Lesson #2: What is going on with Andrew Bynum, Brandon Roy and Andrew Bogut?
One of the worst aspects of dealing with injured players is the mystery surrounding their injuries, especially conflicting reports. When looking at these reports, you have to consider the source and draw your own conclusion.
Andrew Bynum
A case in point is the mystery wrapped in bowling ball spin disinfected with shoe spray that is Andrew Bynum’s knees. A scary piece of news emerged this week that Bynum’s is likely out for the season. The source was a ‘respected orthopedic surgeon’ who has never met Andrew Bynum, let alone one of his knees or seen an x-ray or MRI of them. His educated opinion was based on the various pieces information released by the 76ers to date.
We have to take these stories with a grain of salt. This is not a team doctor, official or the player himself. This is a diagnosis based at best on incomplete information. It may be true but we can’t act on it.
If you did draft Bynum, you can not cut him based on a story like the one above. There is too much potential for mis-diagnosis and he simply has too much potential. If he is not an elite player, he is nearly one and fantasy owners must factor that into their decision. You will never forgive yourself, if you cut him based on an unreliable story and he ends playing 2/3 of the season. You are basically stuck holding until something more definitive emerges.
If he has been cut, good ahead and pick him up as a stash candidate but do so with the knowledge that there is a very real chance that he may not play a game this year. You must also factor in his long injury history and the chronic nature of the injury. If he does return, he is unlikely to return as the player he was. In other words, don’t trade or cut someone of value to acquire him.
Brandon Roy
This is a sad story. Brandon Roy was a great player with weak knees. He played as hard and for as long as he could on the knees he had and then tried to play longer and harder with the aid of the surgical knife. But all signs now point to the fact that he simply can’t play anymore.
After a year of rest, one can imagine Roy picking up a ball for a casual game of hoops with friends and finding out that he still loved the game and felt better than he expected. So, he started working out, signed a deal and pursued the dream of playing in the NBA again. Things looked great at first. He enjoyed being with the guys, started to feel his old mojo again and while he felt pain, he also felt it dissipate. So, he kept pushing himself and you drafted him so you could have your tiny bit of the dream, too. And, then the pain stopped going away.
After an eleventh procedure on his knees, Roy admitted that he has degenerative arthiritis – his knees will never be without pain short of replacement surgery and that his career is likely done, for good this time.
While he hasn’t officially retired yet and is back to rehabbing, it is time that we wish him well and let him go from our fantasy rosters in all formats. His performance just isn’t good enough to hold on the very unlikely chance that he defies the odds just one more time.
Andrew Bogut
Bogut broke his ankle in gruesome play in December 2011. Following surgery and a long rehab, he still wasn’t ready to play for the start of training camp – this did not come as a surprise given the significant nature of the injury. Golden State hoped he would be ready for the start of the season and planned on that basis. He wasn’t fit enough to play in any pre-season games but still debuted on Halloween night. He was noticeably limping and was limited to just 18 minutes.
He lasted just two games before requiring a night off, the second of a back-to-back. After two more games he was shutdown indefinitely. His ankle wasn’t improving, his limp was getting worse and his play suffered.
Three days ago, we got an update. Bogut is planning to return to practice on Monday and could return to game action shortly thereafter. That all sounds positive but until the ankle is tested, we just don’t know where Bogut’s health is at. The fear is that the ankle is simply not sound. Either Bogut will miss a significant portion of the season or if he plays his mobility is going to be so limited that he will not be effective at least in fantasy.
The question for fantasy owners is whether Bogut is worth a roster spot. I think his situation is similar to Nene’s before he returned. Given the potential short timeline before we get a better read on his health, he makes for a worthwhile speculative add. The upside is that he delivers something akin to his historical production. The downside is that he will always be a couple of weeks away and cost you a roster spot. If he suffers another setback, let him go – he’s not worth the agony.
Lesson #3: Trust your stars
A poor start by one of your early picks causes an unusual angst amongst fantasy players. The weak show their desperation and either bail or deal at a discount. The strong show patience and may be even show some tactical genius by taking advantage of others desperation. Those who bailed on Paul George, Roy Hibbert or Klay Thompson or traded Josh Smith or Ty Lawson are smarting after Wednesday’s games. You simply can’t abandon your high draft picks in fantasy except for injury or major change in role.
When faced with such angst, we have to remind ourselves that it has only been 10 games. Bad games happen and in a small sample, a couple of bad games can have an unusual effect on a player’s numbers. This is particularly true for shooting percentages.
If a player you own a player is struggling and you want to know whether this is a temporary or an enduring level, you have look beyond point totals and shooting percentages to the rest of their game. Are they taking shots? Getting to the line? Active on the boards or defensively? If these numbers are generally in line with expectations, you can write-off the poor start as simply bad luck.
You have reason to be concerned if the per minute numbers are down and the minutes trending down as well. A good example is Ersan Ilyasova. His per 48 minute FGA hasn’t changed but his rebounds are down from 15.3 to 10, his steals are down from 1.3 to 0.2 and his blocks are down from 1.2 to 0.6. And, his minutes have fallen to just 16.5 in his last two games.
Lastly, you must ask yourself if is there a reason for the poor performance? Is he still recovering from an injury or maybe playing out of position? If you can’t find any, then you have cause to be concerned. I can’t find any reason behind Ilyasova’s fall from grace thus have no reason to believe that he will improve with more time. In standard leagues, you can’t be faulted for letting him go.