how the McMillan situation plays out. As of now, the plan is to let D’Antoni’s contract expire and evaluate him and the job he’s done during the offseason. When the summer rolls around, the pool of attainable coaches will be evaluated.

According to a source with intimate knowledge of Anthony’s thinking, he would endorse a move to hire McMillan. McMillan—like D’Antoni—has been a member of Mike Krzyzewski’s Team USA coaching staff. McMillan was hired in November 2005 after Jerry Colangelo took over the national team program.

Anthony has been a member of Team USA since the summer of 2002, when he played on the junior national team. Since McMillan was hired in 2005, the two have spent three summers together. Anthony was a member of the 2006 FIBA World Championship team, the 2007 FIBA Americas Championship team, and the 2008 Olympics team.

In Portland, McMillan has excelled running a system predicated on half-court execution, play calling, and isolation. Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge were prominently featured alongside point guards who were able to execute and centers who could defend the rim and finish.

With that formula, McMillan was able to consistently win 50 games.

With a similar cast, who knows what he could do with the Knicks?

Mike D’Antoni hopes you’ll never get the chance to find out. But the Knicks need to get it together, win some games and make it to the second round.

D’Antoni’s on the the hot seat, and the clock is ticking.

Moke Hamilton covers the New York Knicks for SheridanHoops.com and is the lead NBA Writer for CHARGED.fm. For the latest on the New York Knicks and all things NBA, follow him on Twitter.