Live Longshots (Pitchers)
For a risk-reward pick, consider Bartolo Colon ($8,174). “No longer a strikeout machine, he can spot his plus fastball anywhere he wants. The pitchers’ park works in his favor; the Tigers (best offense in the AL) just traveled across the continent, so they may not be a sharp as usual.”
J.A. Happ ($10,275) is not the most famous Toronto starter, nor the best-paid, but his results have been the most encouraging so far. Rob calls the southpaw “extremely underrated” and I drafted him in more than one traditional league.
The inconsistent Luis Mendoza ($7,278) pitched quite well in his seasonal bow but is not someone either of us recommend often. The angle tonight is a rock-bottom price, while the vaunted Jays’ bats are still in hibernation, with Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind a combined 7-for-55. There’s no guarantee they will wake up tonight.
Live Longshots (Hitters)
Rob’s value play of the day is Justin Smoak. “A low price of $4,310, the unknown disposition of Yu Darvish and the platoon edge make this a low-risk play.”
Juan Uribe ($4,271) has homered in consecutive games, winning last night’s donnybrook with a pinch-hit blast. Against young lefty Patrick Corbin tonight, Uribe might start at 3B and at less than a third of Miguel Cabrera’s salary, he’s tempting.
Dudek notes that the Astros bats have been heating up and Tommy Hanson hasn’t looked good. “Consider the crop of young Astros as a group. C Jason Castro ($5,802), 2B Jose Altuve ($6,640), 1B Chris Carter ($6,133) and OF J.D. Martinez ($5,987) are all underpriced.” So is Brett Wallace at a mere $3,048, if he’s in the lineup. You can use no more than four players from one team if you like this approach.
Players to Avoid
The familiar “success cycle” has driven up the price on Coco Crisp ($12,255) far beyond the value he has demonstrated over a 12-year career. Homering in four straight games was a fluke, and he was a tremendous bargain in the Astros series. Don’t pay retail now.
Yu Darvish ($18,901) is still priced according to his near-perfect game but struggled to beat the Angels last time out, walking four in just five innings. He was bothered by a blister on his finger — the type of nuisance that can be chronic — and is a poor risk at that salary.
Pitchers who are hittable and don’t strike out many are never bargains. Vance Worley ($8,211) will be facing the Mets tonight in wintry conditions; even if you “need” a cheap SP to fit under the cap, he’s a poor bet.
We tipped Julio Teheran ($9,417) last time out, but he struggled. Sometimes, it’s good strategy to stay with such a player, but today he must deal with one of the NL’s top offenses, so the price is too high compared to the risk.
Michael Morse ($8,211) doesn’t have a red cross beside his name (yet) but the lefty-masher has a fractured pinky. He may not need a DL stint but don’t use him for the next week.
I’m on Twitter @SheridanFantasy and be sure to follow Rob Dudek; when our morning picks change during the day, he provides updates.