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Western Conference
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets
It will be interesting to see how Oklahoma City deals with its former star James Harden, who has blossomed into one of the league’s premier offensive players with the Rockets. They key for the Thunder to limiting Harden is for Thabo Sefolosha to try to contain the superstar. Sefolosha’s 103 defensive rating is his best mark since his 2006-2007 rookie season, but Harden has fared quite well against his former team this season. He’s hit 11 of 20 from three against the Thunder this season, and his 29.3 points per game is his second highest total against a Western Conference playoff foe. It’ll be up to Sefolosha to rein Harden in.
Houston’s pace of play is what allowed them to be the second highest scoring team in the NBA, and a large part of that has had to do with Chandler Parsons. Parsons emerged as one of the most improved players this season and actually leads the NBA in effective field goal percentage, which weights individual shooting percentages to make three-pointers more important than two-point baskets. The following illustrates Parsons’ progression from his rookie season:
| Parsons | Minutes | PER | FG% | 3FG % | eFG% | Points | Rebs | Assists | Win Shares | FT % |
| 2011-2012 | 28.6 | 13.3 | 45.2 | 33.7 | 50.6 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 55.1 |
| 2012-2013 | 36.3 | 15.3 | 48.6 | 38.5 | 56.7 | 15.5 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 7 | 72.9 |
Pundits, analysts and prognosticators will all hone in on Harden, Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin as Houston’s key players, but it’ll be Parsons’ efficient shooting that could keep the Rockets competitive in these games.
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San Antonio Spurs vs Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers may not have Kobe Bryant (possibly Steve Nash as well), but Los Angeles still has the very formidable frontcourt of Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol to bring to the AT&T Center. However, San Antonio has a really underrated frontcourt as well, with Kawhi Leonard and Tiago Splitter aiding Tim Duncan. That trio is one of the two frontcourts in the NBA (along with Indiana) to have three of the top 12 players in defensive rating. Splitter can hold his own on the offensive end as well, and has more than his fair share of top-20 league ranks:
| Tiago Splitter | Numbers | League Rank |
| FG % | 55.9 | 7 |
| True Shooting % | 60.7 | 7 |
| Win Shares/48 | 0.197 | 8 |
| O Rating | 118.2 | 9 |
| eFG % | 55.9 | 9 |
| D Rating | 100 | 15 |
Despite all this talent for San Antonio at the forward and center spots, their team now undoubtedly runs through point guard Tony Parker. With Nash hobbled by injury, as odd as this sounds, Steve Blake has been the Nate Robinson of the Western Conference over the last month or so. He’s given Los Angeles an enormous lift as the April starter and excelled as the Lakers made their playoff push:
| Steve Blake | Minutes | Shots | FG % | 3FG % | Points |
| February | 19.1 | 4.46 | 46.6 | 45.5 | 5.8 |
| March | 26.6 | 6.27 | 42.6 | 44.3 | 7.3 |
| April | 39.3 | 9.75 | 42.3 | 40.7 | 12.6 |
The Lakers are 29-16 when Blake plays and 10-3 when he starts. I’m not sure if benching Nash for Blake would be the right move, but it won’t be easy for Mike D’Antoni to sit Blake the way he’s been playing.
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Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors
Two of the top seven scoring teams in the league will go head-to-head in this playoff matchup, so we know the scores will be high, but it’s also a battle of two of the top rebounding teams in the league as well. Denver and Golden State both grabbed 45 boards per game, tied for second in the league behind Indiana, with both teams in the top eight in rebound differential.
So what would separate Denver from the pack? Perhaps the offensive efficiency of its bigs. Both Kosta Koufos and Kenneth Faried are in the top 20 in the league in offensive rating, and they could be the key to Denver advancing to the conference semis. Koufos is sixth in the league in offensive rating, 13th in block percentage and commits the 14th fewest turnovers per 100 possessions in the league. The latter statsitic is important given the Warriors’ +1.9 turnovers per game, tied for second in the league during the regular season.
One of the few advantages Golden State has is the best player on the floor. Stephen Curry has a whole lot to prove in his first playoff series as a pro, and he has to lead his team if they want to thrive against the team with the league’s best home record (38-3). Curry’s stats are undoubtedly impressive, and the postseason is where he needs to back it up.
| Steph Curry | Numbers | League Rank |
| FT % | 90 | 2 |
| 3 FG % | 45.3 | 3 |
| O Win Shares | 8.4 | 6 |
| Win Shares | 11.2 | 7 |
| Points Per Gm | 22.9 | 7 |
| Points | 1786 | 7 |
| Field Goals | 626 | 7 |
| Minutes | 2983 | 7 |
| Assists | 539 | 9 |
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Los Angeles Clippers vs Memphis Grizzlies
For those of you who remember last year’s incredible seven-game first round series between the two teams, you must be delighted that these two teams are at it again this season. Los Angeles’ star power against Memphis’ imposing front line. And the man on the Clippers tasked with dealing with Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and company is Blake Griffin. It’s a big series for the former top overall pick, especially given his struggles against Memphis this season. Look at his regular season performances against the other Western Conference playoff teams:
| Blake Griffin | Games | FG % | Points | Rebounds |
| Thunder | 3 | 57.1 | 24.7 | 8.7 |
| Spurs | 4 | 45.1 | 17 | 7.5 |
| Nuggets | 3 | 48.6 | 14 | 5.7 |
| Grizzlies | 4 | 44.4 | 13.8 | 7 |
| Warriors | 4 | 47.2 | 18.8 | 8.8 |
| Lakers | 4 | 53.1 | 21.3 | 8.8 |
| Rockets | 3 | 52.9 | 17 | 6 |
| Average | 3.57 | 49.8 | 18.1 | 7.5 |
As you can see, Griffin has his worst field goal and scoring numbers against Memphis among playoff teams and is well below his season average against Western playoff qualifiers. While the Clippers worry about the Grizzlies’ bigs, Memphis’ major concern has to be Chris Paul. How do you defend the best ppoint guard in the league?
Common sense would dictate that you defend your opponents’ best player with your best perimeter defender.
And for Memphis, that’s Tony Allen. No guard in the league had a better defensive rating than Allen’s 98.4. In fact, the only other guard in Basketball-Reference’s top 20 is his teammate Mike Conley, who’s 17th. For the Grizzlies to advance this time around, they need their guards to play like the defensive stalwarts they have become.
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Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle and a writer for Football.com. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.