Teams that reached the Sweet 16 averaged more than five rebounds per game more than the opposition, which makes a lot of sense. Creating and denying second-chance opportunities usually lead to successful outcomes. Michigan State, Arizona and Oregon have by far the best rebounding numbers over the first two tournament games, which could loom large in its Sweet 16 matchups. Arizona’s opponent, Ohio State, is one of the four teams left with a negative rebounding margin. Florida Gulf Coast, LaSalle and Wichita State are the others, with the latter two teams matching up with each other this week.
Another important indicator of success is free throw margin. Some bitter fans, many whose brackets have probably been busted, would attribute this difference to poor officiating, but a 33-game sample size showed that a successful March team took nearly six more free throws than its opponents.
The top two teams in free throw margins, Syracuse and Indiana, play each other on Thursday so you should expect an aggressive and physical battle from Washington.
Arizona and LaSalle are the only two teams left in the field with negative free throw margins, which could hinder their success going forward.
Then after you get to the free throw line, teams actually have to hit their free throws to close, or get back into, tightly contested games. It explains why Marquette, which has the best free throw percentage so far, eked out two extremely close wins over Davidson and Butler to get to the regional round. Kansas and Michigan, opponents later this week, have the next best free throw percentages. Florida’s major red flag is its team free throw percentage, which is by far the worst in the field. It could even be the determining factor in a close game with Florida Gulf Coast, which has become everyone’s favorite team.
Keep these stats in mind when you’re watching the Sweet 16 games on Thursday and Friday.
Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle and a writer for Football.com. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.
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