We completely agree that negative categories are terrible, but Jeff has a way to deal with turnovers that (not surprisingly) makes more sense than any I’ve read. It was his explanation of why rate categories are more important than counting stats that really turned on the old light bulb. Some of his advice agreed with my instinctive approach, but it’s always better to understand why a particular tactic works.
Sleepers
“As a group, fantasy players are always on the lookout for the next big thing,” Jeff said in Part 4. “It is ingrained in our DNA. This not only causes us to overrate young players with potential, but also to underrate older players because we fear their potential decline.”
Guilty as charged. He also identified “the ‘burn me once, shame on you, burn me twice, shame on me’ phenomenon,” another of my biggest faults. Intellectually, it’s ridiculous to think Manu Ginobili will break his shooting hand again this year. Still, I kept him with some reluctance in one league, and would have traded him for less than his market value, just to avoid déjà vu disappointment.
Over the years in some tough leagues, it’s always surprised me how often Jeff’s method of identifying ‘breakout’ players intersects with my own. He takes the age, minutes and stats of a group of players and ranks them; I tend to focus on changing circumstances and less-tangible evidence.
In Part 5, on planning for a draft, it became clear how much more thought he has put into this game than most of us.
“I like to break-up my draft plan into four distinct parts: First round, the top (where the talent gap is the widest), the middle (where it exists but is not meaningful) and the bottom (where it doesn’t exist at all).”
He drafts from one list, then three lists, then starts targeting players for certain positions, to balance strengths and weaknesses. Only in the endgame does he employ the style I’ve been using for years: draft upside, and go with your gut.
Jeff’s auction strategies in are also informative, and while I don’t play in any auction hoops leagues, I’m looking forward to 2013 baseball already, ready to atone for a couple of horrible drafts last season.
Not only did Part 6 tell us how to put the Primer lessons into practice, anyone in our league who bothered to read it knew in advance where Jeff would take Nikola Pekovic — one pick before mine, dammit — on Friday. Playing our “hole cards” face up hasn’t been as big an issue as I expected; most people have their own ways to prepare and never think about scouting opponents.
It helped me a little to have an idea what one other owner might be thinking, but the real benefit of the Primer for me was improved confidence. With greater awareness of my options and a flexible draft plan, I felt one round ahead all night, instead of one round behind.
Learning how to fine-tune my draft plan (and why) was the capper to a superb series. Over 13,500 words, in six articles, it’s a tremendous asset to any fantasy player. I’ve been doing this for 20 years, with considerable success, and can’t believe how much I didn’t know. If you’re relatively new to fantasy sports, it’s absolutely a must-read.
Not content to rest on his laurels, Jeff is our go-to guy for strategy advice every Saturday afternoon. Don’t set your Week 1 lineups without checking his Opening Week Preview, which includes a schedule analysis, Sits & Starts and the latest updates to our Depth Chart.
My take on James Harden trade – http://mikezanity.com/2012/10/james-harden-traded-to-houston-rockets-good-trade-or-not/
As detailed as Jeff Nichols’ series was, it’s a stretch to think anyone with a ‘life’, i.e. wife, job, kids, school commitments, etc. would have been able to absorb all 13,500 + words.
And your column was just a rehash, if not lovefast of everything Nichols wrote.
Please, let the readers decide how best to apply any of what he wrote to their own fantasy requirements.
Also, please, be more concise in your opinions.
I’m not questioning your expertise, but at this rate I get more info is less time by reading Rotoworld’s daily ‘player news’ category with appropriate links.
The season hasn’t started, but at the rate you are writing, I get the impression your fantasy staff will be exhausted by Feb. 1, either with writers’ cramps or sore-handed from patting each other on the back so much.