For many casual college basketball fans, March is the month they “first” decide to check in on the madness. Everyone across the country is familiar with Indiana, Duke and even Gonzaga; but if you are going to fill out your bracket, bet the tournament games or watch with a knowledge of both teams participating, you have to get to know “the darlings.”
Before I start going through a few of the “upset-minded” teams on this list, let me go through a few teams in the past few years who have played and succeeded under this title.
As much as we appreciate teams like Lehigh and Norfolk State from last year’s tournament, these were one-game upsets. The goal of finding value in a team is to try and have them win a minimum of two games in the tournament.
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The highest seed to advance to the Sweet 16was the 13th seeded Bobcats of Ohio and the 11th seeded Wolfpack of North Carolina State in 2012. Ironically enough, both teams came out of the same region and only lost by a combined 11 points in the Sweet 16.
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04E0aOAOonw&start=871&end=905]
Xavier is a team that would have to be added to this list. They entered the tournament last year as a 10 seed, beat Notre Dame in the first round and was lucky enough to have Lehigh beat Duke; but in this type of format, luck usually has to be involved. For Ohio to make the Sweet 16 last year, they “needed” South Florida to beat Temple as a 12 seed. I am not saying Ohio could not have beaten Temple, but it sure made it easier to play a team more on their level of the bracket.
In 2011, four double-digit seeded teams made the Sweet 16 (Marquette, Richmond, VCU and Florida State) and only one of them advanced: VCU. Mostly because Florida State and VCU played each other, but Shaka Smart showed his worth winning his next game as well and taking them to the Final Four. I most remember this run for Smarts’ creative inbounds play against Florida State that basically won them the game.
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcWMeOQtubw&start=251&end=280]
Lets now get into some potential dark-horses for the 2013 edition of the Conference Tournaments and March Madness.
Stephen F. Austin
Record: 26-3 (16-2), RPI: 66
Coach: Danny Kaspar (’00-Present)
Key Wins Out Of Conference: @ Oklahoma, @ Long Beach State
Projected: 14 Seed
Odd School Fact: Student Section is named the Purple Haze
Status: Play in Semifinals (Southland) on Friday 3/15
Stephen F. Austin is a very interesting case for the NCAA Tournament, as long as they take care of business in the Southland Conference Tournament. Their biggest competition will be Northwestern State and Oral Roberts, who are 1-3 against SFA this season. Stephen F. Austin’s biggest seller for March Madness has to be their stellar play on the defensive side of the ball. Using a statistic on the college basketball website KenPom called AdjD, which basically calculates defensive efficiency against an average D-1 opponent, the Lumberjacks rank 7th in the country. Obviously playing in one of the 10 worst conferences based on efficiency in out of conference play can be used to defuse all the pretty defensive numbers they’ve put up, but if Stephen F. Austin can survive conference play they could be a nightmare for the right team come the round of 68.
Weber State
Record: 24-5 (18-2), RPI: 96
Coach: Randy Rahe (’06-Present)
Key Wins Out Of Conference: @ Dayton
Projected: 15 Seed
Odd School Fact: Current Portland Blazers PG Damian Lillard went here
Status: Play in Quarterfinals (Big Sky) on Thursday 3/14
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F22m8lMMFaU&start=865&end=925]
Weber State goes into the Big Sky Tournament on an 11-game winning streak overall and a 10-game winning streak in conference.
Randy Rahe and Wildcats have not been to the NCAA Tournament since 2007 and their first test will probably come in the Big Sky semifinals against North Dakota (if they can beat Southern Utah). Weber State has beaten North Dakota by a combined 47 points in two meetings this year, but beating a team that third and final time is always the biggest test. If Weber State were to acquire an automatic bid to the field of 68, they will most likely have to go through a Montana team has had to deal with some key injuries recently. The Grizzlies have been without Will Cherry and Mathias Ward for about 5 games, where they are 4-1, but lacking the killer instinct that gives Weber State their shot.
Since the Wildcats’ last loss, they have outscored their opponents by 14.36 points per game. Weber State is ranked first in the Big Sky conference in offensive and defensive efficiency as well as offensive and defensive field goal efficiency.
Bucknell
Record: 27-5 (12-2), RPI: 96
Coach: Dave Paulsen (’08-Present)
Key Wins Out Of Conference: @ Purdue, vs George Mason, (N) New Mexico State, vs La Salle
Projected: 12 Seed
Odd School Fact: In 2005, became first Patriot League team to win an NCAA Tournament game
Status: Play in Championship (Patriot) on Wednesday 3/13
Bucknell last played in the NCAA Tournament in 2011, where they played the Kansas Jayhawks in the opening round and lost 81-52. Bucknell got very close to playing in the tournament last year, but fell short in the Patriot League Championship game to Lehigh. Lehigh then became one of the tournament’s best stories when they knocked off Duke in the opening round. The Bison go into the Patriot League Championship on Wednesday on a 6-game winning streak, with their last loss coming against upcoming opponent Lafayette.
Bucknell has a three-statistic formula that I believe could be a recipe for success come tournament time. They are ranked 9th in the country in assist-to-turnover ratio, 35th in free-throw rate and are in the top 10 in four defensive efficiency categories (opp. Effective FG%, opp. Two point %, opp. Shooting % & opp. Shooting efficiency.