Featuring picks and comments by Rob Dudek
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Every MLB team is scheduled to play, but the 12:10 Eastern start (Royals at Braves) and a game at 3:35 (HOU at OAK) will not be included in the majority of leagues. There are plenty of early-closing events that do include them, but we’re going to focus primarily on the 7:05 contests.
One of the evening games is supposed to be played in Denver, where the forecast is for sub-freezing temperatures all day, with a 90% chance of snow this evening. The Mets and Rockies did get in a doubleheader yesterday (a total of 29 runs were scored) but as attractive as their hitters are tonight, there is a significant risk of cancellation. If you love Carlos Gonzalez ($12,908) or David Wright ($11,055) it is good to have a backup plan.
Tuesday was not our greatest handicapping performance. That happens in any sport, and baseball has the most day-to-day variance. For example, Ryan Braun had a 1.714 OPS against Barry Zito, then went 0-for-5 with four strikeouts. I played several Cubs’ RH batters against Derek Holland, who spun a 2-hit gem over seven innings in Wrigley.
The beauty of playing in daily leagues is that tonight is a whole new season. Even a “terrible” night (failing to cash) is irrelevant to the rest of the week and we have learned to shrug off the unexpected, like the Phillies and Reds combining to go scoreless for 8 ½ innings in one of the best hitters’ parks in the majors.
If you used Homer Bailey, what a shame that game was suspended. His 8 IP, 2 H, 10 K masterpiece didn’t count. The rules are clear: “If a game is not played to completion within the specified scoring period (postponed, cancelled or suspended) no stats will count from this game and all players involved will contribute zero fantasy stats.”
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Best Bets (Pitchers)
There’s an exciting pitcher’s duel in Seattle between Max Scherzer ($16,887) and Felix Hernandez ($15,877) who Rob cautiously likes. “The price is high and the Tigers have the best lineup in the AL, but if Felix is right he can dominate anyone. Still, the range of outcome here is extremely high. Scherzer is a similar play; potentially great but that price means a high risk of underperformance.”
The more conservative play of the day is C.C. Sabathia. $16,598 is fair value for a pitcher so consistent and though it’s a hitters’ park, none of the Diamondbacks know him. Paul Goldschmidt ($9,854) and A.J. Pollock ($6,045) could ask injured Aaron Hill for advice, but he’s a .107 “hitter” in 28 AB against the big man. (Rob and I can rib Hill, who we have known since his Double-A season.)
This will be a stiff test for the “new” Justin Masterson, who should outperform the $11,349 price tag. Maybe not by a lot, as Red Sox hitters usually make a pitcher work — and that elevates pitch counts. Still good value for six or seven quality IP.
“Matt Moore ($15,951) pitches up in the zone so the flyball friendly Oriole Park at Camden Yards is not the best place for him to ply his trade, cautions our analyst. “The price is high, but 10-12 Ks are a realistic expectation and the risk of a total blowup is very low.”