It’s March, and that means it’s almost tournament time, and the NBA Draft is less than four months away.
As die-hard college basketball fans and casual observers alike watch game after game and see countless numbers of prospects showcase their abilities, NBA scouts are putting the finishing touches on their scouting reports. Every March some prospects play themselves into or out of the first round, but for many others their stock has been cemented.
Over the summer there was plenty of buzz around NBA circles that Indiana sophomore Cody Zeller was a leading contender to be the first pick in the 2013 NBA Draft. Scouts and executives raved about Zeller’s offensive repertoire and polish. As the NBA looks for skilled bigs that can face the basket, Zeller was seen as a player who could come in and immediately contribute. Some teams viewed Zeller as a center while others thought he was a power forward, but the consensus was Zeller would be an impact player on the offensive end.
At the same time, Hoosiers shooting guard Victor Oladipo was seen as a complimentary perimeter who could play solid defense but was likely a four-year player. One scout I spoke to compared Oladipo to Bruce Bowen and felt he projected to a rotational player who could possibly start on NBA team sandwiched between very good players on the perimeter.
When it comes to the NBA Lottery, teams tend to pick the player with the most upside.
Herein lies the problem for Zeller, a prospect who lacks elite athleticism that teams covet and has no clearly defined position, whereas Oladipo has great length and explosive athleticism for a guard. An argument can be made that the NBA is more open to non-traditional lineups and using analytics to determine who the best five-man lineup is.
As the Hoosiers have been ranked at or near the top of college basketball, Oladipo’s development on the offensive end of the court has been noticed by scouts. This season Oladipo has improved in every offensive category, including a 16% increase in his field goal percentage, a 28% increase on his 3-point field goal percentage, as well as jumps in points and assists per game.
Zeller, on the other hand, has seen a slight decrease in his field goal percentage, 5%, and marginal improvement in other offensive categories.
While an argument can be made that early in the season Zeller was the main focus of opponents, a player worthy of the top pick should be able to find opportunities and command touches. Four times this season Zeller has shot under 37% from the fiel,d and in those games looked ordinary — something teams in the top-5 of the draft will be skittish about.
Another concern of NBA teams is measuring a player’s athleticism and physical gifts to ensure they are not overmatched. With Oladipo, he has proven in the Big 10 and non-conference game he can match up with guards or small forwards and with his motor can be a potential lockdown defender.
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Zeller was recently embarrassed by Minnesota’s Trevor Mbakwe in a loss, which one scout said, “[Zeller] looked bad out there. He was uncomfortable with Mbakwe’s physicality and athleticism. What’s he going to do when he face Haslem, Kenneth Faried, or Serge Ibaka?”
Another key factor teams will want to know during the pre-draft process is how dedicated both players are to improving their games. With Oladipo, one merely needs to watch game film from his freshman and sophomore seasons to see how hard he worked on his jumper and ball handling.