Building the Draft Plan
As a result of the above analysis, there are two priorities for the draft plan to address. The first is the lack of a C and the corresponding rebounding. The second is finding a second and third PG behind Wade, preferably with above-average FG%, FTM and FT%.
In regards to adding a C, the best case scneario is if Nikola Pekovic would fall to me in round 1 but I view that as unlikely as he is in the top 12 on my list of non-keepers and my first pick is 19. Bruce Wrigley also touted him on Thursday. More likely to be available is DeAndre Jordan, who presents an intriguing dilemma. He has everything you look for in a fantasy C but his FT% (though he only attempts 2 FT per game) and AST/TO are killers. I would want to pair this pick with a quality PG but I will describe that challenge below.
An alternative option is to wait for two rounds and hope that a Jonas Valanciunas or Omer Asik is still available. Both have similar potential to Jordan, though Valanciunas doesn’t have the FT% issues. More interestingly though, I can avoid the C issue until the last four rounds and go for a volume approach. This last option dovetails nicely with the streaming BLK specialists strategy discussed above and the league settings. I see at least a dozen intriguing options who should be available in the final four rounds including Lavoy Allen, Andray Blatche, Andre Drummond, Festus Ezeli, Brendan Haywood, Enes Kanter, Kosta Koufos, Robin Lopez, Ian Mahinmi, Kevin Seraphin, Greg Stiemsma, Tyrus Thomas, Epke Udoh, Brendan Wright and Tyler Zeller.
The second priority is finding two PG eligibles. Unlike the C position, I don’t see nearly the same amount of intriguing late round options (aside from taking a flyer on Charles Jenkins or Maalik Wayns and in this league we want to avoid flyers) and therefore this priority must be addressed early. In terms of relative value, my two favorite PG options are Alexey Shved and Devin Harris. In a dream scenario both would fall to their current ADP and be available for me at the turn in Round 5. But that is unlikely, especially since I know that Kent is likely to snag Shved just before my pick in Round 5 as he did in our elimination draft. He has also been touting Harris in the Fantasy Spin. Andre Miller and Jarrett Jack would also be decent values here as well and they could fall as far as Harris. So planning on taking one PG in Round 5 seems reasonable.
This means that I must address the other PG with one of my first four picks. The dream scenario would see either Isaiah Thomas or Rodney Stuckey fall to me in Round 1 or 2. Again, I see that as rather unlikely since both are in the top 15 of my non-keepers. A more likely target is George Hill, who Bruce targeted in both elimination and at a recent auction but he is still not a sure thing. My preferred values for round 3/4 are Mario Chalmers and Jose Calderon, but I’d rather avoid Chalmers for diversity reasons (don’t want 2 Heat at PG) and Calderon is unlikely to fall that far. So, I am left with either taking Hill in round 1/2 or moving Shved up 40 picks to round 3/4 (this is the real drawback of drafting on the turn, you have move guys up two rounds instead of just one). Either way, I have to overpay for my second PG and this is why losing Ellis’ PG eligibility was so costly.
Now that those two priorities have been addressed, I can go about filling out the rest of the draft plan. Since I am drafting on the turn, I like to take both picks from the same group. Ultimately, as the best players likely to still be on the board, I expect to take one or two of Gordon Hayward, Andrei Kirilenko or Kawhi Leonard with my first two picks, with Hill and Jordan as potential options.
The next pair will be amongst Valanciunas, Asik, Shved and power forwards Taj Gibson, Spencer Hawes, Byron Mullens and Mirza Teletovic. The third pair will hopefully include a PG amongst Harris, Jack, Miller and Shved and a shooter amongst Chase Budinger, Landry Fields, Gerald Henderson and Marvin Williams. If I still don’t have a C and if Gustavo Ayon were still available, he would be very tempting here too.
The fourth pair includes Delonte West or Beno Udrih as fail-safes if I am not able to grab one of my preferred PGs in the previous round, Ben Gordon, Gerald Green or Richard Hamilton if I do grab a C in the earlier rounds, and the list of C’s above. The fifth and final pair will almost certainly be from that list of C’s.
There you have a simple and relatively easy to execute draft plan that focuses on value and addresses balance, diversity and redundancy.
Thank you for reading our Fantasy Basketball Primer. I hope you enjoyed it. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to tweet us @SheridanFantasy.
Next Saturday at this time, we will kick off our regular weekly planner, where we will review the highlights from the pre-season, update our depth chart, walk you through the opening games and highlight some sits and starts for the opening week.
Thanks to Keith Allison for the photos of Thabo Sefolosha and DeAndre Jordan.
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Nice post but that’s Eric Maynor on the pic.
Thanks. It has been fun to write and share my thoughts.
I am not sure playing a draft with your cards face up is that much of a disadvantage. When I was novice I used to worry what others were doing but that only distracts you from what your team needs. The beauty of a good plan is flexibility. Despite my concerns about PG value, I still identified multiple options for four round pairs. I also have at least one option from each position for every pick. It will take an organized effort to thwart this plan. And, If my queue gets emptied, it usually means someone else fell below where I expected. The only league where my queues routinely gets emptied and I have to go off plan is BBFL and my solution is usually just bring the plan forward a round.
As a follow-up, my draft went pretty much as per plan. I was pleasantly surprised to get both Nikola Pekovic and Rodney Stuckey with my first and second picks. I did grab the targeted Byron Mullens in the 3rd round and since I had already addressed my main needs took the best available player in 4th who turned out to be Tony Allen. In the fifth, Jarrett Jack was the only of my targeted PG to fall (but that’s all I needed) and I took Danny Green as my other SG/SF. I didn’t expect him to be there and my preferred choice Marvin Williams was long gone. For the 7th and 8th I drafted Kosta Koufos and Tyler Zeller of my C list, who were preferred options 2 and 3. Option 1, Enes Kanter was drafted several rounds earlier. My final pairing included another C from the list, Brandan Wright and Mirza Teletovic, who I targeted for the third round but his pre-season struggles obviously hurt his stock (and was why I passed on him twice earlier when I was considering SF options). He represents that unique combination of value, upside and disappointment. In a word, it was a ‘safe’ draft, which was the goal. I am not jumping for joy but nor am I crying either.
My team as a whole did improve significantly. I have 14 players from 13 different teams (the one double up is Denver!), and at least 4 players eligible at every position except PG where I only have 3. Using the same projected stats, my team jumped from 14th to a virtual 4-way tie for second. I did overcompensate and added too much FG%, FTM and FT% at the expense of AST and A/TO. The only category where I really struggle is 3PM. Using Teletovic’s roster spot for streaming 3P specialist’s (especially with PG eligibility) is now the obvious in season tactical play though I will give to Teletovic a couple of weeks to see if he can get his shot to fall before resorting to that.
Jeff, this entire series has been great. Always knew you were a tough opponent, now I understand why. Many of your strategies were things I already did instinctively, but a few of my instincts were counter-productive — thanks for the advice!
Revealing your strategy for an upcoming draft was very generous. Not only are Bruce and I in that league, but several other sharks will be taking notes. My keepers there aren’t the greatest, but I did stockpile three of those controversial draft picks and will have a deep team if all goes well.
I’d reveal my draft plan if I had one. Mostly it’s “best available” with a slight emphasis on PG and C. As I don’t pick in the last three rounds, there won’t be as much focus on the sleepers I collected in the Elimination league. You can probably get Shved.