Featuring picks and comments by Rob Dudek
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Happy Patriots Day to our American friends and readers. Why don’t the Celtics get their own holiday? They are a great franchise too. The poor Red Sox not only have to work today, they had an early wakeup call, hosting the Rays at 11:00 Eastern. While that game is ignored in daily fantasy leagues, at 7:05 we have eight to choose from.
Yesterday was an excellent day for me on the Street, very nearly a great one. Until Wei-Yin Chen tired in the sixth inning, I was “alive” to win two big contests. Finished fifth, tenth and 15th (out of 330) with my three teams in the $2 GPP to win $55 in consolation prizes, and in the 165-man $5 event, I earned $90 by coming fourth and 13th. Scoreboard-watching was fun until 10 p.m.; if Chen had beaten the Yankees my profit would have doubled. Thanks to Joey Votto, Josh Hamilton and my $4,592 bargain Chris Johnson for some timely hitting.
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Pitching Matchups
We are tossing out the usual Best Bets and Live Longshots format for pitchers today. Here’s Rob Dudek with comments on every SP to help you make those tough decisions.
1) Lance Lynn ($11,505) vs. James McDonald ($10,829: Lynn is my VALUE PLAY OF THE DAY. He was great last time out and faces an improving but still far from top- level Pirates offense. McDonald can be brilliant and horrible — sometimes in the same game — and the Cards’ batters have done an excellent job of wearing down opposing starters. He’s a decent speculative play because of his big game potential.
2) Gavin Floyd ($10,596) vs. Mark Buerhle ($7,619): Floyd should outperform his price, mostly because the Jays’ lineup is being patched together with duct tape. Buerhle is a temptation against his former teammates but I will pass. He needs to locate with precision to be effective and he hasn’t yet. Rogers Centre is unforgiving of a pitcher’s mistakes.
3) Cliff Lee ($19,104) vs. Bronson Arroyo ($9,814): Lee is “uberpriced,” meaning he must dominate to justify the cost. In Cincy against a good lineup is a tough ask of the Cy Young candidate. Arroyo’s challenge is easier, as the Philly bats have been sleepy so far. Still, the park will work against a high score for Arroyo, so the upside is limited.
4) Jordan Zimmermann ($14,631) vs. Wade LeBlanc ($10,979): Zimmermann is VALUE PLAY #2, facing a very weak Marlins lineup in Miami at means the odds are in his favor and the price is fair. LeBlanc has the park edge too, but the Nationals must be ticked off at being swept by the Braves and are the likely winners.
5) Joe Blanton ($8,824) vs. Kevin Correia ($6,638): Blanton is today’s bargain play, but as with most of those, there is a significant risk of a complete blowup — even against the Twins. Correia has an ultra-low price and is worth a shot if you are going with an expensive batting lineup. However, this game is a weather risk, with cold temperatures expected.
6) Dillon Gee ($8,977) vs. Juan Nicasio ($10,153): Gee is reasonably priced, but Coors Field and those Rockies bats are a concern. Strikeouts should be limited. Nicasio is a good bet for the win, but the Mets have a streaky bunch of hitters so the threat of a blowup is higher than usual and the price may not be a bargain.
7) Erik Bedard ($11,237) vs. Tommy Milone ($13,369): So far so good on the comeback trail for Bedard. His innings should still be limited so the price here is only fair, not a bargain. Milone is rounding into form — the danger man for him will be Chris Carter. Both pitchers are priced near their true value.
8) Eric Stults ($10,236) vs. Chad Billingsley ($14,403): Stults won’t strike out many, so his upside is limited. The Dodger bats are warming up and may soon become a real threat. Billingsley is a similar play to Zimmerman; priced below 15k, in a pitchers’ park against mediocre opposition.
I’m using Lynn, Billingsley and Zimmerman for a total of $40,539 — going with Floyd instead of one of the higher-priced duo would get your cost down to about 36.5K for pitching.