Bernucca: NBA playoff races are 16 days to glory, for some

Sixteen days to glory.

The title of Bud Greenspan’s documentary of the 1984 Olympics also is fitting for the NBA season, which has just 16 days remaining and a dozen playoff spots still up for grabs.

For argument’s sake, we’re going to assume middle-of-the-packers Indiana, Boston, Atlanta and Orlando will eventually clinch berths in the Eastern Conference, while the Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers and Memphis will sew up spots in the West.

All seven of those teams have fewer than 25 losses and at least a four-game lead over the ninth-place team. Barring a meltdown rivaling Chernobyl, they should find a way to be playing in May.

But there are eight teams gunning for the remaining five slots, which are very much in question. Below, we have a breakdown of each team, with predictions and projections.

EASTERN CONFERENCE: Three teams for two slots

PHILADELPHIA (30-27): Home: 2. Road: 7. Playoff Teams: 3. Big Game: at Milwaukee, April 25. Are the 76ers panicking? Doug Collins benched starters Spencer Hawes and Evan Turner for Tuesday’s win at New Jersey, which temporarily stopped the bleeding. They have the worst home-road balance of any chaser and a stretch of three games in three nights April 16-18. If they can beat the teams they’re supposed to (Nets twice, Cavs, Pistons, Raptors) – no small task given their struggles of late – their meeting with the Bucks may not mean anything. But it will serve as the tiebreaker between the teams. PROJECTION: Eighth seed.

NEW YORK (29-28): Home: 4. Road: 5. Playoff Teams: 4. Big Game: at Milwaukee, April 11. The Knicks are 11-4 since Mike Woodson replaced Mike D’Antoni as coach, a tremendous push given that a portion of it has been without injured starters Amar’e Stoudemire and Jeremy Lin. A win tonight in Milwaukee would secure the tiebreaker over the Bucks and allow them to look forward rather than backward. If they lose, it will be a fight to the end for the final spot. And if they stumble down the stretch, the whole world will know; six of their remaining games are on national TV. PROJECTION: Seventh seed.

MILWAUKEE (28-29): Home: 5. Road: 4. Playoff Teams: 5. Big Game: vs. New York, April 11. The Bucks are the only team under .500 that has playoff aspirations and must have tonight’s game to change that status and stay in the race. They are 9-5 since acquiring Monta Ellis, who continues to feel his way. Like Philadelphia, Milwaukee also has two games left with Indiana, which looks like it will have a huge say in how things shake out. The season finale is at Boston, which may rest its regulars. PROJECTION: Ninth.

WESTERN CONFERENCE: Five teams for three slots

HOUSTON (32-25): Home: 5. Road: 4. Playoff Teams: 4. Big Game: vs. Phoenix, April 13. The Rockets just completed a 4-0 road trip and have won eight of their last 11, with two of the losses in overtime. And they have done most of that without their injured starting backcourt of Kyle Lowry and Kevin Martin, who should vote Goran Dragic and Courtney Lee their playoff shares. Houston’s path is clearly laid out but ain’t easy – its next two games are at home vs. chasers Utah and Phoenix, followed by a home-and-home with Denver, then a visit to Dallas. By this time next week, they should be entrenched as a playoff team: PROJECTION: Sixth seed.

DALLAS (32-26): Home: 2. Road: 6. Playoff Teams: 4. Big Game: at Utah, April 16. The Mavericks have perhaps the toughest closing schedule of any chaser, with their next seven games over 10 days. That could be a bumpy ride for the champs, who went 2-7 over a 12-day death march earlier this season. Four road games in five nights ends Monday in Salt Lake City, where a win could erase one of the teams nipping at their heels. Coach Rick Carlisle should want Oklahoma City rather than San Antonio in the first round. PROJECTION: Eighth seed.

DENVER (31-26): Home: 4. Road: 5. Playoff Teams: 6. Big Game: vs. Houston, April 15. The Nuggets just got back Danilo Gallinari, who isn’t going to provide the post play they’ve been missing since Nene was dealt to the Wizards. Their easiest remaining game is tonight vs. Minnesota and is no gimme with losses to New Orleans and Golden State on their recent ledger. Most folks are pointing to an April 21 visit to Phoenix as Denver’s make-or-break game. But the Nuggets have to split their home-and-home with the Rockets to tighten up the entire race and make every team as uncomfortable as them. PROJECTION: Ninth.

PHOENIX (30-27): Home: 5. Road: 4. Playoff Teams: 7. Big Game: vs. Denver, April 21. If the Suns get in, no one can accuse them of using the back door. Their easiest remaining game is Monday vs. Portland, which has played hard since changing coaches. But Phoenix is 18-8 since just before the All-Star break and can make some serious headway with a win Friday at Houston. All the Suns really have to do is keep the Nuggets in their crosshairs until April 21. They close at home with San Antonio, which might be resting its regulars. PROJECTION: Seventh seed.

UTAH (30-28): Home: 4. Road: 4. Playoff Teams: 4. Big Game: at Houston, April 11. Injuries have come at the worst time as both Earl Watson (best on-ball defender) and C.J. Miles (athleticism) went down this week. There are key home showdowns with Dallas on Monday and Phoenix on April 24, where Utah can gain some traction on a couple of teams in their sights. But those games wont’ mean much unless the Jazz beat the Rockets tonight, because a loss would bump them three games in the loss column out of the final playoff spot. PROJECTION: 10th.

Chris Bernucca is a regular contributor to SheridanHoops.com. His columns appear every Wednesday and Sunday. You can follow him on Twitter.