Featuring picks and comments by Rob Dudek
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Yesterday we warned you not to pay big bucks for Roy Halladay and called his mound opponent Matt Harvey our best bet of the night. As one of Doc’s biggest fans and former neighbors, it was sad to see him working so hard with such poor results; he needed 99 pitches to get through four mediocre innings. The Mets have an ace in Harvey (7 IP, 9 K) — that’s 19 K and just four hits allowed in two brilliant starts.
So much for automatically playing all SP against the Yankees, who rocked our Monday pick Ubaldo Jimenez (and four relievers) with a 13-hit barrage that included three homers. Betting on whoever pitches against the Astros continues to be a solid angle; I had no faith at all in Joe Saunders last night, but Houston’s anemic bats made the lefty junkballer look great.
Today, there are MLB leagues that close at 1:05, and include all 13 games. Other leagues close at 7:05; those won’t include the Jays-Tigers matinee or a 6:40 start for the Dodgers in San Diego.
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Best Bets (Pitchers)
Cliff Lee ($17,705) threw a 2-hitter with 8 K at the Braves in his opener to earn 13.8 fantasy points and deserves the high salary. However, it makes him a risky play. Everything must go right for a pitcher to justify spending that much.
Gio Gonzalez ($15,169) is also no bargain but I think he will outduel Jake Peavy ($13,530) in the only interleague matchup. Very few of the White Sox hitters are familiar with the lefty’s stuff.
My esteemed colleague likes Anibal Sanchez, “…underpriced at $12,219 and the tougher hitting conditions will blunt the Jays’ homerun prowess,” but I see that game as a low-scoring tossup. Brandon Morrow ($11,601) struck out eight Indians in his first start, and the Tribe have been raking against everyone else. It’s a difficult assignment against the dangerous Tigers hitters, but when healthy, Morrow’s arsenal can be dominant.
Best Bets (Hitters)
First, let’s mention Ryan Braun ($13,037) who is priced like two hitters. I didn’t think he would play last night after missing three games with a sore neck, but he went 3-4 with a couple of doubles. He qualifies as “most probable to succeed” against Cubs southpaw Travis Wood, but for me “best bet” implies value and if you pay that much for any bat, your lineup is weakened elsewhere. Still, especially if the wind is blowing out again at Wrigley, he could have another monster game.
You should be following Robert Dudek on Twitter. Logical opinions in the morning can change during the day, and he’s providing updates. For example, yesterday afternoon: “…Strong breeze out to LF today in Wrigley. Advise benching Estrada and E Jackson,” followed a short time later with more great advice. “Braun is starting. He is expensive, but with wind blowing out, it may be a good speculative play.”
The ultimate risk/reward guy is Michael Morse ($8,793) who mashes lefties but is also strikeout-prone. Erik Bedard ($10,375) might fan him three times, or give up a couple of bombs.
I’m not crazy about any of the top-priced bats today, though Alex Gordon ($10,574) is tempting and Ian Kinsler ($10,180) has been hot. My strategy will be to use three SP for about $35,000 and plug in the best available bats for an average of just over $7,000.