Schedule Analysis
The New Year kicks off with a heavy schedule. Thursday is the only day with less than five games and Wednesday, Friday and Saturday are near full slates. There are no teams with five games this week but there is one team with only two, the Golden State Warriors. To make matters worse both of those games are against the team with the best record in the NBA, the Los Angeles Clippers. If you play in weekly formats, sit your Warriors. That said, if I were in Vegas, I might consider taking Golden State in a parlay. They have already beaten the Clippers once this year and get them on the back side of two back-to-backs. I am also firmly on the Warriors bandwagon.
Three teams have four games on the road this week. The 76ers might just have the toughest weekly schedule of the year with four games in five nights including @LAL, @OKC and @SAS. The Trailblazers, who are a completely different team on the road also have a rough stretch with four in five including @NYK, @MEM and @MIN. The Kings are the other team taking their circus to the road but @BKN is the only game against a club with a better than .355 winning percentage.
To balance things out, Detroit, Orlando and Toronto get that sweet home cooking this week. The Raptors have won 7 of 8 and have Kyle Lowry back but this time bringing scoring, energy and toughness to the second unit. Their first two games are very winnable before the challenge of facing OKC. To quote coach Dwayne Casey, they are now only 3.5 feet deep from their 4 foot hole. The Magic are trending in the opposite direction having lost all five since Big Baby Glen Davis went down. Now Jameer Nelson is hobbling, too. They could easily lose all three homers this week.
I like the Thunder’s schedule this week with home games against the bad PHO, the confused BKN and the fading PHI before taking on @TOR. The Heat are fantasy friendly too with @ORL before DAL, CHI and WAS.
Finally, last week saw some notable returns from injury, including Dirk Nowitzki, Eric Gordon and Hedo Turkoglu. This week should feature the return of Amar’e Stoudemire, Avery Bradley and possibly John Wall.
Some games of note include:
MEM @ IND on Monday. This is a match-up the league’s two best defences at least in terms of points allowed and no one else is particularly close. These teams are near mirror images of each other with dominant Centers, scoring power forwards, do everything small forwards, facilitating point guards and short benches. I give Memphis the edge on talent but Indiana is playing in the easier conference and at home. Either way, don’t expect any big fantasy numbers.
PHI @ LAL on Tuesday. This New Years game was supposed to feature the return of Andrew Bynum to Los Angeles but he has just started to increase his activity. Instead Dwight Howard should feast on the undersized Lavoy Allen and the under-motivated Kwame Brown. Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner also make for interesting defensive match-ups on Steve Nash and Kobe Bryant. Maybe most intriguing to fantasy players will be the Pau Gasol versus Thaddeus Young match-up. Can Gasol turn it around in 2013? Can Young continue his breakout? He is now ranked in the top 20 by Yahoo!
HOU @ MIL on Friday. While to others this may be a boring match-up of two middling teams, fantasy players know better as both of theses teams feature some of the better fantasy match-ups like James Harden and Monta Ellis or Brandon Jennings and Jeremy Lin but also the more subtle ones like the tall and strong Omer Asik against the athletic Larry Sanders in the middle. I am also intrigued by the Chandler Parsons and Mike Dunleavy match-up, who to my eyes have very similar styles of play despite the different stages of their careers.
WAS @ MIA on Sunday: A complete mismatch on paper, but a month to the day earlier the Wizards surprised the Heat by winning 105-101 to win their second game of the season. In the rematch in Miami, the Heat then crushed the Wizards by 30. This time around former Heat PG, Garrett Temple will lead the Wizards (unless John Wall uses this game for his return) but pace will determine victory. If the Heat are allowed to play fast, Washington won’t keep up, but if the Wizards can slow it down and use their size advantage the game could get very interesting.
