Northwest Division Fantasy Preview (Part II)
For the introduction to this article and our comments on the Thunder and Nuggets see Part I.
Utah Jazz
Last year the Jazz surprised many by qualifying for the playoffs and again are viewed as a bubble team. The reason isn’t their talent level but how the pieces come together.
Whereas the Denver Nuggets are an example of an ideal fantasy team, the Jazz resemble a poorly-built one. All their talent, depth and upside is concentrated in a couple of positions and scoring categories. The parts are worth more than the whole.
Even their offseason additions did little to change up the mix as Mo Williams and Marvin Williams are basically the same players they replaced — Devin Harris and C.J. Miles respectively. While the eventual Paul Millsap trade will hurt the team’s overall talent level, if they can address the roster’s imbalance, it may be a case of addition by subtraction.
Despite their imbalance, the Jazz have plenty of solid, sleeper and potential breakout players for you to know and draft.
Best to Own
Al Jefferson re-emerged last year as low post force with 19.2 PPG, 9.6 RPG and 1.7 BLKPG and he does it with an excellent FT% of 77.4 for a C. His ADP of 8 is a shave too high for me as I prefer to draft him after 10.
Paul Millsap is known for his rebounding but has become the league’s best mid range jump shooter and one of the best non-PG STL options (1.8 STLPG). His ADP of 18 is in line with his value. If you play in a league that counts fouls, you might want to look elsewhere.
Solid Contributors
Mo Williams was a solid NBA PG who used to own the mid tier at the position. After two seasons in bad situations for him, he returns as the primary ball handler on a fast-paced club with plenty of weapons. His current ADP in the mid 80’s assumes that he returns most but not all of the way.
Marvin Williams contributes a little bit in every category and if he could improve his FG% to over 45% would significantly increase his value. The move to the higher paced Jazz should serve him well and you no longer have to pay the former 2nd overall draft pick premium to acquire him.
Sleepers
Derrick Favors is the classic sleeper because he is a well-known talent, who showed what he can do in limited action in the playoffs. Significant improvement is already priced into his ADP but he could easily earn more than the mid-110’s once the Millsap roadblock is cleared.
Gordon Hayward earned some extra minutes last year and did not disappoint with solid numbers for SG/SF including a 45.6 FG% and 3.1 APG. He still has room to grow and increase his minutes from 30.5 pg. His current ADP in the mid-120’s is actually below his mid 90’s value last from last season.
Jeremy Evans deserves more minutes as his per-minute numbers are some of the best in the whole NBA. I just don’t know at whose expense they come from.
Players to Avoid
Randy Foye definitely has a place in the NBA as a streaky scorer off the bench who can play either guard position but in fantasy, he’s a FG% killer.
Earl Watson is a prototypical back-up PG — strong in short stints, he gets exposed in extended auditions. He now has to share minutes with Foye and Tinsley and could be further marginalized if the Millsap trade nets a PG.
Jamal Tinsley has fought to get back to the NBA after being involved in a shooting in 2009. Even if he jumps ahead of Watson on the depth chart, he still can’t shoot the basketball.
DeMarre Carroll will struggle just to get on the court.
High Risk/High Reward
Enes Kanter played limited minutes last year and had little impact. He could show big improvement though since he sat the entire previous season awaiting the draft.
Alec Burks was effectively an afterthought for the Jazz last year as he routinely sat in favor of the washed up Raja Bell and Josh Howard. He has the talent to carve out a more significant role this season especially if he can improve his 3P shot.
Portland Trailblazers
There was a time when the Blazers were considered the best-run franchise in the NBA. Ever since their ill-fated decision to draft Greg Oden over Kevin Durant, Portland has become the bizzaro Thunder. With a front office mired in turmoil, they have suffered several devastating injuries, made several questionable player personnel decisions, squandered cap space and in the process got progressively worse. After becoming one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA, they started to turn it around last year and now expect to run like the rest of the division, led by their new shiny toy, Damian Lillard.
To continue the fantasy analogies, the Trailblazers are like a rebuilding keeper-league team, having kept a relatively young core in LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum and Wesley Matthews, used their first pick on an untested rookie, Lillard, and then filling out the rest of the roster with anyone who may have upside no matter how limited and unproven, including Adam Morrison. Better luck next year.
Like the rest of the Northwest, there is no shortage of intriguing fantasy options.
Best to Own
LaMarcus Aldridge continued to improve and is now a solid top 10 option and a relative bargain at his ADP of 15. I expect even more scoring and rebounds this year as Portland continues upping its pace.
Nicolas Batum is still young, improving and could see an increase in his minutes from 30.4 but is becoming overrated with an ADP in the mid-30’s effectively pricing in his potential improvement. That blatant punch in the Olympics casts a black cloud on his character.
Solid Contributors
Wesley Matthews is essentially just another scorer with a bad FG% (41.2%), but I expect that FG% to improve to match his much better 3P% (38.3%) and FT% (86%). His ADP of 70 prices in that improvement.
Sleepers
J.J. Hickson has my money for who wins the Portland C job even though he lacks the BLK to provide above average value as a C but can be an excellent source for rebounds.
Players to Avoid
Jared Jeffries couldn’t produce meangingful numbers in the helter skelter of the Knicks, how is he going to do it with a slower paced team that is clearly in a youth movement?
Sasha Pavlovic gets another kick at the can but his age will deny him of a meaningful opportunity in Portland.
Ronnie Price see Jared Jeffries above but substitute Knicks for Jazz.
Adam Morrison gets another opportunity after Elliott Williams went down with a season ending injury. He is the symbol for the flip side to the upside coin.
High Risk/High Reward
Damian Lillard’s pros and cons were noted by Bruce Wrigley here. His ADP in the late 90’s is not too expensive but not cheap either.
Victor Claver/Luke Babbitt Portland’s first round picks in 2009 and 2010 have the chance to become the first wing option off the bench.
Meyers Leonard/Joel Freeland will challenge Hickson and Jeffries for minutes at the C and could be a cheap source of BLK if either can carve out a meaningful role.
Nolan Smith is plan B if Lillard fails to adjust.
Will Barton The 40th pick in the 2012 draft just may be able to carve out a role with the Trailblazers, who will give any kid a chance. Could he be that annual second-round pick that everyone missed?
Minnesota Timberwolves
For all the missteps taken by the current Wolves management, they have somehow backed into an exciting team that seems on the verge of a Grizzlies-like breakout. The emergence of Ricky Rubio and Nikola Pekovic hopefully solved two problems and offseason additions of Andrei Kirilenko, Alexey Shved, Brandon Roy and Chase Budinger might be able to solve the other two positions, making this version of the Wolves the deepest and most balanced team in the team’s history — including the Kevin Garnett era.
Expect a slow start as the various pieces start to gel and for the team to improve just as Rubio returns. The issue here for fantasy owners is that with so many options, we have no idea what the rotation will look like in late December or beyond. Unfortunately, these types of rotation uncertainties sometimes just don’t go away and it ends up being very hard to roster anyone. Just look at the 2010-11 versions of these same T-Wolves. In other words, these Wolves may just be like a fantasy roster hell bent on streaming. There is a lot to love but for many, consistent minutes may be hard to come by.
Best to Own
Kevin Love is clearly the best PF/C option in the NBA and depending on league rules could go anywhere from 1st to 4th. Any allusion to rotation confusion does not apply here. Draft with confidence.
Ricky Rubio, on a per-game basis delivered mid-40’s value last year. His current ADP is close to 100, a more than sufficient discount considering that he will miss a quarter to a third of the season and may require some time to find his sea legs. A great stash option for keeper and shallow leagues.
Solid Contributors
Luke Ridnour played more minutes than anyone expected last year and delivered a solid season ranking 29th per game for all PG eligible players. He will lose minutes this year but is a good value at his 140 ADP.
Sleepers
Nikola Pekovic burst onto the scene last year and delivered 80’s value on a per game basis. Now that he is healthy and has the C job to himself, he should improve on those numbers and is a grand bargain at his current ADP in the 120’s.
Andrei Kirilenko may be a bit of a forgotten man at the draft table this year but he was one of the best sources of the hard to find STL and BLK categories before his hiatus.
Alexey Shved I have no new insight here, just a warm and fuzzy feeling that by the end of the year, he will be the Wolves third-best player. He has had a tremendous impact on the Russian national team.
Players to Avoid
J.J. Barea was a bust as a free agent signing after playing over his head in the 2011 playoffs. Despite his nice finish to 2012, it looks like the Wolves have moved on and so should you.
Chase Budinger was the first of five wing players added by the Wolves this offseason. He is a decent 3PT shooter and rebounder for a guard who finds ways to get to the line but he is a defensive liability. It appears as though the Wolves developed an instant case of buyers’ remorse.
Robbie Hummel I thought was an inspired second-round selection after watching him battle in the tournament for Purdue, but the Wolves after their wing splurge had him thinking Europe. Then he sprained his knee and is out for the first two months of the year. At least he gets to talk to Brandon Roy for rehab advice.
Dante Cunningham is an effective back-up forward but sits behind Love and Derrick Williams on the depth chart and unlikely to get meaningful minutes.
Louis Amundson signed yesterday and will battle with Cunningham for the same limited minutes.
Malclom Lee who barely saw the court last year, will find it nigh impossible this year.
High Risk/High Reward
Brandon Roy is the quintessential high risk/high reward player. His 130’s ADP is too rich for me as I expect that his minutes will be limited not only by his knees (everyone feels great after a year and half off) but by Shved as well.
Derrick Williams underwhelmed last season as Michael Beasley essentially played his position. He could fulfill his potential or stay a tweener. His high profile likely raises his price tag above my tastes.
Greg Stiemsma does one thing really well. He blocks shots, a lot of shots, as in 1.5 BLK in just 14 minutes a game. If anything were to happen to Pekovic …
For the introduction to this article and our comments on the Thunder and Nuggets see Part I.