Lesson #2: Wings: Rodney Stuckey, Shawn Marion and Manu Ginobili
Rodney Stuckey
The player that we get the most distressed tweets on is Rodney Stuckey and for good reason. He started the season off with disastrous aim, going 1 for 24 in his first three games. His next four games were better (but still bad) at 16 for 49. It is only in his last two games that he has started to find the mark, going 11 for 20, but there was a DNP-Flu in between. Overall, his shooting percentage is an A.J. Price-like 30.4%. One of the reasons for the poor performance is that he seems to be settling for jumpers instead of attacking the basket. He is taking one more 3 and getting to the line half as much as his career norms, but that doesn’t fully explain it as his 3P% and FT% are also below his career marks.
Looking at his game log, he has developed a bit of ‘good game then bad game’-itis. Alternating between plus 15-point and sub-10-point performances. Guess in which ones he has been getting to the line? I am stressing free throw shooting here because that is Stuckey’s superior skill and without it, he will struggle to score.
To make matters worse for his fantasy owners (I own him on half my teams), he approached his coach yesterday and volunteered to come off the bench. There isn’t a bigger sign for lost confidence. His coach agreed because it gives him ‘the opportunity to play him off the ball more’. Uh-oh! I want to see Stuckey with the ball in his hands, attacking the rim and getting fouled.
His replacement in the starting line-up is Kyle Singler, who has exceeded all expectations and scored 16 and 14 in two games as the starter. Despite his early success, I don’t expect Singler to be able to hold onto the job. His value is tied entirely to his efficient scoring (50% FG) and his history of sharp shooting is very short. In his four-year career at Duke, he never shot over 40% in any season. He doesn’t rebound, pass or rack up the defensive stats enough to own in Roto or H2H except in deep leagues. Oh, and he also has a very high foul rate for a guard of 5.2 per 48 minutes.
Bringing this back to Stuckey, I am holding him in my leagues that count free throws made in the hope that he turns it around but if your league doesn’t, I suggest dropping him until he can get to the line consistently. I also would look somewhere else than Singler for a replacement.
Shawn Marion
I am guessing many a fantasy owner dropped Shawn Marion after he injured his knee, because he has become a popular suggested add. Marion is the type of safe choice ideal for deep H2H and roto formats. He is the opposite of Singler in that his value is in his rebounding, passing and defensive skills which fluctuate less from game-to-game than do shooting stats. So far this year in five games, he is averaging 7.7 reb, 3.2 ast, 0.4 stl and 1 blk. Those are very much in line with what he did last year when he averaged 7.4 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.1 stl and .6 blk.
His scoring is down from 10.4 pts to 6.8 pts but that I think we can write that off to small sample size and the influence of a couple of uncharacteristically poor shooting performances.
Marion’s real value though is the fact that he is an integral part of a good team and he is guaranteed to get minutes and touches. You win championships with these kind of players. If you dropped him, pick him back up.
Manu Ginobili
Let’s get the obvious out of the way. Manu Ginobili is getting old (35 years) and is seemingly chronically injured, including a bad back to start this year. He also plays on a deep team that doesn’t really need him until the playoffs. Injured or not, his minutes are going to be limited. This year he has averaged only 21.4 per game and last year he was limited to 23.3. It doesn’t matter how good you are, it will be hard for anyone to put up big counting numbers with so few minutes.
Taking a closer look though, you see a player in steady decline who put up one amazing number last year. He shot 52.4% from the field. This arrested a steady decline from his previous high of 47.1% in 2004-05. By 2010-11, he was down to 43.3%. If you haven’t already, let me spell it out for you, F-L-U-K-E. So far this year, Ginobili is back on his path of FG% decline shooting just 37.3%. We can expect that to rise as it is heavily influenced by some awful 3P shooting of 16.7%, by far a career worst. As a result, his per-48-minute scoring is down from 26.7 in 2011-12 to 18.9 in 2012-13 — not good for a player with limited minutes. We can expect both his FG% and per-48-minute scoring to rise, but you can forget 2011-12 levels.
In addition to the shooting, we see a couple of other troubling trends. His per-48-minute turnover rate has spiked to a career worst of 6.8 (his next worst season was 4.2 in 2007-08) and his foul rate is up to levels we haven’t seen since 2005-06. Both of these reflect a player with declining skills.
Don’t drop him just yet. He has a two-week window to change your mind. San Antonio’s starting small forward, Kawhi Leonard is out with knee tendinitis and Manu should be given a couple more minutes (the bulk will go to Stephen Jackson and I expect Patrick Mills to see some as well). Watch closely, then decide.
Lesson #3: Bigs: Omer Asik, Carlos Boozer and Andre Drummond
Omer Asik
Omer Asik is having a breakout season and must be owned in all formats. The only reason to doubt him coming into this season was a lack of scoring and poor FT%. Going from 14.7 mpg to 33. 3 solves most of the scoring issue, but so does almost doubling your field goal attempts per 48 minutes from 7.7 to 12.5. The 12.5 fgapg is still low enough that it is more likely to go up than down.
The FT% issue is also resolved, as is he shooting 73.7% on 38 attempts. Even is he regresses from here, he should be able to keep the number north of 60% and thus won’t kill your FT%.
Asik is only 26 years old, possesses a reputation as a future defensive player of the year and has no internal challengers to his minutes. The 11.1 ppg, 13. 2 rpg and 1.2 bpg are studly numbers and should not be doubted.
Carlos Boozer
I just don’t understand the distrust of Carlos Boozer out there. He is as safe a 15 ppg and 8 rpg candidate as there is, having achieved that level every year of his career since his rookie season in 2002-03. For those who can’t count, that is a decade of above-average fantasy numbers. To make matters even better in those 10 years, he has never shot below 49% and averages 53.5% for his career. Oh, and just for his fantasy owners, he kicks in a steal per game. What’s not to love?
The only thing I can think of for the mistrust is small-sample blindness. He had a couple of bad games where he went 1 for 8 and 0 for 5. Don’t look at the 9 and 7 rebounds he got in those games or the 18 and 19 point performances immediately before. Anyway, I think Boozer did a good enough job shutting down his critics with a 28 point, 14 rebound performance in his latest game. Buy with confidence.
Andre Drummond
Pistons No. 1 draft pick Andre Drummond
Like with Manu Ginobili, let’s get the obvious with Andre Drummond out the way. He’s a 19-year-old rookie playing the most physical position in the game. He is going to struggle. His minutes, confidence and conditioning all have to be managed. And, every once in a while, everything is going to click like it did on November 9 with 22 points and 8 boards in 21 minutes.
As a result, Drummond is a second-half play in fantasy. The question is, should you hold onto him until then? This largely depends on your league’s format and your ambitions. It is much easier to hold on to him in Roto, deep bench and keeper leagues than it is in the redraft H2H format. If you got off to a hot start and can afford to stash someone, he makes a great candidate. If you need to make up points today and can’t wait for tomorrow, you should move on.
As a stash candidate, there is a lot to like. His adjustment has gone far better than anyone could have predicted, both in the pre-season and through 10 games. He is shooting a monster 69.2%, basically proving that he can dunk in the NBA. He is also showing his worth on the glass with 14.6 reb per 48 minutes (not Asik territory but respectable) and with 3.5 blocks. Both of these will improve with more minutes as he gets into the flow of the game and builds strength and cunning.
Lastly, the door is wide open for him to get those minutes. His team is rebuilding and incentivized to play their young players when they are ready. And, the current holder of those minutes, Jason Maxiell is not an impediment. Whether you add Drummond is going to depend on your team but he looks like a keeper to me. I would definitely stash him over a long term injured like Danny Granger.