NCAA Tournament Line Movement on Gambling Spreads

If you look at the differences between well seeded team and most value to win the whole tournament it is hard to look away from Marquette, who opened at 25/1 to win it all as a three-seed in the East Region. I must note that Marquette suspiciously opened up as only a (-4) point favorite over the 13th-seeded Wildcats of Davidson and that is historically a bad sign for a lower seeded team favorite by such a small margin.

While doing research for upsets in your bracket, you should remember how effectively each seed performs historically straight up in the tournament:

16: 0-112

15: 6-106

14: 16-96

13: 24-88

12: 41-91

11: 44-88

BRACKET CHALLENGE: $75,000 TO WINNER; $100K PRIZE POOL

Going into the NCAA Tournament, here is a list of some of the most efficient teams against the spread so far this season. Being able to not only win enough games to make the dance, but cover the spread in the process shows resiliency.

Miami: 20-9-1

St Louis: 21-10

Villanova: 19-10-1

North Carolina: 20-12

Louisville: 20-13-1

Ohio State: 19-11-1

Butler: 19-13

Creighton: 18-13-1

Kansas: 19-14

The key to tournament success comes from efficiency off your home court. Demonstrated throughout this entire regular season, winning at home versus a more talented and composed team is something that happen every single week. What separates teams this time of year is winning on the road and on neutral courts…here is a list of the top ATS road teams (added a filter: must be .500 or better straight up on the road to make the list).

Temple: 10-4 ATS & 9-5 SU

Butler: 10-6 ATS & 11-6 SU

Montana: 9-4-2 ATS & 10-5 SU

Louisville: 9-5 ATS & 10-4 SU

New Mexico: 8-5 ATS & 9-4 SU

A first round matchup with a very interesting statistical discrepancy is Creighton and Cincinnati, a 10-7 struggle from the Midwest Region. The Blue Jays opened up as a (-2) point favorite and the line has already ballooned to (-3/-3.5) over the Bearcats. Creighton has the 6^th best AdjO (adjusted offense) in the country and Cincinnati has the 15^th best AdjD and to be honest that is only the tip of the iceberg to why this side of the ball will be the most interesting aspect of this game.

When Creighton Has The Ball (In D-1 Ranks):