Putting the Primer into Practice
Let’s illustrate the lessons of the Primer by applying them to an actual fantasy team. For this purpose, I chose a last place team I inherited this offseason in a 20-team keeper league. Due to some subsequent issues in that league (and a lesson in how draft pick trading can go wrong), six owners ended up being replaced instead of one and there was a dispersal draft. I got second pick in the dispersal draft but 19th pick in the regular draft, which is scheduled for this Tuesday. Before I review the team I inherited, here are the league’s settings.
Analyzing the League Settings
First of all it is a keeper league (you keep four, for a maximum of 3 years). This implies that despite the daunting prospects, we are going for it this year. It also fortunately means that rookies and prospects will be moved up in the draft, leaving some nice veteran value for us to pick up.
The league uses the head-to-head format so we are going to emphasize the short term over the long term. Since it is a 20-teamer with 14-man rosters, it is very deep and thus warrants a risk-averse strategy. There are no transaction or games played limits, so streaming is a viable strategy.
All of this is further emphasized by the very short bench of 2 versus 12 starting positions (2xPG, 2x SG, 2x SF, 2x PF, 2x C, 2x Util). In sum, we want to target safe, healthy veterans who will get significant playing time out of the gate.
The scoring settings have some unique qualities. First it uses AST/TO instead of TO, therefore removing the disincentive for PG’s. It also uses both OR and DR instead of just REB, slightly favoring the PF/C’s. Most importantly though it counts FGM and FTM in addition to FG%, FT% and PTS, giving most weight to scorers. The specialist categories of 3PM, AST, STL and BLK are also included but are somewhat diluted, given the extra rebounding and scoring components.
My strategy is to favor is the rate categories (FG%, FT% and A/TO), downgrade the specialist categories of 3PM and BLK since I can address those with streaming, and give some extra weight to FTM, AST and STL since they are more variable and harder to come by than the pure volume stats of PTS, OR and DR. All of which means I want to overrate PG’s in this format and underweight the PF/C’s.
The Keepers
After the dispersal draft, my keepers consisted of Deron Williams, Monta Ellis, Tyreke Evans and Thaddeus Young. Not bad for an inherited roster, but as you can see there is a dramatic drop off between the third and fourth pick. I particularly like what Evans does given this format and while he is a not a keeper, I have mentioned Young a couple of times in this primer as an efficient player to target (in Part 3) and as a sleeper (in Part 4) and so I am willing to go war with him.
Williams and Ellis were both heading into the final year of their contracts, so I traded them for Dwayne Wade and Andre Iguodala. They were the two most comparable players I could acquire but the trades came at a strategic cost. Williams is a safer pick than Wade and excels in the categories I want to emphasize. While I really like the prospects of Iguodala in Denver and his PG-like stats, I gave up a lot of scoring and Ellis’ PG eligibility, a cost I didn’t fully understand until I assembled my draft plan.
Using projected stats, I ran a set of simulated standings and my keepers ranked 14th out of 20, excelling in STL and AST/TO but faring poorly in OR and DR and worse than I would like in FG%, FTM and FT%.
WOW just what I was looking for. Came here by
searching for Fantasy
dialogue about this piece of writing at this place at this
webpage, I have read all that, so at this time me also commenting at this place.|
I am sure this post has touched all the internet users,
its really really good article on building up new
blog.|
Wow, this post is pleasant, my sister is analyzing these things, so I
am going to convey her.|
bookmarked!!, I really like your website!|
Way cool! Some extremely valid points! I appreciate you
coach purse outlet online
Nice post but that’s Eric Maynor on the pic.
Thanks. It has been fun to write and share my thoughts.
I am not sure playing a draft with your cards face up is that much of a disadvantage. When I was novice I used to worry what others were doing but that only distracts you from what your team needs. The beauty of a good plan is flexibility. Despite my concerns about PG value, I still identified multiple options for four round pairs. I also have at least one option from each position for every pick. It will take an organized effort to thwart this plan. And, If my queue gets emptied, it usually means someone else fell below where I expected. The only league where my queues routinely gets emptied and I have to go off plan is BBFL and my solution is usually just bring the plan forward a round.
As a follow-up, my draft went pretty much as per plan. I was pleasantly surprised to get both Nikola Pekovic and Rodney Stuckey with my first and second picks. I did grab the targeted Byron Mullens in the 3rd round and since I had already addressed my main needs took the best available player in 4th who turned out to be Tony Allen. In the fifth, Jarrett Jack was the only of my targeted PG to fall (but that’s all I needed) and I took Danny Green as my other SG/SF. I didn’t expect him to be there and my preferred choice Marvin Williams was long gone. For the 7th and 8th I drafted Kosta Koufos and Tyler Zeller of my C list, who were preferred options 2 and 3. Option 1, Enes Kanter was drafted several rounds earlier. My final pairing included another C from the list, Brandan Wright and Mirza Teletovic, who I targeted for the third round but his pre-season struggles obviously hurt his stock (and was why I passed on him twice earlier when I was considering SF options). He represents that unique combination of value, upside and disappointment. In a word, it was a ‘safe’ draft, which was the goal. I am not jumping for joy but nor am I crying either.
My team as a whole did improve significantly. I have 14 players from 13 different teams (the one double up is Denver!), and at least 4 players eligible at every position except PG where I only have 3. Using the same projected stats, my team jumped from 14th to a virtual 4-way tie for second. I did overcompensate and added too much FG%, FTM and FT% at the expense of AST and A/TO. The only category where I really struggle is 3PM. Using Teletovic’s roster spot for streaming 3P specialist’s (especially with PG eligibility) is now the obvious in season tactical play though I will give to Teletovic a couple of weeks to see if he can get his shot to fall before resorting to that.
Jeff, this entire series has been great. Always knew you were a tough opponent, now I understand why. Many of your strategies were things I already did instinctively, but a few of my instincts were counter-productive — thanks for the advice!
Revealing your strategy for an upcoming draft was very generous. Not only are Bruce and I in that league, but several other sharks will be taking notes. My keepers there aren’t the greatest, but I did stockpile three of those controversial draft picks and will have a deep team if all goes well.
I’d reveal my draft plan if I had one. Mostly it’s “best available” with a slight emphasis on PG and C. As I don’t pick in the last three rounds, there won’t be as much focus on the sleepers I collected in the Elimination league. You can probably get Shved.